research topics on housing finance

• Understanding Poverty
• Financial Sector

Housing Finance

Key messages.

• Housing plays a key socio-economic role and represents the main wealth of the poor in most developing countries
• 3 billion people will need new housing and basic urban infrastructure by 2030, according to UN-Habitat. Without available and affordable housing financing solutions, many urban poor can't get decent formal housing
• Our housing finance offerings are closely linked with the capital markets agenda as support for long term finance funding channels and mechanisms and also with the pensions and insurance agenda as key institutional investor sources for long term debt

Housing plays a key socio-economic role and represents the main wealth of the poor in most developing countries. The UN estimates that the global population will reach 8.5 billion by 2030, with almost 60% of the population living in urban centers. An estimated 3 billion people will need new housing and basic urban infrastructure by 2030. Against the backdrop of rapid urbanization putting pressure on housing delivery systems, many urban poor will not be able to afford formal housing without proper housing finance solutions. This puts the issue of housing finance at the forefront of the global development agenda.

We assist client countries in developing and deepening resilient and affordable housing finance markets that are accessible to the lower & informal income and middle-income households. This requires managing risks and regulating the lending industry, as well as implementing targeted and fiscally responsible policy interventions. The business line is important because it provides economic stimulus across the economy – leverage on growth, investment, and jobs – through the constructive value chain, helps in maintaining overall financial stability (housing finance markets representing a large share of the financial sector), and addresses the issue of urban poverty.

Housing finance is also a critical component of the financial markets deepening process with complex capital markets products, and linkages to the domestic and global institutional investor base.

The Global Housing Finance team works closely with colleagues from the Urban, Resilience, Territorial and Land GP, the Digital Development GP, the Energy and Extractives GP and IFC FIG and MAS.

What We Do:

We work on a variety of housing finance development challenges by providing client countries with the tools to build and expand housing finance markets, fund housing finance (often through the mobilization of long-term mortgage securities where possible), develop sustainable and affordable housing finance markets, and respond effectively to housing finance crises.

We focus on creating systems that address the needs of households across different income levels and developing solutions that are scalable, sustainable, and oriented to the private sector. Our work in housing finance helps clients provide market-based safety nets, and fund long-term investments to support sustainable and inclusive economic growth.

Core interventions include:

• Developing Resilient Housing Finance Markets:  We conduct diagnostic analysis, advise on legal & regulatory frameworks and policy reforms, support institution building to create a sustainable and efficient housing finance system, and work on other building blocks of housing finance markets development. This work includes support to our clients in understanding and implementing fintech innovations in housing finance product development, delivery, and legal and regulatory frameworks.
• Designing and Implementing Long-Term Funding Solutions:  We provide solutions to improve access to long-term finance through capital markets instruments such as liquidity facilities and covered mortgage bonds as well enhanced systems to incentivize longer-term savings. We also help diversify long-term funding options, including through local currency bond markets.
• Expanding Access to Lower-Income and Informal Markets:  We enhance access to lower-income and informal workers’ segments of the population through credit markets, housing microfinance, rental housing, residential leasing, contractual savings, effective targeted subsidies, and guarantee schemes.
• Addressing Obstacles to Affordable Housing:  In addition to the finance side that affects the demand, affordability reflects the cost of housing and its supply, so increasingly, we work on various supply side issues: titling, land use and land infrastructure issues, construction finance, and housing policies including supply subsidies. Furthermore, we apply innovative thinking to reduce costs – both financial and environmental costs – of formal housing through the introduction of new, cheaper, technologies and supporting energy-efficient buildings. 
• Climate change agenda in housing finance: Cognizant of the significant contribution of the housing sector to global GHG emissions, of up to 40% of the total in some countries, we provide policy, legal and regulatory support to client countries and globally on setting up sustainable financial solutions for affordable and impactful “green” housing refurbishment and construction in support of reaching the Paris COP targets.
• Urban Development
• EVENT 9th Global Affordable Housing Conference May 31, 2023
• EVENT Constructing and Financing Affordable Housing Across Asia Apr 02, 2019
• EVENT 8th Global Housing Finance Conference May 30, 2018

Featured Projects

• Egypt Inclusive Housing Finance Program
• India Low-Income Housing Finance
• Nigeria Housing Finance Development Program
• Tanzania Housing Finance Project

Loic Chiquier

Simon Walley

Housing For All by 2030

A New Life in Safe Homes

Explore our research and analysis into the housing market, including pricing, supply and financing.

The authors shed light on the role of competitive forces in how banks manage emerging risks and relevant supervisory challenges.

Dasol Kim , Luke M. Olson and Toan Phan

Winchester, Virginia, is known for its blend of history, culture and natural beauty, making it a popular destination for visitors and a vibrant community for its residents. The Winchester Metro Area is the fastest growing metro area in the state of Virginia, with its population growing at almost five times the rate of Virginia as a whole. In May, our Community Conversations team visited the Winchester area to learn more about their economic strengths and opportunities.

Evidence from Hurricane Irma suggests that weather events can significantly impact mortgage defaults.

The effects of classifying neighborhoods by riskiness of home lending in the 1930s may still have modest effects on interest rates and fees today.

Andrew Ellul , David Marques , Horacio Sapriza , Alex Sclip and Jack Taylor

This post looks into the components of private fixed investment and discusses what recent monthly data could be telling us for the outlook of this piece of GDP.

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Would Fed rate cuts improve the outlook for homebuyers? This post examines the potential connection between policy rates and housing affordability.

An increase in multifamily housing supply could be contributing to a softening in rents, but historical patterns suggest an upward pressure on rent growth could be in store.

