effects of climate change in pakistan essay

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Pakistan Must Adapt to Climate Change. But Who Will Help Us?

T he record-breaking mega-flood in August 2022 that impacted 33 million people in Pakistan brought home to the world the urgency and scale of the climate crisis afflicting developing countries. At the 27th United Nations Climate Change conference (COP 27), it triggered widespread worry among other countries about the state of preparedness many will have to gear up to—even if, like Pakistan, they remain negligible emitters of the greenhouse gases. In 2022, Pakistan’s pavilion at Sharm-al-Shaikh positioned not just the global connectedness of the crisis by pointing out that “what goes on in Pakistan will not stay in Pakistan,” it also became the hub of the climate finance deficits that are growing exponentially in inverse proportion to global emissions. This has led, in part, to the creation of the Loss and Damage (L&D) fund at the end of the conference.

Yet as G20’s energy ministers remained unable to agree on a roadmap to reduce emissions by July 2023 (even as COP28 approaches) the realization set in that many of us will remain in the frontline of the burn. Pakistan has been home for three successive years where on at least one day temperatures reached 53°C (127.4°F). The hope that we were working with needed a home-grown plan. As heatwaves coupled with slow global action transformed the earth into a red planet in the summer of 2023, Pakistan launched a National Adaptation Plan in July to chart a strategic whole-of government approach with a framework toolkit that allows it to protect its population.

For instance, the province of Sindh, which to this day stands transformed by the 2022 deluge, and recently saw evacuations in the coastal areas from cyclonic activity in a warming Arabian Sea, began its rehabilitation process by transferring new land titles to the women of afflicted households. In all such crises, the most vulnerable always remain the poorest, the women and children, impacted disproportionately by multiple crises of food insecurity, displacement, and disease.

That said, while Sindh is struggling to cope with a cascade of disasters, it will need not just the National Adaptation Plan, but the resources to transform municipal, rural, and agri-water governance for the dangerous decade ahead—all of which needs time, capacity, and liquidity. Similarly, the province of Balochistan has already declared a flood emergency, while the northern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is impacted too by a gathering storm.

Read More: ‘I Lost My Son in This Water a Few Days Ago.’ Photos of Pakistan’s Catastrophic Flooding

For countries drowning in extreme weather, exogenous shocks, and high public debt, where will this money come from? Especially in the amount that the World Bank in its 2022 Country Climate and Development Report calculated for Pakistan: a staggering $348 billion by 2030. This is just the number to stay resilient—to keep our heads above water and build sustainability into a climate-adaptive future. All this while a summer of fresh flooding and melting glaciers redefines our lives, our social and economic experiences, into a lifelong struggle to rebuild with resilience while we fight the climate devastations wreaking havoc again.

Who is coming to the rescue of such countries? While U.N. has been in the frontline of immediate relief, even its flash appeals globally remain under-funded. Structural reforms involve pain. We are willing to undergo more pain, especially for enabling resilience, but some amount of change has to come from the Bretton Woods system—the monetary management structure that controls the U.S., Canada, Australia, Western Europe, and Japan—meant to lead the world out of egregious inequality and now climate distress. The financing gap to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in developing countries has enlarged from $2.5 trillion in 2019 to $4.2 trillion in 2023. Add to it the cost of realizing climate goals, and the amount reaches a whopping $5.2 trillion annually .

Our National Adaption Plan (NAP) is designed to build climate-adaptation goals into every aspect of development planning. The international financial system must do the same. As we approach COP 28, the Global Goal on Adaptation remains under-capitalized, while the L&D fund is yet to start functioning. The U.N. Secretary General António Guterres made detailed recommendations in a press conference on July 27 that countries must operationalize and scale up the funding of renewables. Donor countries have been bilaterally supportive but they too need to fulfill their commitment to provide 0.7% of their Gross National Income as development assistance. Multilateral Development Banks should be recapitalized and be enabled to provide portfolio and budgetary support to developing countries, rather than project finance only. They should vastly expand grant and concessional lending to developing countries, enhance the vote and the voice of the developing countries in both International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, and link the distribution of new IMF SDRs to development and climate goals.

The transition to a sustainable global economy will require an investment of around $1.5 trillion each year in the developing countries. Business as usual will certainly not work. A large part of this funding pool will have to come from the private sector, which will need new structural incentives to bring their leverage and capital to the business of bending development history. Vulnerable countries cannot attract investment in times of epochal climate distress, but they do need more than band-aid financing. We now need transformational milestones to building global consensus for a financing architecture that can face the 21st century’s rapidly changing conditions that challenge resilience while fueling crippling inequalities.

Critical assistance for the most climate vulnerable countries must not further burden the poor. Actions will be as important as pledges and plans at this point. A real message of change from global leaders would contribute substantially to the success of the forthcoming SDG Summit in September and COP28 in December, and restore trust in global cooperation and international solidarity. Our people are looking to us with renewed hope for action. We must not fail them.

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Turning Concern into Action: Understanding Climate Change Attitudes in Pakistan

Juan d. barón.

Pakistan is grappling with the profound impacts of climate change, such as shifting weather patterns and catastrophic floods (Baron et all, 2022) . Unfortunately, these impacts are projected to escalate, with forecasts suggesting that climate-related events, environmental degradation, and air pollution may cause Pakistan's GDP to shrink by 18-20% by 2050 . This alarming statistic underscores the need to address climate change and mitigate its effects on people and their livelihoods. Even though developing countries like Pakistan may not be the primary contributors to climate change, acknowledging and confronting its fallout is indispensable, especially for combatting pressing local issues like air pollution and smog.

The necessity to adapt and the implications of actions for local issues make it essential to understand people's prioritization of addressing climate change, their trusted sources of information, and the motivating factors behind their actions. To answer these questions, we conducted a phone survey of a random sample of 2,000 parents in Pakistan who have access to a cell phone and have school-aged children using random digit dialing. The key findings have been released in a recent policy note .

The results of the survey show that most people, regardless of gender or education level, are highly concerned about the impact of climate change on children, with over 80 percent expressing concern. The survey shows that although people are worried about climate change and its effects, it is not always their top priority. When asked to choose the top three issues facing Pakistan, less than a quarter of participants chose climate change. This suggests that while people are worried about climate change, it may not be their priority issue.

In the survey, when a random subset of people were presented with economic issues first, there was a 4-percentage point (statistically significant) rise in the likelihood of individuals considering climate change among top three issues of Pakistan, compared to when social issues were presented first. This prioritization of climate change when seen as an economic issue is more pronounced among individuals with higher educational attainment (see Figure 1).

How knowledgeable are people about climate information and whom do they trust?

The survey looked at people's knowledge of and trust in different sources of information about climate change. Those with higher levels of education are more informed about climate change.  For example, only 47 percent of illiterate people believe that the earth is getting warmer due to human activity, compared to 60 percent of those with higher education or above. Findings also show significant distrust overall in traditional sources of information, with the least educated being the most likely to distrust these sources. Among these sources, news media leads as the most important source of information while less than 1/5 trust scientists. This highlights the lack of trust in traditional climate change leadership, including the possibility of misinformation from the media. This poses a significant challenge to educating people about climate change.

How are people addressing climate change in Pakistan?

Families want their children to learn about climate change, but they are relying on the schools to fulfill this role. Almost all households in the survey said they support education about climate in schools.  However, less than half talk about it at home. This shows that schools could play a role in promoting conversations and educating families about climate change.

The survey reveals that, despite frequently adopting money-saving measures such as turning off lights (76%) to combat climate change, people exhibit less enthusiasm for endorsing more impactful actions like using public transport (36%) or cutting down on meat consumption. Reducing the disconnect between concern and action requires understanding people's beliefs e.g. education and awareness campaigns highlighting practical benefits, like savings or health improvements.

Three crucial insights emerge from the survey findings for policymakers. Firstly, economic aspects drive people's concern about climate change. Secondly, skepticism exists, especially among less educated individuals relying on traditional information sources. Lastly, even concerned individuals might not act due to inconvenience or lifestyle changes. Policymakers should focus on removing barriers and offering economic incentives to encourage active participation in climate action.

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• Published: 13 April 2024

Climate warming contributes to the record-shattering 2022 Pakistan rainfall

• Yujia You 1 , 2 ,
• Mingfang Ting   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-4302-4614 1 &
• Michela Biasutti   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-6681-1533 1  

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science volume  7 , Article number:  89 ( 2024 ) Cite this article

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• Atmospheric dynamics
• Attribution
• Projection and prediction

A sequence of torrential rainstorms pounded Pakistan in the summer of 2022, shattering records by massive margins (7 sigma). The severe socioeconomic damages underscore the urgency of identifying its dynamic drivers and relationship with human-induced climate change. Here, we find that the downpours were primarily initiated by the synoptic low-pressure systems, whose intensity and longevity far exceeded their counterparts in history as fueled by a historically-high cross-equatorial moisture transport over the Arabian Sea. The moisture transport has been trending upward since the 1960s and, in 2022, along with the anomalous easterly moisture influx caused by the combination of La Niña and negative Indian Ocean Dipole events, created a corridor of heavy rainfall extending from central India toward southern Pakistan. While it is not yet established whether the observed trend of the cross-equatorial moisture transport has exceeded natural variability, model-based analysis confirms that it is consistent with the fingerprint of anthropogenic climate warming and will raise the likelihood of such rare events substantially in the coming decades.