Taylor Bennett and Kim Reed describe how community development organizations in West Virginia use land banks to bring new economic activity to abandoned property. Bennett is executive director of the West Virginia Land Stewardship Corporation and Reed is executive director of the Nitro Land Reuse Authority.

There's a diverging trend in the recovering housing market. While new single-family housing construction is increasing, multi-family housing unit construction is on the decline.

An a la carte compensation model could improve the performance of the housing brokerage sector.

Borys Grochulski and Zhu Wang

The authors demonstrate how the real estate agent compensation structure deviates from cost basis and may lead to elevated home prices, overused agent services, and prolonged home searches.

Differences in permitting activity, land use regulation, and land availability contribute to variation in how rapidly the local housing supply is growing in communities throughout the Fifth District.

Adam Scavette and Sierra Stoney

Kartik Athreya, the Richmond Fed's research director, answers questions submitted by listeners about housing, the Fed's bond purchases, interest rate targeting, and artificial intelligence.

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Tim Sablik, host of the Speaking of the Economy podcast, reviews the five most popular episodes of 2023 that explored topics beyond inflation and monetary policy.

The Richmond Fed Community Conversations team visited two South Carolina counties that are partnering with schools to prepare a skilled workforce.

Richmond Fed leaders and Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman heard business and community leaders' perspectives on the state of the local economy.

Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin and Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will lead a discussion about the lingering impact of the pandemic on the economy and the workforce. The general public is invited to listen in, via livestream, as Barkin, Bowman and several special guests explore the challenges and opportunities that exist as the region served by the Richmond Fed continues the transition to a new normal.

Andy Bauer and Danny Twilley discuss the research they are doing to better understand gaps in the housing markets of rural communities and small towns and the unique challenges they face in addressing these gaps. Bauer is vice president and regional executive for the Baltimore branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Twilley is assistant vice president of economic, community and asset development for the Brad and Alys Smith Outdoor Economic Development Collaborative at West Virginia University.

In addition to differences in housing affordability, rural Fifth District households experience differences in housing quality by tenure and income.

Sierra Stoney

Agents for homebuyers are typically paid a percentage of the final sale price, so the more their clients spend on a house, the more money they make.

While the recent decline in rural homeownership affordability has challenged prospective buyers, many existing rural homeowners and renters are also burdened by their housing costs.

Population loss and aging homes have left the city of Baltimore with an abandoned housing problem that policymakers and community leaders continue to address.

Peter M. Dolkart and Adam Scavette

Many use mortgage spreads as a gauge of market stress, but they actually seem to gauge something else.

Grey Gordon

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The Richmond Fed Community Conversations team learned about efforts to pivot in central business districts and achieve collaborative wins in affordable housing during a recent visit to Northern Virginia.

The Fed's monetary tightening over the past year has had an immediate effect on the housing market. But if the Fed didn't act to bring inflation down, we could expect lenders to charge high rates simply to break even in real terms.

Kartik B. Athreya

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Matthew Wells

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Following two years of tight housing market conditions in the Fifth District, indicators suggest that markets are cooling although affordability remains an issue.

Among the topics discussed were income growth volatility, AI's impact on productivity and how housing price changes affect young businesses.

Tim Sablik and Matthew Wells

In this paper, we provide novel theoretical predictions and empirical evidence on how climate risks, specifically the increased risks of coastal flooding due to SLR, affect the mortgage market.

Laura Bakkensen , Toan Phan and Russell Wong

University of Chicago economist on remote work, changes in recruiting, and business startups after the pandemic.

David A. Price

As revealed through data and academic literature, histor­ical inequity in credit access still affects minority borrow­ers today.

Surekha Carpenter and Sierra Stoney

Monetary policy, marriage, college admissions, and discrimination and socioeconomic outcomes were among the topics discussed at our recent conference.

With assistance programs winding down, evictions are on the rise but have not surpassed pre-pandemic levels.

Stephanie Norris

For homebuyers who are still in the market despite higher prices and borrowing rates, their options may be limited as homebuilders focus on clearing backlogs rather than starting new construction.

Renee Haltom offers an overview of economic conditions in Virginia, based on her recent conversations with local contacts and analysis of the data. Haltom is a vice president and regional executive at the Richmond Fed, with responsibility for engagement with businesses and communities in Virginia.

Matt Martin provides an update on economic conditions in North Carolina and South Carolina, based on his recent conversations with local business contacts and analysis of the data. Martin is the regional executive based at the Richmond Fed's Charlotte office.

Numerous factors — including population growth, education, housing, transportation, child care, health, and broadband availability — are shaping the differences in employment outcomes between rural and urban communities.

Stephanie Norris , Jessie Romero , Sierra Stoney and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Since last summer, rising home prices have threatened to push up rent prices, adding pressure to overall inflation. How have actual rents fared and what do the most recent numbers imply for rent inflation going forward?

Evidence highlights the nuanced ways in which participants in the financial markets may be strategically adapting to climate change.

Sierra Latham and Peter Dolkart discuss their work on the availability of affordable housing in small towns and rural communities. Latham is a senior research analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Dolkart is a community development regional manager based in the Richmond Fed's Baltimore office.

Although people often associate high housing costs with urban areas, many households in rural areas also struggle with costly housing

John O'Trakoun discusses the factors that have increased the cost of single-family and multi-unit housing in recent months, as well as what shapes overall supply and demand for housing over the longer term.

Harvard University economist on urbanization, the future of small towns, and "Yes In My Back Yard."

This survey of climate finance research literature highlights key findings and their policy implications.

A decreasing-rate mortgage wouldn't increase its interest rate, but would decline when rates dropped, potentially saving significant refinance costs.

Borys Grochulski

Peter Dolkart discusses what is happening with renters in the Fifth District as state and national moratoriums on evictions wane and COVID-19 infections surge.

The housing market has boomed during the pandemic, but data over the past few months have been more mixed. Is this bumpiness the result of weaker demand or lower supply?

A recent Richmond Fed conference covered housing, Social Security claiming, savings and labor supply related to older households.

John Bailey Jones and David A. Price

The economic fallout of the pandemic has been highly uneven. Low-wage workers were the most severely affected at the outset, and their employment recovery since then has been comparatively sluggish.

Bernie Mazyck and Mark Fessler discuss how the pandemic is contributing to ongoing high volumes of renter evictions in certain parts of our country.

For the housing market, the coronavirus recession in 2020 was unusual: Demand for homes was strong and price growth remained solid.

Roisin McCord

The COVID-19 pandemic has depressed housing security and increased eviction risk for renters in the Fifth District. Although helpful for tenants, some federal pandemic-response provisions are ending in December.

Peter M. Dolkart and Stephanie Norris

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe economic distress in the Fifth District, but the regional housing market has proven remarkably resilient.

Benjamin Lukas Intern (2020)

The Federal Reserve's purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities — launched in response to financial disruptions caused by COVID-19 — appear to have restored smooth market function supporting the continued flow of credit to mortgage borrowers.

The COVID-19 pandemic has put housing stability at the forefront of public policy discussions, and home repair is a critical piece of that conversation. What were total home repair costs in Baltimore prior to the pandemic, and how might COVID-19 impact home repair?

Benjamin Lukas and Eileen Divringi

Researchers and policymakers are wondering whether the economic losses associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will prove temporary or persistent. Examining the housing crisis of 2006—09 may provide some clues.

Felipe F. Schwartzman and Tim Sablik

Young adults have been buying houses at lower rates. This gap between young and older adults is particularly high in Fifth District rural counties.

Ten years after the housing market collapse, activity in the single-family market remains somewhat subdued. Despite rising prices and low inventories, single-family construction has increased very gradually. Are there impediments to new housing supply?

R. Andrew Bauer Vice President and Regional Executive

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker addressed the Global Interdependence Center in Sarasota, Florida.

Jeffrey M. Lacker President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker addressed the Greater Richmond Chamber of Commerce.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker addressed business leaders during a luncheon hosted by the Rotary Club of Charlotte in Charlotte, N.C.

On November 25, 2008, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced it would begin purchasing debt issued and MBS guaranteed by GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to provide monetary stimulus to the housing sector and broader economy.

Renee Haltom and Robert Sharp

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke about the economic outlook Jan. 17, 2014, in remarks to the Richmond chapter of the Risk Management Association.

Foreclosure Crisis and Response: How Homeowners Fared in Reaching Out for Mortgage Assistance

Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, addressed the Council on Foreign Relations on May, 9, 2013, as part of the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks with students and faculty at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa.

This Economic Brief highlights the impact of non-occupant-owner mortgages on the housing crisis.

Karl Rhodes and Breck Robinson

Juan Carlos Hatchondo , Leonardo Martinez and Juan M. Sanchez

Lacker Addresses Dulles Regional Chamber of Commerce, Chantilly, Va.

Renee Haltom and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

Ross Lawrence and Brent C Smith

Breck Robinson and Richard M. Todd

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Cover Story: The Price is Right? Has the financial crisis provided a fatal blow to the efficient market hypothesis?

Andra C. Ghent , Marianna Kudlyak and Stephen Slivinski

Andreas Hornstein

Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Kevin A. Bryan

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "Systemic Risk and the Pursuit of Efficiency"

Cover Story: House Bias The economic consequences of subsidizing homeownership

Esteban Rossi-Hansberg , Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Raymond E. Owens III

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "The Financial Crisis: Toward an Explanation and Policy Response"

Cover Story: Downtown is Dead. Long Live Downtown. America is busy rebuilding its downtowns. But these are not the downtowns of yesterday.

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "Inflation and Unemployment: A Layperson's Guide to the Phillips Curve"

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke December 21, 2005 at the  Charlotte Chamber of Commerce Annual Economic Conference in Charlotte, N.C.

Cover Story: Homeward Bound Housing markets work just fine for most people. But certain markets in the Fifth District aren't producing homes and apartments that working families can afford.

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "Borrowing by U.S. Households"

It is a pleasure to be with you this evening. Most of the speeches I make deal with national economic outlook and Fed monetary policy, and it is refreshing to have an opportunity to talk about something else.

J. Alfred Broaddus President

Articles : Housing Finance

• Data library

The Freddie Mac rate for a 30-year mortgage declined by 0.26 percentage points to 6.47% this…

The Freddie Mac rate for a 30-year mortgage declined by 0.05 percentage points to 6.73% this…

More than half of outstanding mortgages have a rate of 4% or lower, and more than…

The Freddie Mac rate for a 30-year mortgage rose just 1 basis point (0.1 percentage points)…

The Freddie Mac rate for a 30-year mortgage slid 0.12 percentage points to 6.77% this week.

The Freddie Mac rate for a 30-year mortgage slid 0.06 percentage points to 6.89% this week.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that prices slipped in June, causing annual inflation to slow…

The Freddie Mac rate for a 30-year mortgage jumped 0.09 percentage points to 6.95% this week.

The Freddie Mac rate for a 30-year mortgage dropped 0.01 percentage points to 6.86% this week.