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Introduction.

Pakistan is located at the western edge of the pluvial region of the South Asian summer monsoon. Much of Pakistan’s territory receives little rain, especially the southern coasts and the lowland plains of the Indus River 1 . The exception is the northernmost mountains, where moisture in the monsoon flow is lifted over the steep terrain of the Himalayas and condenses to fall as rain or snow 2 (Fig. 1a ). Torrential rainfall over Pakistan often produces catastrophic socioeconomic consequences, whether over the northern mountains, where landslides are often triggered, or over the southern low-lying deserts, where water has nowhere to drain and return to river channels. From mid-June until the end of August 2022, a sequence of record-breaking deluges pummeled Pakistan (Fig. 1b ), compounding the effect of unprecedented glacial melt 3 . The accumulated rainfall amount exceeded the most notorious flood in 2010 and all instrumental records over the last 50-years 3 . Close to 2000 people perished, over 2.1 million residents were left homeless, more than 75,000 km 2 of Pakistan were inundated, and at least $30 billion (U.S. dollars) in economic damage were suffered 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 . The extraordinary magnitude and impact of the 2022 flood make it imperative to identify the physical processes and forcing factors that initiated it.

a Climatology of summer (June-September) rainfall (mm/day; shading) and b 2022 summer rainfall anomaly (mm/day) based on CPC UNI rainfall dataset. Time series and boxplot of the summer rainfall averaged over c , d Pakistan, e , f northern Pakistan (to the north of 30°N), and g , h southern Pakistan (to the south of 30°N) during 1979–2022. The box extends from the lower to upper quartile, with a line at the median. The whiskers extend from the 5th to the 95th percentile. The black diamonds denote outliers during the period 1979–2021, and the colorful diamonds represent 2022 values. Blue, gray, green, and red colors represent GPCC, CHIRPS, CMAP, and CPC UNI rainfall datasets, respectively. Dashed lines in ( c , e , g ) denote 5 standard deviations (σ) for the corresponding datasets.

The causes of the historical floods over Pakistan have been investigated in the literature 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 . On the synoptic scale, it is typically the South Asian monsoon low-pressure systems (LPSs) that often trigger deep convection and bring copious rainfall ahead and south of the storm center 8 , 9 , 10 . A large fraction of LPSs originate near the Bay of Bengal and penetrate deeper inland, where they play a crucial role in determining the amount and distribution of the summer rainfall over South Asia 11 , 12 . It has also been suggested that the upper-level divergence resulting from the extratropical troughs lying aloft northern Pakistan contributed to the extreme rainfall in 1988, 2010, and 2013 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 . On the planetary scale, both Pakistan rainfall and its synoptic triggers are influenced by the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation, which is further regulated by the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans [e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)] 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 .

Nonetheless, the unprecedented intensity of the 2022 event, which shattered the historical record by hundreds of millimeters, puts it beyond what many previous studies considered plausible under the current climate conditions. Tropical SST anomalies (i.e., the La Niña and Indian Ocean Dipole events) and the anomalous upstream blocking over northeastern Europe have been postulated as contributors of the extreme rainfall over Pakistan 22 , 23 . However, these climate anomalies were not unprecedented. On the other hand, studies reported that climate warming has enhanced Pakistan rainfall intensity by more than 50% 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 , though the exact mechanisms remain unexplored and the impact of climate warming manifest on longer timescales as gradual changes. The overarching goal of this study is therefore to examine the multiscale triggers of this unprecedented extreme event and to address the question of whether this rare flood was a mere coincidence event resulting from the synergetic interaction of natural fluctuations, or was it instead unlikely to occur without human influence on the climate system.

Unprecedented summer rainfall over Pakistan and meteorological triggers

Based on the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) unified gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation, the 2022 summer (June-September) country-wide average precipitation was 3.95 mm/day, exceeding the previous 42-year (1980–2021) average of 1.03 mm/day by 283% and by 7 times its interannual standard deviation (Fig. 1c ). The 2022 flood is not only much worse in magnitude but also distinct in its spatial characteristics compared to the notorious flood in 2010, when the rainfall primarily occurred in the wetter northern highlands (Fig. 1e ; refs. 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 ). During 2022, the largest rainfall increase was located over the drier southern flat plains (Fig. 1b ), where the climatological summer mean rainfall is less than 0.6 mm/day (Fig. 1 a, g ). The anomalous rainfall was not geographically isolated to Pakistan. Instead, it stretched over a corridor extending northwestward from central India, with the heaviest precipitation concentrated over southern Pakistan (Fig. 1b ). While the yearly time series of Pakistan rainfall are highly correlated among the datasets used in the current study, there are some discrepancies in the magnitude of the 2022 rainfall across the different datasets (“Methods” section). However, the 2022 rainfall clearly shows up as the only exceptionally rare event, shattering records by large margins in all datasets, over both southern Pakistan and Pakistan as a whole (Fig. 1d, f, h ). This result holds even dating back to 1890 (Supplementary Fig. 1 ).

From mid-June until the end of August 2022, six unusually intense rainstorms pounded Pakistan (Fig. 2a , blue bars). The 2022 flood was not the result of any singular major rain event, but rather the cumulative effect of multiple episodic heavy deluges. The temporal evolutions of daily rainfall during the six rain pulses are mapped in Supplementary Fig. 2 . The most prominent feature, noticeable in all pulses, is the northwestward progression of rainfall hotspots across central India toward Pakistan, which is in agreement with the seasonal rainfall anomalies shown in Fig. 1b . The clear signature of migrating rainfall centers in Supplementary Fig. 2 raises the possibility that the synoptic LPSs, which mostly form near the Bay of Bengal and travel northwestward (Fig. 2b ; ref. 26 ), may have been the culprit of the heavy rainfall events in 2022.

a Daily rainfall averaged over Pakistan from June 1st to September 30th, 2022. The purple horizontal lines indicate the lifespan of each individual LPS by objective tracking. The green and red vertical stripes represent the presence of LPS inside Pakistan box (green box in b , c ) based on the objective tracking algorithm and manual tracking method, respectively. The black line denotes the daily cross-equatorial moisture transport, defined as the area-average integrated vapor transport (IVT) over the blue boxed region in e (kg m −1 s −1 ). b Climatological LPS genesis density (number of LPS per summer; orange contour) and cyclolysis density (number of LPS per summer; blue contour), overlapped with the trajectories of 2022 LPS (green start points, pink ending dots, gray tracks). c Anomalies of 2022 LPS track density (number of LPS days; shading) and LPS-related rainfall (mm/day; dots), overlapped with the climatological LPS track density (number of LPS days per summer; contour). d LPS genesis number, mean intensity, and days spent in Pakistan box of 2022 LPS (colorful diamonds) as compared to historical LPS (1980–2021; boxplot made in the same manner as Fig. 1d ). e Composites of anomalous daily moisture fluxes (kg m −1  s −1 ; vector) and its convergence (mm/day; shading) when the 2022 LPS were present in the Pakistan box. f 2022 summer mean moisture flux (kg m −1  s −1 ; vector) and its convergence (mm/day; shading) anomalies. g Scatter plot of the normalized summer mean cross-equatorial moisture transport ( x axis) and the normalized number of days when LPS were present in the Pakistan region ( y axis). Correlations are shown with (0.51) and without (0.47) 2022 values. The size and color of markers indicate the normalized average summer rainfall anomalies over Pakistan.

To substantiate this conjecture, we compile the trajectories of South Asian LPSs in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) using an objective feature tracking algorithm (Methods). The green vertical strips in Fig. 2a denote the presence of LPS near Pakistan [i.e., within the Pakistan (PK) box in Fig. 2b ]. The trajectories obtained by the tracking algorithm are validated against the manual LPS identification from weather charts (red stripes in Fig. 2a and Supplementary Fig. 3 ). With the exception of the first rainfall episode in mid-June, all the subsequent five rainfall pulses were triggered by LPSs. The climatological mean distribution of LPS cyclogenesis and cyclolysis locations during the previous 42-year period (1980–2021) are displayed in Fig. 2b , overlapped with the corresponding locations of the 2022 LPSs. Historically, most of the LPSs formed over the Bay of Bengal, propagated northwestward, dissipated over central India, and were incapable of producing much rainfall over Pakistan. In contrast, the majority of the 2022 LPSs traveled beyond the endpoints of the historical LPSs (Fig. 2b , pink dots) and had stronger-than-average cyclone intensity (Fig. 2d , red boxplot). As a consequence, even though the LPS genesis was below-average in 2022 (Fig. 2d , blue boxplot), the LPS activity over Pakistan was record-high (Fig. 2d , green boxplot; Fig. 2c ), favoring anomalous heavy rainfall from central India to southern Pakistan (Fig. 2c , blue dots).