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CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF HOUSING FINANCE SECTOR IN INDIA WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THE ASSESSMENT OF HOUSING SHORTAGE

• November 2020

• Indian Institute of Engineering Science and Technology, Shibpur
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Cambridge Centre for Housing & Planning Research

• About CCHPR overview
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• MMC-based housebuilding: Towards a roadmap for customer-centred approaches to POE in the social housing sector
• The role of hostels in ending homelessness: assessing what works?
• Are modular homes a good temporary housing solution for people experiencing homelessness? overview
• The role of modular homes in addressing homelessness: Cambridge’s modular homes
• Digital poverty in the UK overview
• Digital Poverty in the UK Literature Review
• Digital Poverty and Housing Inequality Report
• The relationship between housing inequality and digital exclusion in the UK
• Other publications overview
• Demarginalising’ a territorially stigmatised neighbourhood?: The relationship between governance configurations and trajectories of urban change
• 2021 overview
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• Housing for highly mobile transnational professionals: evolving forms of housing practices in Moscow and London
• Converging interests to protect urban greenery
• International technology transfer through projects: A social construction of technology perspective
• Landguardism in Ghana - examining public perceptions about the driving factors
• The role of housing providers and intermediaries in migrant access to (in)formal housing markets in the New York City
• Towards a well-informed rental housing policy in Ghana
• Walls within walls: examining the variegated purposes for walling in Ghanaian gated communities
• A review of Ageing in place: design, planning and policy response in the Western Asia- Pacific
• Housing for Highly Mobile Transnational Professionals: ’New’ Forms of Housing Practices in Moscow and London
• Housing characteristics and households' experiences with COVID-19 protocols in Ghana
• Using modular housing to address acute housing needs overview
• Insights into the use of modular housing in addressing homelessness: Report
• Insights into the use of modular housing in addressing homelessness: Launch presentation
• Insights into the use of modular and container temporary housing to address homelessness: HSA conference presentation
• 2020 overview
• Tackling digital exclusion: identifying policy and practitioner responses to support digitally excluded households overview
• Cryptocurrency and the Digital Divide
• Beyond Digital: Planning for a Hybrid World
• Mind the gap: the digital divide is getting bigger
• Closing the digital divide: panel presentation
• BBC Look North
• The Quarantini Podcast
• The Shared Ownership Sector in 2020 overview
• SO Resi Shared Ownership 2020
• Modular homes for the homeless overview
• Housing Studies Association Conference 2022
• Modular housing for the homeless: CHIRN presentation
• Modular Homes: resident experiences
• Modular Housing Project: preliminary findings overview
• Modular Housing Project: preliminary findings
• Small-scale modular housing could provide a lifeline for people experiencing homelessness overview
• Download Template
• Housing transformation, rent gap and gentrification in Ghana's traditional houses: Insight from compound houses in Bantama, Ghana
• The Influence of the Belt and Road Initiative in Europe
• Urban informality in the Global North: (il)legal status and housing strategies of Ghanaian migrants in New York City
• Exploring the Financial Implications of Advance Rent Payment and Induced Furnishing of Rental Housing in Ghanaian Cities: The Case of Dansoman, Accra-Ghana
• Residential trajectories of high-skilled transnational migrants in a global city: Exploring the housing choices of Russian and Italian professionals in London
• 2019 overview
• The housing market and the wider economy overview
• Healthy Communities: Place-based built environment interventions to reduce health inequalities by increasing physical activity
• Net zero ready new build housing: benefits and barriers to delivery
• Self-build and custom housebuilding in the UK
• Deploying modular housing in the UK: exploring the benefits and risks for the housebuilding industry overview
• Deploying modular housing in the UK: industry roundtable
• Understanding supply, demand and investment in the market for retirement housing communities in England (Report)
• Infrastructure, placemaking and sustainability
• How can smart technologies meet the demand of an ageing population? overview
• The promises and reality of smart telecare
• Can smart homes meet the needs of our ageing population? The challenges of implementation
• How does the provision of advanced, predictive telecare and smart home technology for older people affect its outcomes? overview
• How does the provision of advanced, predictive telecare and smart home technology for older people affect its outcomes?
• What is the goal of advanced telecare provision for older people? How we define its success will affect how we view its outcomes
• CSaP Impact Hunting overview
• Exploring CSaP's impact
• Understanding the socio-economic inhibitors to the take up of digital innovation in construction overview
• Pre-Manufactured Value: A critical examination of PMV as a performance evaluation metric for the adoption and use of modern methods of construction
• Pre-Manufactured Value: a performance evaluation metric for the adoption and use of MMC
• Final Report: Analysing the social context to transforming construction through digital innovation and offsite construction
• Projects as vehicles for widespread adoption of digital manufacturing technologies in the AEC sector
• Enablers for the adoption and use of BIM in main contractor companies in the UK
• Offsite manufacturing research: A systematic review of methodologies used
• Industry guidance: Successful adoption and use of BIM and OSM
• How countries achieve greater use of offsite manufacturing to build new housing: identifying typologies through institutional theory
• Transforming the construction sector: an institutional complexity perspective
• CamFest 2021: Tackling the housing crisis by transforming construction
• UK Construction Industry: The Transformation Agenda
• Homes UK 2020
• Homes UK 2020: Challenges of BIM implementation
• ARCOM Conference Paper : OSM & Construction Industry Transformation overview
• Conference paper: OSM & Construction Industry Transformation
• 2020 Industry Webinar overview
• Presentation: Enabling factors for the adoption and use of OSM
• Presentation: Socio-cultural and individual inhibitors to the take up of digital innovation and off-site manufacturing in construction
• Presentation: Defining and delivering a digital strategy in a large organisation
• Exploring ways to tackle the challenges of the need for skills and training in the implementation of Building Information Modelling: a case study of two leading UK construction companies overview
• Presentation: Exploring new ways to tackle the challenges of the need for skills and training in the implementation of BIM
• How could better use of data and digital technologies improve the planning system? overview
• Presentation: How could better use of data and digital technologies improve the planning system?
• Tackling the housing crisis through digital technologies and OSM
• State of the nation: sector report (OSM) overview
• Report: State of the nation: sector report (OSM)
• State of the nation: sector report (Digital Innovation) overview
• Report: State of the nation: sector report (DI)
• Blog for CDBB - October 2019 overview
• Blog: Blog for CDBB October 2019
• How using Modern Methods of Construction and digital technologies affects stakeholder management in housing development projects: ENHR Conference
• Research Profile - Understanding the social context to transforming construction through digital innovation overview
• Creating positive economic communities overview
• Creating positive economic communities (draft report)
• Achieving local economic change: what works?
• Valuing Planning Obligations 2018-19 overview
• Gated communities and land administration challenges in Ghana: reappraising the reasons why people move into gated communities
• 2018 overview
• Construction Innovation Hub overview
• Beyond Smart Cities
• Levelling up and the Modernisation of the Construction Industry in the UK: Geographies of the Offsite Construction of Housing, at the ENHR Conference
• Smart city governance and the ethical dimension of smart city decision-making in Cambridge, UK
• Customer experience in the housebuilding industry: the post-occupancy evaluation of MMC-delivered homes in the social housing sector
• Ethically making Smart Cities
• The ethical underpinnings of Smart City governance
• Problem Framing in UK Smart Cities
• Towards a co-creative stakeholder framework for Smart City projects
• Podcast: How to unlock MMC at scale
• Built environment of Britain in 2040: Scenarios and strategies
• Locating OSM: Offsite construction is firmly on the agenda, but where exactly is ‘offsite’? overview
• Blog: Locating OSM: Offsite construction is firmly on the agenda, but where exactly is ‘offsite’?
• Four Futures, One Choice
• Towards a co-creative Stakeholder engagement framework for Smart City projects overview
• Presentation: Towards a co-creative Stakeholder engagement framework for Smart City projects
• Tackling the housing crisis through digital technologies and OSM overview
• Presentation: Whitehall & Industry Group
• Stakeholder Engagement for Smart Cities and DIPs: National Guidance Document overview
• Stakeholder Engagement for Smart Cities and DIPs: National Guidance Document
• Stakeholder Engagement Plan: West Cambridge Digital Twin Research Facility overview
• Report: Stakeholder Engagement Plan: West Cambridge Digital Twin Research Facility
• Engaging stakeholders in digital infrastructure projects overview
• Report: Stakeholder engagement review
• Flourishing Systems
• Digital technologies: presentation at 2019 Homes UK overview
• Presentation: Digital technologies, HOMES UK 2019
• Stakeholder engagement in Smart City initiatives overview
• Offsite construction: is it the answer to the housing crisis? overview
• Presentation: Offsite construction, NHF Asset Management Conference 2019
• Reinventing Renting overview
• Report: Reinventing Renting
• BIM in the UK house building industry overview
• Presentation: BIM in the UK house building industry
• Is co-living a housing solution for vulnerable older people? overview
• Households of the Future: will sharing our home become the new norm? overview
• Presentation: Households of the Future
• Co-living for vulnerable older people: Literature review overview
• Ageing well - meeting the needs of the next generation of older adults
• Report: Is co-living a housing solution for vulnerable older people? Literature review
• Co-living for vulnerable older people: Stakeholder views overview
• Co-living for older people - stakeholder views
• Is co-living a housing solution for vulnerable older people?
• Is co-living a housing solution for vulnerable older people? Summary Report
• Is co-living a good choice to support healthy, happy ageing at home? overview
• Is co-living a good choice to support healthy happy ageing at home?
• Digital Nomads overview
• Reinventing Renting
• Leasehold and Freehold Charges overview
• Parenting in a house share (ESRC IAA) overview
• Housing issues facing non-resident fathers overview
• Housing issues facing non-resident fathers: recommendations for policy and practice
• Digital Built Britain Housing Network overview
• Digital Built Britain Housing Network: Final Report overview
• Digital Built Britain Housing Network: Final Report
• Position paper 1: How can digital tools and technologies support independent living for older people, now and into the future? overview
• How can digital tools and technologies support independent living for older people, now and into the future?
• Position Paper 2: What is the role of off-site housing manufacture in a Digital Built Britain? overview
• What is the role of off-site housing manufacture in a Digital Built Britain?
• Position Paper 3: How will the UK govern, manage and maintain housing stock in a Digital Built Britain? overview
• How will the UK govern, manage and maintain housing stock in a Digital Built Britain?
• Position Paper 4: How could better use of data and digital technologies improve housing delivery through the UK planning system? overview
• Seminar 1: What are the key things we need to know in order to deliver affordable, sustainable housing in a Digital Built Britain? overview
• Seminar 1: What are the key things we need to know in order to deliver affordable, sustainable housing in a Digital Built Britain?
• Seminar 2: Will digital transformations solve our housing crisis? overview
• Nigel Walley, Chimni: Data passports
• Nissa Shahid, Future Cities Catapult: The future of planning
• Tom Lowry, Plymouth City Council: Digital planning in Plymouth
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FHFA Statistics Land Price Appreciation During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Introduction.