Large-scale circulation anomalies and contribution of anthropogenic forcings

The genesis, propagation, and dissipation of synoptic storms are, to a large extent, regulated by the ambient large-scale environment, and specifically by the availability of moisture fueling deep convection and the attendant circulation. How much, then, was the unusually strong 2022 LPS activity due to large-scale circulation anomalies? To explore this question, we determine the large-scale circulation pattern that favored the anomalously strong 2022 LPS activity by compositing those days when the 2022 LPSs were present in the Pakistan box (Fig. 2e ). The LPS and intense rainfall were associated with a conveyor belt of water vapor originating from the South Indian Ocean and traveling off the coast of Somalia toward Northwestern India and Pakistan (blue boxed region, Fig. 2e ). The potential importance of the landward moisture transport in promoting LPS activity in Pakistan is also evidenced by daily time series of moisture transport, which appears to precondition the presence of LPS over Pakistan and the occurrence of extreme rainfall (Fig. 2a , black solid line) in early July and mid-August. These results suggest that the cross-equatorial transport and the resultant moisture buildup over the subcontinent might supply the fuel needed for LPS-related convection and the energy that sustains the LPS against dissipating forces.

The results in Fig. 2 a, e , while strongly suggestive of the role of cross-equatorial moisture transport in sustaining the LPSs from dissipation before they reach Pakistan, may not provide a solid evidence of causality, since the cross-equatorial flow could have been caused by the presence of stronger LPS circulation, which subsequently led to stronger moisture transport over the tropical Indian Ocean (Fig. 2e ). To further elucidate the relationship, we compare the moisture transport for the LPS days to the seasonal mean (c.f., Fig. 2 e, f ). On the seasonal timescale, the transient cyclonic circulation associated with LPS was absent, whereas the above-normal cross-equatorial moisture transport still existed, albeit with a weaker strength (Fig. 2f ). Additionally, in accordance with the extraordinary LPS activity, the summer mean cross-equatorial moisture transport was the second strongest in 2022 (Fig. 2g ) and its strength is positively correlated with the number of days when the LPS influenced the Pakistan region ( r  = 0.51 and 0.47 with and without 2022, respectively). Note that while the cross-equatorial moisture transport was strong in 2010 and 2022, the moisture flow stagnated over the Arabian Sea and did not ever reach the Indian subcontinent (not shown). The relationship on seasonal-to-interannual timescales indicates a clear causal link: increased cross-equatorial moisture transport over the Arabian Sea can enhance LPS activity over Pakistan. While anomalous moisture import was also noticeable over the Bay of Bengal (Fig. 2f ), it did not contribute significantly to the Pakistan LPS activity ( r  = −0.26 without 2022; Supplementary Fig. 4 ), probably because the background total column water vapor over the Bay of Bengal is already high.

The ultimate cause of the 2022 circulation anomalies can be either natural modes of variability or shifts in the background climate state due to anthropogenic forcings. The yearly time series of the net moisture flux into the Pakistan domain is shown in Fig. 3a , together with its zonal and meridional components (see Methods). Climatologically, the large net outflow of moisture in the zonal direction is partially compensated by the net moisture inflow in the meridional direction. Both components have experienced significant long-term changes. The zonal outflow is trending upward at a rate of 3.56% (−0.44 × 10 7  kg s −1 ) per decade, and the meridional inflow is increasing at a rate of 17.46% (1.29 × 10 7  kg s −1 ) per decade (Fig. 3a ). In 2022, the meridional moisture influx was at a historical high and was favored by the ongoing trend, whereas the zonal outflow was weaker than what the trend would lead us to expect. The combination of a strong inflow and a weak outflow yielded a large anomalous convergence in 2022. The clear monotonic trend in observation is in strong agreement with the projected change made by climate models 28 , 29 , thus highlighting the importance of climate warming in setting the favorable environment for Pakistan flood, though there are certainly contributions from natural modes of variability. The robustness of the upward trend is verified by multiple reanalysis products (Supplementary Fig. 5 ).

a Net moisture inflow into the Pakistan domain (10 8  kg s −1 ; blue line). Red and yellow lines are for meridional and zonal component, respectively. Significant linear trend fitted to the data as dashed lines. b Scatter plot of the normalized summer mean cold tongue index (CTI; 6°S-6°N, 180°−90°W; x axis) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index [SST anomaly difference between the western (10°S-10°N, 50°−70°E) and eastern Indian Ocean (10°S-0°, 90°−108°E); y axis] over the period 1980–2022. Extreme ENSO and IOD events defined as exceedances of ± 0.5σ (dashed gray lines) due to the limited sample size. Correlations outside and inside the parentheses are calculated with and without 2022 values, respectively. Purple numbers indicate sample size in each subcategory. c Linear trend of moisture fluxes (kg m −1  s −1 per decade; vector) and its convergence (mm/day per decade; shading) in 1980–2022. d Difference of moisture flux anomalies (kg m −1  s −1 ; vector) and its convergence (mm/day; shading) between summers with negative phases of ENSO and IOD and summers with positive phases. The darker vectors in c , d represent statistical significance at 95% confidence level based on two-sided Student’s t test. Moisture fluxes and sea surface temperature are taken from MERRA-2 and ERSST v5, respectively.

During the summer of 2022, cold SST anomalies were observed over the eastern tropical Pacific and western Indian Ocean with warm SST anomalies in the western tropical Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean (Supplementary Fig. 6 ). These anomalies are consistent with La Niña conditions, which persisted for a third year, co-occurring with a strong negative IOD (Fig. 3b ). La Niña events are associated with stronger-than-normal monsoon circulation and excessive rainfall over the Indian subcontinent 17 . However, the negative IOD events frequently lead to a weakening and southward shift in the monsoon ascending branch, resulting in an unfavorable condition for Pakistan flood 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 . In our study period, the Pakistan country-wide average rainfall is negatively correlated with ENSO ( r  = −0.37) but has no statistically significant relationship with IOD ( r  = 0.05 without 2022). Nonetheless, the occurrences of ENSO and IOD events are, to some degree, not independent of each other and their influences on the South Asian monsoon rainfall are coumpounded 19 . To better demonstrate the combined effects of La Niña and negative IOD in our study period, the moisture transport anomalies during summers with negative phases of ENSO and IOD are subtracted from anomalies during summers with positive phases (Fig. 3d ). There are similarities between the ENSO-IOD composite and the 2022 anomalies over the Bay of Bengal and the eastern Indian Ocean. In the ENSO-IOD composite, the anomalous easterly moisture flux over central India tend to reduce the moisture outflow over Pakistan (Fig. 3d ), hinting that the 2022 Pakistan rainfall could partly arise from intrinsic, natural variability. However, it completely lacks the cross-equatorial moisture transport over the Arabian Sea, which was a strong feature in summer 2022. The absence of the cross-equatorial moisture transport in the ENSO and IOD composite, together with the prominent long-term trend of this moisture transport (Fig. 3c ), highlight the contribution of externally-forced climate background shifts.

Increasing likelihood under global warming

To estimate the possible anthropogenic contribution to the cross-equatorial moisture transport, we analyze an ensemble of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6; Methods) and estimate the forced change during the historical period as the multi-model ensemble average. Compared to the notable enhancement in the observed Pakistan summer rainfall (>27% per decade in some regions; Fig. 4a ), the externally forced change indicates a moderate but spatially homogeneous increase (4–5% per decade; Fig. 4b ). The increase is anchored by an enhanced cross-equatorial moisture transport (Fig. 4c ), consistent with observations (Fig. 3c ). Additionally, the forced response is, to a large extent, the consequence of increasing greenhouse gases (GHG), as single-forcing simulation with a subset of the CMIP6 models confirms that GHG alone is sufficient to produce a wetting trend and an increased cross-equatorial moisture transport (Supplementary Fig. 7 ).

a , b Linear trend of summer rainfall (% per decade; shading) in ( a ) CPC UNI during 1980–2022 and ( b ) historical experiment of CMIP6 models during 1980–2014. c Linear trend of summer mean moisture fluxes and its magnitude (kg m −1  s −1 per decade; shading) in CMIP6 historical all-forcing experiment. d Occurrence of Pakistan extreme rainfall (>98th percentile of summer mean Pakistan rainfall in the reference period 1951–1980) in models with ensemble size no less than 5 (bolded models in Supplementary Table 2 ). The box extends from the lower to upper quartile, with a line at the median. The whiskers extend from the 5th to the 95th percentile. The diamonds denote outliers. Green boxplot for historical experiment during 1985–2014. Orange and pink boxplots for SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 experiments during 2020–2049. Dashed line represents 2% occurrence. Hatching in ( a ) denotes regions where the observed trends are not significant at 95% confidence level and ( b ) regions where the model ensemble mean trend lacks sufficient model agreements (defined as smaller than 75% models having the same trend sign).

To quantify the impacts of anthropogenic forcings on the occurrence probability of heavy rainfall over Pakistan across models, we calculate the probability of summer seasonal mean Pakistan heavy rainfall (i.e., exceedances of the 98th percentile of summer rainfall over the base period 1951~1980) in each ensemble member for two subsequent 30-year periods, i.e., 1985–2014 and 2020–2049 (Fig. 4d ). The 98th percentile is chosen because CMIP6 models are unable to simulate events that have comparable intensity as the 2022 event (i.e., 4–7σ) and such an extreme event rarely occurs in the real world (one event in observational record since the 1980s). In simulations forced with the historical anthropogenic forcings, there is virtually no change in the occurrence of extreme rainfall during the recent past (0–9.3%). Nonetheless, even under a moderate emission scenario (SSP2–4.5), large majority of the models indicate a significant increase in the occurrence of extreme events in the coming decades. Under a higher emission scenario (SSP5–8.5), some of the models project a more extreme enhancement, although the increment is not statistically distinguishable from that in the SSP2–4.5. The strong inter-model consensus on the wetting trend over Pakistan is noteworthy since the agreement is not due to thermodynamic moistening, but due to the dynamical enhancement of the monsoonal cross-equatorial moisture transport (Supplementary Fig. 8 ) and more frequent LPS activity (Supplementary Fig. 9c ). Despite the inter-model agreement on the sign of change, the magnitude of the wetting is still subject to large uncertainty (e.g., 1.7–19% under SSP2–4.5). Though a complete analysis of the source of this uncertainty is beyond the scope of the present study, we impute it to the models’ varying ability to simulate the LPSs, which cannot be well resolved with coarse resolution models (Supplementary Fig. 9d ; ref. 30 ).

How will the modes of internal variability alter rainfall extremes over Pakistan in the coming decades, as the globe continues to warm? Models indicate that the frequency and intensity of La Niña and negative IOD events remain approximately unchanged from the 1951–1980 reference period to the recent past and near future decades (Supplementary Figs. 10a, b ); nonetheless, the Pakistan rainfall anomalies during the extreme phases of these two modes show an unequivocal tendency toward greater magnitude as time progresses (Supplementary Fig. 10c ), pinpointing the clear predominance of climate change in the future variability of Pakistan rainfall.

Our multiscale investigation examines the meteorological triggers and the large-scale circulation drivers that initiated the unprecedented Pakistan rainfall in summer 2022, which broke records by huge margins (283% and 7σ exceedance). Our goal is to understand if such an extreme event merely resulted from the accidental combination of natural modes of fluctuations, or whether its occurrence relied on the additive effect of the anthropogenically-forced warming and internal variability.

We find that the record-breaking rainfall was not caused by a single major rainfall event, but resulted from the cumulative effect of six episodes of heavy rainfall, which were triggered by the synoptic low-pressure systems (LPSs) migrating northwestward through central India into southern Pakistan. In 2022, the LPS survived longer, traveled farther westward, and resided over the dry Pakistan for an extraordinarily long time as compared to most of their historical counterparts. A comparison of observations and climate models indicates that both internal variability and anthropogenic warming were conducive to the excessive Pakistan rainfall in summer 2022. While the internal variability arising from the sea surface temperature anomalies (i.e., La Niña and negative IOD) promoted Pakistan rainfall by reducing the mean eastward moisture outflow, it was the anthropogenically-driven enhancement in the cross-equatorial moisture transport over the Arabian Sea that supplied the fuel needed for LPS-related convection and consequently, enhanced the ability of LPSs to propagate farther westward into Pakistan before being dissipated. Multiple global reanalyses and models confirm that the cross-equatorial moisture transport in summer 2022, although abnormal, is in line with the unambiguous upward trend since the 1960s due to anthropogenic warming. Continued warming will cause the probability of extreme Pakistan rainfall to increase substantially in the coming decades, even under a moderate emission scenario.

Observation

The gridded daily rainfall data are obtained from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Unified Gauge-Based Analysis of Global Daily Precipitation (CPC-UNI; ref. 31 ), Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP; ref. 32 ), the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC; ref. 33 ), and Climate Hazards center InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS; ref. 34 ). The reanalysis six-hourly and monthly data at 0.5° x 0.625° lat/lon horizontal grid is taken from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2; ref. 35 ), which spans the period 1980 to present. Compared to other reanalysis products (JRA-55 36 , NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 37 , and ERA5 38 ), MERRA-2 is chosen for the current study because of the higher degree of consistency between MERRA-2 rainfall and the gauge-based observations (Supplementary Table 1 ). The observed monthly sea surface temperature data is taken from the the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Extended Reconstruction of Historical Sea Surface Temperature version 5 (ERSST v5) 39 .

Monthly mean data from models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6; ref. 40 ) is employed. The historical all-forcing experiment, historical single-forcing experiment, and future projections under scenarios based on the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) were considered. The historical all-forcing simulations is forced with observed time-varying changes in atmospheric composition (natural and anthropogenic) and land cover, whereas the single-forcing simulation is driven solely by greenhouse gases. SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 correspond to an additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W m −2 and 8.5 W m −2 by the year 2100, respectively. The information of CMIP6 models and the number of ensemble members can be found in Supplementary Table 2 .

Objective feature tracking of the South Asian monsoon low-pressure systems

Due to the overall weaker intensity of the South Asian monsoon LPSs as compared to tropical cyclones, tracking LPSs using reanalysis is challenging using automatic tracking algorithms 10 , 26 , 41 , 42 , 43 . The objective algorithm we used to create the objective LPS trajectories is built upon on the TempestExtreme 44 with 6-hourly MERRA-2 reanalysis.

Our algorithm mimics manual tracking procedure and generally follows the one discussed in refs. 30 , 45 , 46 , 47 using 850 hPa relative vorticity and sea level pressure fields. To reduce the bias that may be introduced from intra-seasonal and interannual variability, the synoptic fluctuations in sea level pressure are extracted using a 21-day high-pass filter. To reduce noise, the vorticity and sea level pressure fields are spectrally filtered to retain total wavenumber 5–42 and 5–63, respectively. The algorithm proceeds by identifying LPS candidates that have local vorticity maxima exceeding 4 × 10 –5  s −1 at each time step. To remove ambiguous candidates that are too weak to be identified as LPS, a closed contour criterion is further applied to ensure closed circulation centers by requiring a 0.2 hPa increase of sea level pressure increase within 5° of the candidate points. Nearby candidates are then stitched on sequential time steps to form trajectories with a maximum translation distance between candidates of 5°. Candidates that do not exhibit behavior consistent with a transiting feature are eliminated. Finally, only cyclones that last at least 2 days and have at least 1 track point within the domain 10°N-35°N, 60°E-95°E are retained. The bash script to obtain our LPS trajectories using TempestExtremes can be found in Supplementary Method 1 . The parameters of the tracking algorithm were determined and validated to best match the manual tracking results of 2022 LPS provided by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (Extended Data Fig. 2b ; ref. 3 ).

To measure LPS activities, the genesis density, track density, and translation velocity, are calculated. The genesis (track) density is computed by counting the number of LPS genesis (track) points within 500 km of each grid point each summer from June to September. Because the LPS locations are reported at 6-hourly time interval, we further divide the track density by four to convert the unit into number of LPS days. The translation velocity is computed using neighboring track positions. Daily rainfall is considered to be LPS-induced when a LPS is present within 500 km radius of the grid point during a time window of ±1 day. The time window of ±1 day is used to accommodate the potential underestimation due to the rainfall daily resolution, since precipitation from a single storm can occur within a consecutive time window 48 , 49 .

Moisture budget analysis

The column-integrated moisture budget for a steady-state atmosphere can be written in pressure coordinates as

where P represents precipitation, E is evaporation, g denotes gravitational acceleration, \(\rho\) is the water density, q is specific humidity, u is zonal wind, v is meridional wind, p is pressure and p s is its surface value.

For Pakistan region (20°N-32.5°N, 60°E-72.5°E; green boxed region in Fig. 2b ), the net moisture budget can be simplified as:

where the angle bracket represents areal average and ∮ denotes contour integral across the Pakistan box lateral boundaries. The first and second terms on the right-hand side represent the net moisture inflow in zonal and meridional direction, respectively.

Data availability

MERRA-2 data used in this study are available at Modeling and Assimilation Data and Information Services Center ( https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets?project=MERRA-2 ). CMIP6 data are openly available in the Earth System Grid Federation portal ( https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/ ).

Code availability

TempestExtreme can be downloaded from https://github.com/ClimateGlobalChange/tempestextremes . All figures were produced using Python v.3.6 and NCAR Command Language. The codes used for the analyses are available from the corresponding author.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the National Science Foundation Grant AGS16–07348. Y. You. was supported by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under the Future Investigators in NASA Earth and Space Science and Technology (FINESST) program – grant 80NSSC20K1656.

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You, Y., Ting, M. & Biasutti, M. Climate warming contributes to the record-shattering 2022 Pakistan rainfall. npj Clim Atmos Sci 7 , 89 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00630-4

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Pakistan’s Most Terrifying Adversary Is Climate Change

The country debates women’s honor inexhaustibly but pays little attention to the ferocious and imminent dangers of climate disasters.

By Fatima Bhutto

Ms. Bhutto is the author of the novel “The Runaways.”