Land values are highly correlated with mortgage collateral risks and underlying location desirability; hence, these data are in high demand by researchers and policymakers. As a means with which to determine the replacement value of a structure, they are also important for estimating insurance premiums and executing rigorous climate scenario analysis.

In 2021, Davis, Larson, Oliner, and Shui estimated and made available an annual panel dataset for single-family residential land prices from 2012-2019 at the tract level. [1] We have updated these data through 2022, which will enable data users to gain insights into land price appreciation over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Interested readers may download these updated data at https://www.fhfa.gov/sites/default/files/2024-08/Land-Prices_2024_20_June.xlsx . In this blog post, we share some preliminary insights from these data.

Methodology

In updating the land price indices by an additional three years, we made no changes to the methodology as implemented in the published 2021 paper. We refer readers to the 2021 paper for more information on this methodology.

As in the previous paper, we compute two kinds of land value estimates, both of which are provided in the linked dataset. First, we compute as-is estimates, which are straightforward, per-acre values of land. We also report standardized estimates, which report land prices for hypothetical lots of a quarter-acre size, which is approximately the median lot size in our data. These estimates address the plattage effect, which refers to the observation that larger lots typically cost less on a per-acre basis, and thus value may be accreted by dividing larger lots into smaller ones.

Summary Statistics

Using a very large data set of appraisals, we generate annual panel data from 2012 through 2022 of the average price of land for single-family homes for 1,054 counties, 8,660 ZIP codes, and 12,057 census tracts. Additionally, we create a “pooled cross-section” dataset, which combines all data from 2012 through 2022 in the appraisal database and centers the estimates using 2015 prices. Pooling increases the number of geographic areas that satisfy the minimum required sample sizes.

Relative to the earlier data, improved geocoding as well as the additional years of data enables a modest increase in covered geographies. In what follows, we report increases relative to 2019 in parentheses. Our pooled cross-section includes data for 2,444 (+66) counties, 19,397 (+1,075) ZIP codes, and 54,515 (+1,371) census tracts. In the second dataset, we do not pool data by year and simply report annual estimates for a balanced panel. Given our minimum data requirements, we report land prices for 1,054 (+94) counties, 8,660 (+1,218) ZIP codes, and 12,057 (+1,542) census tracts each year from 2012 through 2022. The annual and pooled data sets cover 87 percent and 99 percent of the U.S. population residing in the 50 states and the District of Columbia, respectively, and 85 percent and 98 percent of the single-family housing units. The coverage difference between the annual and pooled datasets is small because well-populated areas are included in both.

Table 1 shows some basic statistics from our as-is estimates generated by applying an equal weight to each county. The top panel reports estimates from the pooled cross-section of counties, and the bottom panel reports estimates from the annual panel data of counties (pooled to cover 2012–2022). As in the previous data, both land prices and land shares display large variation. Land prices and land shares are uniformly higher in the panel data as many rural counties with cheap land and low land shares are dropped due to insufficient observations.

Table 1 : Land Statistics

As-Is Estimates of Land Value Reported Per Acre

We estimate that the land share for the United States in the aggregate increased from 37.0 percent in 2012 to 39.9 percent in 2022. This nearly 3 percentage point increase was driven by a rapid increase in land prices at the national level of 8.0 percent per year that outstripped the national rise in house prices. In Figure 1, we sort counties into 25 bins based on the number of single-family housing units over 2013–2017. Each bin represents the experience of about 40 counties. The blue triangles in each bin show the aggregate value of land in single-family, residential use in 2012 for all the counties included in each bin. These triangles represent the weight for each bin in the national aggregate.

Land Price Appreciation since the Onset of the Pandemic

Figure 1:  Changes in Land Prices and Land Shares by County-Based Quantiles of Housing Units, 2012-2022

(a) Changes in Land Prices

(b) Changes in Land Shares

Source: FHFA

Note: Counties in the annual panel data set are sorted into 25 bins based on the number of single-family housing units in 2013–2017, as measured in the American Community Survey for those years (5-year sample). In both panels, the blue triangles show the aggregate value of land in 2012 for all the counties in each bin. In the left (right) panel, the red bars show annualized growth in the price of land (change in the land share) for each bin and the black dashed line shows annualized growth in the price of land (change in the land share) in the aggregate United States between 2012 and 2022, 7.96 percent (2.9 percentage points) per year.

The red bars in the left panel of Figure 1 show the change in as-is land prices in each bin from 2012 to 2022, and the red bars in the right panel show the change in the land share over the same period. The right-most bin alone, which is dominated by counties in California, has greater aggregate land value than all 24 other bins combined and 4.6 times the land value of the bottom 18 bins combined. This explains why the increase in land prices at the national level over 2012–2022 – 7.96 percent per year on average, as shown by the black dashed line – outpaced the much slower rise in most of the county bins.

To provide clarity on the geographic heterogeneity of the national trend presented in Figure 1, especially as affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, Figure 2 presents maps of land share and as-is land price appreciation since 2019. While 66.2 percent of counties nationwide saw flat or declining land shares, 95.1 percent of counties saw appreciating land prices. Reinforcing certain stylized facts about pandemic-era housing markets, the three counties we observe to have had the most appreciation in land prices are rich in natural amenities. These are Teton County, Wyoming, St. Lucie County, Florida, and Canyon County, Idaho. Similarly, the three counties with the greatest land share appreciation also support a shift in homeowner preferences toward larger properties with greater access to outdoor recreation opportunities; these are San Bernadino County, California, Vilas County, Wisconsin, and Washington County, Utah.

Figure 2 : Mapped Changes of County-Level Land Shares and Land Prices

(a) County-Level Changes to Land Shares

(b) County-Level Changes to As-Is Land Prices

Panel (b) reinforces the interpretation that rapid changes in the value of housing, as observed in the Sunbelt states since the outbreak of COVID-19, were driven by changes in the underlying value of the land. Yet panel (a) suggests land share increases were modest. Major metropolitan areas subject to pandemic-era in-migration saw increases to land shares on the order of 5-13 percent. Large swathes of the country, including rural and suburban counties in the Midwest and the Eastern seaboard, saw flat to decreasing land shares. This is consistent with widely reported inflation in construction costs during the pandemic. Because of elevated replacement costs relative to land price appreciation, land share decreased, even as house values boomed.