Karachi is home. My bustling, chaotic city of about 20 million people on the Arabian Sea is an ethnically and religiously diverse metropolis and the commercial capital of Pakistan, generating more than half of the country’s revenue.

Over the decades, Karachi has survived violent sectarian strife , political violence between warring groups claiming the city and terrorism. Karachi has survived its gangsters sparring with rocket launchers; its police force , more feared than common criminals; its rulers and bureaucrats committed to rapacious, bottomless corruption . Now Karachi faces its most terrifying adversary: climate change.

In August, Karachi’s stifling summer heat was heavy and pregnant. The sapodilla trees and frangipani leaves were lush and green; the Arabian Sea, quiet and distant, had grown muddy. When the palm fronds started to sway, slowly, the city knew the winds had picked up and rain would follow. Every year the monsoons come — angrier and wilder — lashing the unprepared city. Studies show that climate change is causing monsoons to be more intense and less predictable, and cover larger areas of land for longer periods of time.

On Aug. 27, Karachi received nearly nine inches of monsoon rain , the highest amount of rainfall ever in a single day. Nineteen inches of rain fell in August, according to the meteorological officials. It is enough to drown a city that has no functioning drainage, no emergency systems and no reliable health care (except for those who can pay). Thousands of homes and settlements of the poor were subsumed and destroyed , and more than 100 people were killed.

A traders association estimated that the submerging of markets and warehouses damaged goods worth 25 billion Pakistani rupees, or about $150 million. Local papers estimated that with Karachi at a standstill for a week, in some congested areas for longer, Pakistan’s gross domestic product suffered daily losses of $449 million — a number that didn’t include the enormous informal economy. The World Bank estimates that 15 percent of gross domestic product of the Sindh province (Karachi is its capital) is lost every year to environmental damage and climate change.

Pakistan is the fifth most climate vulnerable nation in the world. Between 1998 and 2018, according to the Global Climate Risk Index, the country is estimated to have lost nearly 10,000 lives to climate-related disasters and suffered losses amounting to about $4 billion from 152 extreme weather events in that period. Analysts have estimated Pakistan’s climate migrants over the past decade at around 30 million people.

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Pakistan’s Climate Challenges Pose a National Security Emergency

A whole-of-government approach is needed now before climate change exacerbates conflict in the country.

By: Jumaina Siddiqui

Publication Type: Analysis

Pakistan is in the midst of a terrible heatwave , with the temperatures in parts of the country exceeding 120 F. April was the hottest month in the past 61 years, until May came along and saw warmer temperatures. At least 65 people have reportedly died due to the heatwave, but the actual numbers are certainly higher, and it’s caused massive flooding and infrastructure damage in Gilgit-Baltistan, water shortages in Karachi and broader Sindh province, and placed greater demands on the country’s weak electrical grid. Despite monsoon rains beginning in late June — causing at least 77 deaths — many parts of the country still swelter. Pakistan should treat these climate disasters as a full-fledged national security emergency before they stoke conflict that adds further stress amid the country’s other numerous challenges.

Climate Challenges Could Stoke Conflict

For the past 20 years, Pakistan has consistently ranked among the top 10 most vulnerable countries on the Climate Risk Index, with 10,000 fatalities due to climate-related disasters and financial losses amounting to about $4 billion from 173 extreme weather events. These challenges threaten to spark climate-related conflict over resources — such as water — that have become scarce due to climate change impacts. Climate-related disasters like floods, heatwaves or tsunamis can also exacerbate tensions among groups who already have a history of conflict. Any of these scenarios would be a serious threat to Pakistan and have serious ramifications for any government in the immediate aftermath of a climate disaster or as part of efforts to mitigate future disasters.

This year’s heatwave further exacerbated food insecurity, which can undermine peace and stability, according to the United Nations. Scorching temperatures have damaged entire orchards and hurt wheat production across Pakistan, adversely impacting the livelihoods of many small farmers and rendering formerly arable land unusable for agriculture in some parts of the country. Already facing wheat shortages due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Pakistan’s domestic wheat production this year will be reduced by 10% .

During Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s visit to the United States to attend a United Nations meeting on food security, he highlighted that the country is under threat of food, water and energy insecurity. Unfortunately, it is not just a threat anymore but a reality for Pakistan. Combined with soaring inflation and the country’s continued political instability, this is a recipe for disaster. All these trends are potential catalysts that could trigger climate-induced migration from rural areas to urban centers as Pakistanis seek employment and stable living conditions. This puts an additional strain on massive cities and urban infrastructure that already cannot manage their current population levels.

A Mixed Response

Pakistan’s Supreme Court has also taken notice of Pakistan’s climate change vulnerabilities. In a recent decision, the court noted that that in urban areas in particular, relevant government authorities should take into consideration “adaptation, climate resiliency and sustainability…[as] they are essential to actualize the fundamental rights of the people.”

While some subnational government agencies have been more effective in preparing for climate-related disasters, other have not. In Gilgit Baltistan, the heatwave caused a massive glacial flood, but thanks to continuous monitoring by the relevant local government authorities, people living in vulnerable locations were relocated to safer places before the floods. After the 2020 floods in Karachi, the provincial government decided to address the causes that lead to the severe flooding after the waters subsided. However, their heavy-handed actions — such as tearing down settlements along the nalas, or waterways, that should have drained the flood waters without considering proper plans to resettle or adequately compensate those displaced from the settlements — led to a number of protests from both communities and civil society activists.

It took this heatwave for the Sindh government to notice and take action against the water mafias controlling the city, even though this has been a problem for a decade or more. The water issue connects to the larger issue of natural resource usage and extraction throughout Pakistan, in particular the availability of water, whether it is for agricultural purposes or for consumption. The current heatwave has created an acute water crisis in Sindh, leading to inter-provincial tensions with Punjab — and it’s unclear if there is a resolution in sight .

Pakistan has tried to play a significant role on the international stage, participating in COP26 and signing the global methane pledge. The country is one of the world’s major methane emitters , predominately through its agricultural sector. How this commitment will impact this sector more broadly remains to be seen, especially as Pakistan seeks international financing to meet this commitment. While climate-smart agricultural practices generally save money in the long run, it is important to understand how these changes would impact large-scale farmers and their workers, the latter of whom are one of the most economically disadvantaged groups in country. 

The previous Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government had a strong advocate in Malik Amin Aslam, who served as the special advisor to the prime minster on climate change. The PTI government made significant strides in their efforts to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change such as committing to having 60% of energy coming from “clean” sources and to having electric vehicles making up 30% of the market by 2030.

The current coalition government, led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), has smartly continued the trend of strong leadership on climate change by appointing Senator Sherry Rehman , a member of the Pakistan Peoples Party, as minster for climate change. While leadership on this issue is imperative, it is equally important that there is a tangible and sustained collaboration and coordination between the national and provincial governments to develop a roadmap to address the impacts of climate change on the country. Because of devolution in Pakistan, issues like water, food and agriculture, and environment are ones where the provinces have the authority to pass governing legislation, while climate change is a federal issue. This disconnect must be resolved through a more robust system for interprovincial coordination. 

What Pakistan Needs

The PML-N government’s announcement to set up a climate change task force in response to the heatwave is a step in the right direction. But if Pakistan is serious about tackling climate change and investing in mitigation and adaption efforts, what is needed is an overarching framework to coordinate this response. One recent model to look to is Pakistan’s National Command and Operation Center (NCOC), which led the country’s COVID-19 response. A climate-focused NCOC would ensure that sufficient resources are allocated to address the impacts of climate change on the country and appropriate coordination takes place that builds political consensus. This would require relevant provincial and national bodies to come together to work develop a common action plan to address the internal impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the NCOC would spearhead the implementation  of Pakistan’s National Determined Contributions under the Paris Accords because some of these efforts would need provincial buy-in.   

It is unclear if Pakistan’s new climate change task force will carry the same weight as the COVID-19 NCOC. But if it is to succeed, then learning from the successes and failures of the NCOC model is imperative. The COVID-19 NCOC took a whole-of-government approach to tackle the crisis head on. In the beginning there was significant tension between the federal and provincial governments on measures such as the timing and scope of lockdowns and whether provinces had the legal mandate to dictate how businesses functioned during the pandemic. However, in the interest of combatting the pandemic, a delicate understanding between and cooperation among political parties in power in different provinces did eventually occur. 

National and provincial governments are working in lockstep right when it comes to energy conservation. But this cooperation will need to be sustained over the long haul. Unlike COVID-19 where we have vaccines and other mitigation tools, climate change is a significantly more complex challenge that will require long-term coordination and commitment. Almost PKR 10 billion (approximately $50 million) has been allocated to the Ministry of Climate Change under the 2022-23 national budget, a decrease from the PKR 14 billion in the 2021-22 national budget. This change is likely due to the economic situation in the country, but still shows a commitment to the issue and continuity between governments as the PTI government’s signature “10 Billion Tree Tsunami” project received an earmark. 

Alongside these domestic efforts, both the United States and Pakistan should hold a second meeting of the U.S.-Pakistan Climate and Environment Working Group, following the first meeting held in September 2021. This working group could serve as the springboard to begin repairing and resetting the tenuous U.S.-Pakistan relationship as addressing climate change and promoting regional stability is in the interest of both nations.   

All mainstream political parties agree that climate change is threat to Pakistan’s social and economic stability. Addressing climate change in Pakistan truly requires a “ war-footing ” and a whole-of-government approach. Otherwise, the consequences of inaction or improper action could foster greater turmoil and strife for all levels of Pakistani society. 

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Thursday, June 27, 2024

By: Sanjay Kathuria

Despite a three-year long cease-fire along their contested border, trade and civil society engagement between India and Pakistan has dwindled, exacerbating the fragility of their relationship. With recently re-elected governments now in place in both countries, there is a window of opportunity to rekindle trade to bolster their fragile peace, support economic stability in Pakistan, create large markets and high-quality jobs on both sides, and open doors for diplomatic engagement that could eventually lead to progress on more contentious issues.

Type: Analysis

How Have India’s Neighbors Reacted to Its Election?

Tuesday, June 25, 2024

By: Humayun Kabir;   Geoffrey Macdonald, Ph.D. ;   Nilanthi Samaranayake ;   Asfandyar Mir, Ph.D.

Narendra Modi was sworn in on June 9 for his third consecutive term as India’s prime minister. Public polls had predicted a sweeping majority for Modi, so it came as some surprise that his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost ground with voters and had to rely on coalition partners to form a ruling government. Although India’s elections were fought mainly on domestic policy issues, there were important exceptions and Modi’s electoral setback could have implications for India’s regional and global policies.

Global Elections & Conflict ;  Global Policy

What Does Further Expansion Mean for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?

Thursday, May 30, 2024

By: Bates Gill;   Carla Freeman, Ph.D.

Last week, foreign ministers from member-states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) gathered in Astana, Kazakhstan. The nine-member SCO — made up of China, India, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan — represents one of the largest regional organizations in the world. And with the SCO’s annual heads-of-state summit slated for early July, the ministers’ meeting offers an important glimpse into the group’s priorities going forward. USIP’s Bates Gill and Carla Freeman examine how regional security made its way to the top of the agenda, China’s evolving role in Central Asia and why SCO expansion has led to frustrations among member states.

Type: Question and Answer

Global Policy

Asfandyar Mir on Balancing Counterterrorism and Strategic Competition

Tuesday, May 21, 2024

By: Asfandyar Mir, Ph.D.

As terror threats emanating from Afghanistan and Pakistan rise, many may see counterterrorism as a distraction from other U.S. priorities, such as competition with China and Russia. But investment in counterterrorism can work “preventively, to shield the strategic competition agenda,” says USIP’s Asfandyar Mir.

Type: Podcast

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Daily Times

Your right to know Sunday, September 08, 2024

Perspectives

Climate change: causes, outcomes in Pakistan and a way forward

September 24, 2019

Climate change can generally be defined as a change in global or regional climate patterns. In particular, it is the change apparent from the mid-to-late 20th century onwards, and attributed largely to the increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide produced by the use of fossil fuels. The Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, defines climate change as: “A change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.”

Human activities are the major cause of climate change. The foremost cause is global warming. Burning fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, has increased the concentration of carbon dioxide. Due to expansion of the greenhouse effect, global warming has risen. As per this phenomenon, gases such as water vapors, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons in the our atmosphere prevents the heat to leave the earth’s atmosphere; resultantly, the ozone layer depletes and the temperature rises.

In its Fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that there is a more than 95 percent probability that human activities over the past 50 years have warmed our planet. Industrial activities that our modern civilisation depends upon have raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from 280 parts per million to 400 parts per million in the last 150 years. The panel also concluded there is a better than 95 percent probability that human-produced greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have caused much of the observed increase in earth’s temperatures over the past 50 years. About half of the CO2 emissions, between 1750 and 2010, have occurred in the last 40 years.

Deforestation and increase in the use of chemicals in domestic and agriculture life is another reason of climate change. Deforestation is the second leading cause of global warming and produces about 24 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Scientists say that deforestation in tropical rainforests adds more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere than the sum total of all the cars and trucks on the world’s roads.

The surge in the uses of chemicals in domestic as well as in agriculture, in the shape of fertilisers, also plays its role in climate change. The high rate of application of nitrogen-rich fertilisers has effects on the heat storage of cropland (nitrogen oxides have 300 times more heat-trapping capacity per unit of volume than carbon dioxide) and the run-off of excess fertilizers creates ‘dead zones’ in our oceans. In addition to these effects, high nitrate levels in groundwater due to over fertilization are cause for concern for human health.

These causes resulted in climate change and have a perilous aftermath. In this regard, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created by the United Nations Environment Programme (UN Environment) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in 1988. It now engages with 195 member countries, which provides policymakers with regular scientific assessments on climate change, its implications and potential future risks, as well as to put forward adaptation and mitigation options.

The foremost hazardous evidence is the rise of carbon dioxide in out atmosphere. As per NASA’s scientific evidence, for a millennium, the level of carbon dioxide (parts per million) was below 300, which started to rise since 1950, and is now above 400. Secondly, as per NASA’s evidence, the planet’s average surface temperature has risen about 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit (0.9 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere. Most of the warming occurred in the past 35 years, with the five warmest years on record taking place since 2010. This is also established by the United Nations’ report, prepared by the World Meteorological Organisation, on September 22, 2019. It states that the period “is currently estimated to be 1.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial era of 1850-1900, and 0.2 degrees Celsius warmer than 2011-2015”.

Thirdly, the oceans are getting warmer, and ice sheets are shrinking. As per NASA, the oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of more than 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969. The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased and have lost an average of 286 billion tons of ice per year between 1993 and 2016, while Antarctica lost about 127 billion tons of ice per year during the same time period. The rate of Antarctica ice mass loss has tripled in the last decade.

Fourthly, the glaciers are melting and sea level is rising. Around the globe, the glaciers are retreating including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa. The global sea level rose about eight inches in the last century. The rate in the last two decades, however, is nearly double that of the last century and is accelerating slightly every year.

There are other drastic evidences of climate change. Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly. Disturbed rainfalls and extreme weather events have increased. Also, the ocean acidification, which has increased by about 30 percent since the Industrial Revolution, is another evidence of climate change. It also has a negative impact on crop yield productions. The direct impact on the lives of humans is on the vulnerable and the marginalised segment of society.

As per NASA, 97 percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities

As per IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, numerous risks are involved that raise concern. These include risk of death, injuries, health or disturbed livelihoods due to storms, flooding and sea-level rise. The risk in water supply, supply of electricity and emergency situations are also there. The foremost risk is food insecurity due to droughts, flooding, and precipitation variability. There is the risk to lose marine and coastal ecosystems and biodiversity as well.

Although Pakistan is not much contributing in global warming and climate change, yet it is the seventh most affected country. The Global Change Impact Studies Centre of Pakistan shows that the mean annual temperature has increased in the recent past with greater increase in Sindh and Balochistan. During the last century, the average temperature over Pakistan has increased by 0.6°C, which is in conformity with the increase of the average global temperature. Future climate change projections, based on all four IPCC-AR5 RCPs scenarios, show that the average rise in temperature over Pakistan, by the end of the century, will be about 1°C higher compared to the global average. This increase, particularly in temperature, is associated with a number of adverse impacts, including the increasing frequency of extreme events (floods, droughts, heat waves, and cyclonic activity), steady regression of most glaciers (except a small minority in the Karakorum Range) that supply the bulk of the country’s water supply and changes in the rainfall patterns.

Pakistan’s water cycle is the primary affected area of climate change. Agriculture is one of the major sectors likely to be adversely affected by climate change. Climate change can disrupt food availability, reduce access to food, and affect food quality. Projected increases in temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, changes in extreme weather events, and reductions in water availability may all result in reduced agricultural productivity. Seasonal smog is also due to climate change and pollution.

Pakistan has also suffered economically due to climate change. According to experts, Pakistan has faced around 150 freak weather incidents as a result of climate change in the past 20 years: flash floods, smog in winter, forest fires in summer, melting glaciers, freaky heatwaves, landslides, displaced population. During the floods in 2010-11, almost 10 percent of Pakistan’s population was displaced in two provinces, one in the north and another in the south. Last year, the cost of extreme weather as a consequence of climate change was listed at $384 million; in the past 20 years, there has been a cost of almost two billion dollars to the national economy because of the ravages of climate change.

The writing is on the wall. The world is responding to the danger now. Greta Thunberg, a teenage Swedish environment activist, shookup the top leaders with a Global Climate Strike call on September 20, 2019, through which the protest was recorded in around 150 countries, in more than 4,500 places.

The UN has shown its commitment to fight in this noble cause. There are various agreements and protocols for climate change. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the main international agreement on climate action. It was one of the three conventions adopted at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992. To date, it has been ratified by 195 countries. It started as a way for countries to work together to limit global temperature increases and climate change, and to cope with their impacts.