Using a very large data set of appraisals, we generate annual panel data from 2012 through 2022 of the average price of land for single-family homes for 1,054 counties, 8,660 ZIP codes, and 12,057 census tracts. We also calculate pooled cross-sectional estimates of land prices for more than twice as many counties and ZIP codes and five times as many census tracts. We describe changes in the level and growth rate of land prices inclusive of pandemic-era home price appreciation. We expect that researchers will use the data we generate to build on our results, and current and future policymakers will monitor these data to better understand a variety of risks, including climate-related risks, in housing markets.

[1] These data are available for download at https://www.fhfa.gov/research/papers/wp1901 .

Tagged: FHFA Stats Blog; Land Prices; Replacement Cost; Data; Open Data; Source: FHFA

By: Matthew Suandi

Senior Economist

Division of Research and Statistics

File Attachments:

Land Prices – 2024 June

National Association of Local Housing Finance Agencies Board of Directors Visits Washington, D.C.

The Housing Finance Authority of Pinellas County’s Executive Director Kathryn Driver, a board member of the National Association of Local Housing Finance Agencies (NALHFA), joined other NALHFA board members in Washington, D.C. last week to discuss pivotal finance initiatives with federal agency officials. NALHFA Board members and staff met with Gary Grippo, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Public Finance with the U.S. Department of the Treasury to discuss ways to improve the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) – Federal Financing Bank (FFB) risk share program . By collaborating closely with the Treasury, NALHFA aims to bolster the program’s use by HFAs and extend federal assistance amongst members.

In addition, the Board and staff held discussions with officials from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regarding the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (GGRF) program . GGRF is designed to financially assist environmentally sustainable practices in housing development. NALHFA Board members and staff had the opportunity to discuss with EPA officials continued focus on strategic integration of GGRF with local housing projects and ways to maximize its benefits for both sustainability and community growth. NALHFA will continue to work with its GGRF partners to ensure members are well-equipped to lead in sustainability project development for years to come.

Rosenberg Research: Canada’s looming immigration reversal and what it means for interest rates, fixed income and the loonie

Canada’s immigration-driven population surge of recent years has provided an enormous boost to economic growth, labour force activity and employment gains – single-handedly keeping the country out of a technical recession.

However, the immigration uplift to the Canadian economy is soon to expire, with Ottawa aiming to significantly reduce the share of temporary residents in the population by 2027. The economic implications of lower net migration will be significant.

That will come alongside more downside to inflation, and less pressure on housing affordability. Most importantly, as yearly population growth slows to less than 1 per cent from 2025 to 2027 on average (from the current 3.2 per cent), our research shows that the neutral rate will decline to around 2 per cent from the current estimate of 2.75 per cent (and compared to 2.625 per cent for the U.S.). (The neutral rate, also known as the Rstar, is the interest rate consistent with noninflationary growth.)

Canada’s population grew by 3.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2024 compared to a year ago (an additional 1.3 million people), with an increase in temporary residents (temporary workers, students and asylum seekers) accounting for two-thirds of this growth (800,000 newcomers). Over the past three years alone, the country has seen a net increase of close to 1.5 million temporary residents – from 1.3 million in mid-2021 to 2.8 million as of the 2024 second quarter. While this has helped Canada escape a recession by boosting spending (newcomers were responsible for around 30 per cent of consumption growth last year) and filling labour shortages, it has also resulted in higher rent and home prices.

Earlier this year, Ottawa announced a plan for a significant cut in temporary residents – from 6.8 per cent of the population (as of the 2024 second quarter) to 5.0 per cent by 2027. Such a reduction corresponds to a roughly 25-per-cent decline (700,000) in non-permanent residents and requires fast and drastic actions – these measures are also subject to change with a federal election coming by the end of 2025. While some temporary residents will shift out of that category by receiving permanent residency over the following years, that will not be enough to get the share of non-permanent residents to 5 per cent. The only way to achieve the target Ottawa set is for a portion of temporary residents to leave the country. The latest population projections by Statistics Canada seem to take into account the 5-per-cent target and estimate that there will be a net decline of 640,000 temporary residents by 2027, with each year resulting in a net outflow of more than 200,000.

Anne Michèle Meggs: Despite moving to limit temporary immigrants, Canada’s policy lacks vision

Such a decrease in newcomers would mean that population growth will average a little less than 1 per cent annually between 2025 and 2027 – compared to the current norm of 3 per cent.

The economic implications are mixed; while reducing immigration growth is necessary to give the economy a break from its negative impact on housing affordability and overburdening health systems, it will also expose some pre-existing underlying weaknesses in the Canadian economy.

A slowdown in population growth will lead to a 30-basis-point decline in growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) due to an immediate reduction in overall spending. As of the 2024 first quarter, GDP is up 0.5 per cent from last year (in volume terms), well below the 3-per-cent annual increase in population. So, on a population-adjusted basis, the economy is actually contracting – with real GDP per capita down 2.6 per cent year-over-year, the fifth yearly decline in a row. With the full effect of rate hikes yet to kick in (they operate with 12- to 18- month lags), the future is not looking great for economic growth without the demand-side support from rising immigration. The Bank of Canada’s estimate of annual real GDP growth of more than 2 per cent until 2026 remains overly optimistic.