In the mid-1990s, the UNFCCC signatories realised that stronger provisions were needed to reduce emissions. In this regard, they agreed to the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, which introduced legally binding emission reduction targets for developed countries. Next comes the Paris Agreement; the Paris climate conference took place from November 30 to December 11, 2015. On December 12, the parties reached a new global agreement on climate change. The agreement presents a balanced outcome with an action plan to limit global warming ‘well below’ two degree Celsius. There is also the Montreal Protocol 1987, which is a global agreement to protect the stratospheric ozone layer by phasing out the production and consumption of ozone-depleting substances. There is also the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) 1994 to combat desertification and mitigate the effects of drought in countries experiencing serious drought/ desertification.

What requires is that we must change course by 2020, as the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterreshas said; we risk missing the point where we can avoid the “disastrous consequences for people and all the natural systems that sustain us.”

In this regard, there are the following suggestions to tackle global warming. Dramatically reducing our use of fossil fuels, especially carbon-intensive coal, is essential to tackle climate change. There are many ways to begin this process. Key action steps include: not building any new coal-burning power plants, initiating a phased shutdown of coal plants starting with the oldest and dirtiest, and capturing and storing carbon emissions from power plants. While it may sound like science fiction, the technology exists to store carbon emissions underground.

Taken together with the tropical deforestation, emissions from agriculture represent nearly 30 percent of the world’s heat-trapping emissions. We can fight global warming by reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and by making our food production practices more sustainable.

Using alternative sources of energy is more efficient and meets the problem of global warming. Energy producing from solar, wind, tidal, and biomass are more clean and renewable. There are least effects if we produce electricity from the alternative sources of energy. Nuclear power results in a few global warming emissions; an increased share of nuclear power in the energy mix could help reduce global warming.

A successful global compact on climate change must include financial assistance from richer countries to poorer countries to help make the transition to low-carbon development pathways and to help adapt to the impacts of climate change. The energy used to power, heat, and cool our homes, businesses, and industries are the single largest contributor to global warming. Energy efficiency technologies are the dire need of the hour.

Transportation sector’s emissions have increased at a faster rate than any other energy-usingsector over the past decade. For this, efficient fuel consumption modes of transport, and switching to low-carbon fuels are the requirement of time.

In a nutshell, we must develop a two-pronged approach: firstly, we must reduce emissions and stabilise the levels of greenhouse gasses in our atmosphere; secondly, we must adapt climate-friendly lifestyles and pursue the principles of sustainable economic growth.

Although Pakistan is facing environmental challenges, which include climate change impacts, loss of biological diversity, deforestation and degradation of air and water quality, Pakistan is trying to respond well. Because of the deteriorating economy, the country could not do much. But still, the present government has launched the Ten Billion Trees Tsunami Programme to lead the country towards aiming at revival of forestry and control air, weather, wildlife, forestation, watershed management and soil conservation to combat the negative impacts of climate change. Pakistan is amongst the pioneers who have established a climate ministry. The country has also launched the Climate Change Policy 2012. The National Climate Change Policy comprehensively addresses all possible challenges of climate change and provides a foundational framework to tackle the problem. But Pakistan alone cannot do it. It is a global issue. The whole of the world’s future is at stake.

It is time that the United Nations, along with all 195 countries, do not let the grass grow under its feet and act now to save the mother earth.

The writer is an advocate of the High Court and teaches law

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Pakistan Urgently Needs Significant Investments in Climate Resilience to Secure its Economy and Reduce Poverty

ISLAMABAD, November 10, 2022 —This year’s heatwave and devastating floods are a reminder that climate change-induced disasters can significantly set back Pakistan’s development ambitions and its ability to reduce poverty. These disasters have caused more than 1,700 deaths and displaced more than 8 million people. The damage to infrastructure, assets, crops, and livestock has also been massive, with more than $30 billion in damages and economic losses. The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for Pakistan released today concludes that the country needs fundamental shifts in its development path and policies, requiring substantial investments in people-centric climate adaptation and resilience, that will require international support.

“The recent flooding and humanitarian crisis provide a wake-up call for urgent action to prevent further devastation to the people of Pakistan and its economy due to climate change,” said Martin Raiser, World Bank Vice President for South Asia. “Accelerated climate actions can protect the economy from shocks and secure more sustainable and inclusive growth in Pakistan.”

The CCDR notes that the combined risks of extreme climate-related events, environmental degradation, and air pollution are projected to reduce Pakistan’s GDP by at least 18 to 20% by 2050. This will stall progress on economic development and poverty reduction.

“If we want to tackle climate change, we need to prioritize investing in adaptation to help prepare Pakistan for future climate-related calamities, which are growing in frequency and intensity,” said Hela Cheikhrouhou, IFC Regional Vice President for Middle East, Central Asia, Türkiye, Afghanistan and Pakistan . “ With the right policy frameworks, Pakistan has the opportunity to attract private investment to build its resilience, particularly in sectors such as water management, agriculture, urban infrastructure, municipal services, and housing.”

To improve adaptation to climate change and avoid high costs, the report recommends five priority transitions:

1. Transforming the Agri-Food System: Productivity in the agri-food system – the largest employer, particularly for poor and vulnerable households – has been plummeting due to the degradation of land, overuse of chemical inputs and water, and lack of research. And yields are projected to drop another 50% by 2050. To bolster rural incomes and strengthen food and water security, Pakistan needs to repurpose environmentally damaging subsidies, promote climate-smart and regenerative agriculture and livestock systems, and prioritize ecosystem restoration.

2. Building Resilient and Livable Cities: Pakistan’s population living in urban areas, already highly exposed to pollution and climate change, will increase from 37% in 2020 to 60% in 2050. To ensure cities become more liveable, urgent reforms are needed for more integrated land use planning and increased investments in municipal services and in energy efficiency and clean transportation. To this end, strong municipal governments, and the expansion of city finances via property taxation are critical.

3. Accelerating a Just Transition to Sustainable Energy and Low-carbon Transport: The energy sector is a critical enabler of economic development and poverty reduction. However, it is a huge drain on public finances and foreign exchange reserves and a major contributor to GHG emissions. Pakistan must prioritize reducing the cost of generation including through energy efficiency, ensuring cost-reflective tariffs and improved targeting of subsidies, while addressing technical and collection losses in transmission and distribution. Scaled-up investment in mass transit can avoid locking in highly polluting modes of transport.

4. Strengthening Human Capital to Achieve Sustained and Equitable Development and Climate Resilience: To address its human capital crisis, Pakistan needs to improve the management of water, sanitation, and hygiene, which is the main driver of child stunting, and reduce high fertility rates. Pakistan should also ensure universal access to quality education and expand its social-protection system by improving benefits, particularly for those at the highest risk.

5. Aligning Financing Policies, Incentives, and Institutions to Support Scale-up of Climate Actions: Implementing these policies and executing a climate-resilient and low-carbon development agenda will require total investment needs that amount to around 10% of the cumulative GDP up to 2030. Accelerating the ongoing reforms to expand domestic revenue mobilization, including raising new municipal and property taxes, as well as improving efficiency and targeting of subsidies for agriculture and energy while protecting the most vulnerable will help to finance a large part of the needed investments. Yet, this will not be enough. A comprehensive financing strategy, involving greater private sector involvement and significant international support will be essential to complement Pakistan’s own commitment towards resilient and inclusive development.

“Foreign private capital can play an important role in addressing the climate change challenges in Pakistan,”  said   Ethiopis Tafara, MIGA Vice President and Chief Risk, Legal and Administrative Officer.  “Sustaining flows of foreign direct investment that support climate mitigation and adaptation will contribute toward financing Pakistan’s low-carbon transition.”

Pakistan is not a significant contributor to global warming, but it is on a high-growth trajectory of carbon emissions linked to fossil fuel use. This is also a source of the country’s chronic fiscal stress and worsening air pollution. Therefore, climate actions that bring co-benefits to both adaptation and mitigation and contribute to improving development outcomes should have the highest priority.

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World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports

The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are new core diagnostic reports that integrate climate change and development considerations. They will help countries prioritize the most impactful actions that can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation, while delivering on broader development goals. CCDRs build on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce GHG emissions and climate vulnerabilities, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The reports suggest concrete, priority actions to support a low-carbon, resilient transition. As public documents, CCDRs aim to inform governments, citizens, the private sector, and development partners, and enable engagement with the development and climate agenda. CCDRs will feed into other core Bank Group diagnostics, country engagements and operations, and help attract funding and direct financing for high-impact climate action.

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Climate change: a real threat to Pakistan

There are some efforts in addressing climate change at the global and national levels

The International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) published a 3675-page report earlier this week which should not be ignored due to the hypes surrounding the Ukraine war and a no-trust vote against PM Imran Khan. The report titled ‘Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’ found that the scientific evidence has become stronger that all life on earth, including human civilisation, is vulnerable to a changing climate. But how?

Food production: There is new knowledge that climate change is affecting food webs. Changes in temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather have increased the frequency and affected agriculture production and patterns. The report referred to the flood damages to crops in Pakistan in 2010 which cost $4.5 billion. It is also estimated that 8-10% of today’s farmland will become climatically unsuitable by 2100. This is very relevant to Pakistan which imports food products regularly from overseas to feed 220 million people in the country.