Employment growth will take a big hit, but the outlook on the unemployment rate and wages are mixed. As the growth in available labour supply declines (and likely at a faster pace than job vacancies), less slack in the jobs market will exert some upward pressure on wage growth, but the downside risk remains intact, with wages still playing catch-up to the recent decline in inflation.

Slower immigration growth will alleviate some pressure on the housing market; however, the unaffordability crisis will not be solved until housing starts fully catch up to population growth. The pace of immigration has dramatically surpassed the absorptive capacity of the housing market – since 2022, there have been around 650,000 housing starts, while the population is up approximately 2.5 million.

Meanwhile, the disinflation momentum is set to continue as slower demand growth for goods and services will result in lower prices, likely dragging inflation below the lower band of the BoC ’s target range of 1 to 3 per cent. Inflation is already running at 2.7 per cent year-over-year, within the control range set by the bank – and with a negative output gap set to persist till 2026 (currently at 1.6 per cent), shelter prices coming down, and consumer spending losing steam, inflation in Canada is heading toward flat.

The main driver behind the neutral rate in Canada has been the increase in the labour force, which was made possible by immigration. With immigration growth taking a step back, the working-age population and labour force will expand slower than before

For investors, the key take-away here is that the Canadian neutral rate will likely drop to around 2 per cent (from the current estimated level of 2.75 per cent) as a result of slower population growth – more than half a percentage point below the 2.625 per cent estimated in the U.S. Therefore, the BoC will need to cut much deeper (and likely faster) than the Federal Reserve in the U.S., just to get monetary policy back to a neutral stance. This not only creates room for more rate cuts and builds a bullish case for Canadian fixed income but it also signals weakness for the Canadian dollar.

Atakan Bakiskan is an economist with Rosenberg Research

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Nixon Peabody adds Community Development Finance attorney focused on housing tax credit transactions

Aug 6, 2024

Katelyn Donahue

Media relations specialist.

Washington, DC.   Nixon Peabody LLP has expanded its Community Development Finance practice with the addition of counsel Steven Feenstra

Based in the firm’s Washington, DC office , Steve represents a large low-income housing tax credit syndicator and assists with the legal review of affordable housing real estate investments throughout the United States.

“Steve is a skilled attorney with extensive experience in low-income housing tax credits,” said Nixon Peabody partner Matthew Mullen , leader of the firm’s Community Development Finance practice. “His ability to provide practical solutions to complex legal issues will be an immediate benefit to our clients.”

Steve’s practice focuses on negotiating business arrangements between a large low-income housing tax credit syndicator, investors, and developers in order to build affordable housing projects. He also reviews proposed projects to confirm compliance with tax code requirements and addresses essential development matters on behalf of the syndicator and its investors, including real property issues and debt financing.

In addition to Steve, Nixon Peabody also recently welcomed Community Development Finance partners Fred Miller and Andrew Rubin , who are also based in the Washington, DC, office.

“We’re thrilled to welcome Steve to the team, and we’re excited to continue expanding our strong group of Community Development Finance attorneys,” said Colette Dafoe , managing partner of the firm’s Washington, DC office. “This group helps create positive impacts not only locally but also in communities across the country.”

Steve earned his JD, cum laude , from University of Michigan School of Law and his BA from Dordt University.

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RBA hold decision unlikely to boost housing demand

Research Director Tim Lawless shares commentary on today's RBA cash rate decision.

The easing in the trimmed mean rate of inflation, soft economic growth and a gradual loosening in labour markets has been enough to stave off another rate hike, with the RBA’s board deciding to keep the cash rate steady at 4.35%, where it has held since November last year.

With the quarterly rate of core inflation easing back to 0.8% in the June quarter, in line with the RBA’s May forecast and down from 1.0% in the March quarter, much of the pressure has come off the RBA to lift rates.  A slowdown in job growth and a subtle lift in the unemployment rate were also at play in keeping rates on hold.

Although a stable interest rate decision is seen as a positive for borrowers and housing more broadly, we aren’t expecting today’s outcome will have a material influence on housing trends.

While stable rates and lower inflation should help to lift consumer sentiment, which has historically shown a close relationship with property sales, the August hold decision may not be enough to see that rise in consumer sentiment flow through to housing market activity. Recent growth in property prices has had more to do with low supply, tight rental conditions and demographic factors than sentiment through the housing upswing to date.

Many of these factors are now losing their potency, with the trend rate of home sales easing as affordability becomes more challenging, migration slows and momentum leaves the upswing in rents.   Even if sentiment lifts, an improvement in affordability barriers or strengthening in household balance sheets isn’t likely until interest rates start to fall.

Similar to the volume of home sales, housing values have trended higher in the face of high interest rates and cost of living pressures.  Although the growth trends are diverse from city to city, the pace of gains is clearly slowing at the macro level.  On a rolling quarterly basis, CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index (HVI) has slowed from 3.3% over the June quarter last year to 1.7% over the three months ending July 24.

While the RBA Board is leaving their options open, if the inflation trajectory continues to ease, the next movement in interest rates should be downwards.  Whether this will be enough to revitalise the housing growth cycle is open for debate. There is a possibility that affordability pressures and, eventually, a housing supply response, will keep a lid on price growth even as rates come down.

The timing of a rate cut remains uncertain and dependent on the flow of data, especially inflation and labour force outcomes.  The earliest forecasts have a rate cut pencilled in for November, while market pricing has also been brought forward to November 24.

Meet  Tim Lawless

Executive, Research Director, Asia-Pacific

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Tim is executive research director of CoreLogic’s Asia–Pacific research division, managing a team of economic and data specialists across Australia and New Zealand. He brings more than 20 years’ experience to the role, providing deep insights and analysis on national housing trends.

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