Water: Climate change will impact water quality and availability causing vulnerabilities to both rural and urban areas. The rural areas will suffer from a drought affecting food production and the livelihood of rural communities. On the other hand, the urban population suffer from water scarcity and heatwaves. The report found that the average mortality from floods, storms and droughts is 9 times higher in Pakistan and other highly vulnerable countries as compared to European countries. This is particularly alarming as various part of the country is suffering from water availability.

Coastal cities: People living in cities face higher risks of heat stress, reduced air quality, lack of water, and food shortages caused by climate change. However, this risk is severe in coastal cities such as Karachi due to the risk from coastal-specific climate hazards. The recent urban flooding in Karachi shows that flood-related vulnerabilities will be spread over rich and poor areas of the city.

There are some efforts in addressing climate change at the global and national levels. However, these efforts are too late and too little. It is clear now that minor, marginal, reactive or incremental changes won’t be sufficient. We need urgent and more ambitious action and, at the same time, rapid and deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. The report found institutional and financial barriers that restrict cities from investing in new parks and green infrastructure to cool down during heatwaves.

What is the solution then? The IPCC report highlights a solutions framework called Climate Resilient Development or CRD.

CRD means cutting back greenhouse gas emissions and conserving biodiversity in energy, industry, health, water, food, urban development, housing and transport policies and practices, in fact everyday decision-making. Its means CRD cannot be achieved with a single action such as planting trees. In fact, it involves fundamental changes to how government and society function, including changes to underlying values, worldviews, ideologies, social structures, political and economic systems in the country. The report admits that the world has no single magic solution and each country has to devise its own path for CRD.

Looking at the climate change risk and vulnerability for Pakistan and the capacities of government, the whole nation should prioritise climate change understanding in their daily life. Therefore, adaptation to climate change for the government means transforming the policies we plan our cities, regions and infrastructure. Adaptation to climate change for society means reducing water usage, using healthy diets, asking for sustainable farming, using cycling and public transport and finding green and clean solutions for our houses.

We have to remember the scientific evidence is clear — climate change is a threat to human well-being and the health of the planet. Any further delay in concerted action at national, provincial and local levels will miss a rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 3 rd , 2022.

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The future is in danger

Climate change is the most important issue of our age; we are the first to see its early warning signals and the last to have a chance to prevent it from occurring. Living in a bubble of ignorance can only get us so far; our globe is indeed a scene of melting glaciers, rising floods, animal extinctions, extreme weather events and the list continues. Spreading climate change awareness using every way possible, including seemingly insignificant forms such as writing school essays, cannot be overstated.

Climate change has put a lot of countries at hazard, and the risk is significantly larger for developing countries. Because of this serious problem, which is having a severe impact on the area, South Asia has grown more disaster-prone. In general, climate change is accelerating and having severe consequences for Pakistan.

Pakistan is geologically located in a region where the effects of climate change are being felt fairly strongly. This climate disaster has had enormous economic, social, and environmental consequences. Statistics from the 2010 floods demonstrate the devastating effects on the 20 million individuals who lost their homes, were injured, or went missing. Similarly, another flood in Pakistan in 2012 wreaked havoc.

Climate change puts Pakistan’s income, housing, food, and security at danger. Considering the tough facts, the Pakistani government must take urgent measures to combat the detrimental effects of climate change. Without a doubt, the authorities are paying close attention to this problem, which they see as sensitive and serious.

Pakistan faces “significantly higher average temperatures than the global average, with a potential rise of 1.3°C-4.9°C by the 2090s over the 1986-2005 baseline,” according to a study, which also noted that Pakistan had “some of the highest disaster risk levels in the world, ranked 18 out of 191 countries by the 2020 Inform Risk Index.”

Under the most optimistic emission scenarios, the global average temperature rise by 2080-99 will be around 3.7°C. Furthermore, changes in Pakistan’s hydrologic regimens, and hence its water supplies, are largely unknown, although dry situations are projected to become more common. Extreme climatic events are expected to become more common and intense, increasing catastrophe risk, particularly for the poor and minority populations.

Including an average monthly maximum of roughly 27°C and an average June maximum of 36°C, Pakistan often witnessed some of the world’s greatest maximum temperatures. In Pakistan, the current median yearly likelihood of a heat wave happening in any specific region is roughly 3 percent. As seen by estimates that over 65,000 individuals were hospitalized with heatstroke during Pakistan’s 2015 heatwave, a huge section of the population is at danger.

Communities offer to the problem of improving resilience and tackling climate change unique views, skills, and a wealth of information. Rather than being seen as recipients, they should be treated as participants in developing resilience. Community leaders may define goals, influence ownership, and create and administer investment programmes that are responsive to their community’s needs, according to research and experience.

Many parts of Pakistan endure yearly temperatures of 38°C or more, and when weather patterns combine to produce protracted periods of heatwave, major human health consequences can occur. Between 1997 and 2015, Pakistan witnessed 126 heatwaves, an average of seven each year, with an upward trend.

Pakistan is a low-middle-income country with a primarily agrarian economy; however, it is gradually industrializing and more than a third of the population currently lives in cities. For food and nutrition security, the country significantly relies on its climate-sensitive land, wa ter, and forest resources. Agriculture continues to be a significant occupation for 42 percent of the population. Irrigation from the glacier-fed River Indus and its tributaries supports about 90 percent of farmland. Glacier melt has accelerated due to climate change, increasing the likelihood of glacier lake outpouring floods (GLOF) and mudslides downstream. Faster glacier melt, rising temperatures, shifting seasons, and irregular rainfall patterns are all affecting the flow of the River Indus, which will have a growing impact on agriculture, food production, and lives. Already, 39 percent of the population lives in poverty, and the loss of livelihoods indicated in this research will have a significant impact on people’s health and capacity to access healthcare.

Heat fatigue, starvation, the introduction of vector-borne diseases like dengue fever, and an increase in the burden of aquatic infections will all have an impact on people’s capacity to work and make a living.

Migrants, internally displaced individuals, and religious and ethnic minorities will be particularly susceptible, since they are frequently confined to hazard-prone land and face challenges to treatment, including financial constraints resulting from informal work. Child marriages, early births, and domestic violence may become more common as a result of climate change. Due to decreasing food production, women and children will be more prone to malnourishment and malnutrition.

Smog is another major issue in Pakistan’s industrialized eastern Punjab region, where the provincial capital, Lahore, is clogged with smoke throughout the winter months. Authorities said they are working to solve the problem, which involves thousands of brick kilns.

Millions of impoverished people will confront significant problems as the climate changes, including severe events, health consequences, social protection, economic stability, mobility, water security, cultural heritage, and other dangers.

Climate change is inextricably linked to global inequality patterns. Climate change harms the most vulnerable individuals the most, although they contribute the least to the catastrophe. Millions of vulnerable people are facing disproportionate problems as the effects of climate change worsen in terms of severe events, health effects, food security, economic assurance, water security, and cultural identity. Female-headed families, children, persons with disabilities, Indigenous Peoples and ethnic minorities, landless tenants, migrant workers, displaced persons, sexual and gender minorities, older people, and other socially excluded groups are all highly prone to disasters. Their vulnerability stems from a variety of factors, including their geographic location, financial, socioeconomic, cultural, and gender status, as well as their access to medical care, decision-making, and justice.

Poor and oppressed people are demanding for more aggressive climate action. Climate change is more than an environmental disaster; it is also a social crisis that requires us to confront issues of inequality on many levels: between rich and poor nations; between men and women; and between generations. For more effective development outcomes, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has underlined the need for climate solutions that adhere to climate justice principles (i.e., recognition, procedural, and distributive justice).

Climate change mitigation initiatives frequently disproportionately affect the most disadvantaged. Climate change adaptation measures can impose a greater financial burden on poor households in the absence of well-designed and supportive policies; for example, policies to expand public transportation or carbon pricing may result in higher public transportation fares, which will disproportionately affect poorer households. Similarly, restricting forestry activities to particular periods of the year might have an impact on indigenous populations that rely on woods for their livelihoods all year. In addition to addressing the distributional effects of decarbonizing economies, there is a need to understand and address social inclusion, cultural, and political economy issues, such as deciding on the types of transitions required (economic, social, etc.) and identifying opportunities to address social inequality during these processes.

Furthermore, communities offer to the problem of improving resilience and tackling climate change unique views, skills, and a wealth of information. Rather than being seen as recipients, they should be treated as participants in developing resilience. Community leaders may define goals, influence ownership, and create and administer investment programmes that are responsive to their community’s needs, according to research and experience.

In creating climate resilience, the IPCC’s newest report highlights the relevance of many types of knowledge such as scientific, Indigenous, and local knowledge. Communities and marginalized people may be connected to higher-level policy, technical, and financial support for locally relevant and successful development outcomes through innovations in climate finance architecture.

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Climate change and Pakistan’s economy

Natural calamities have put people’s incomes, health, housing, infrastructure and food security at risk

n his recent visit to Pakistan, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said, “I have never seen climate carnage on the scale of the floods here in Pakistan. As our planet continues to warm, all countries will increasingly suffer losses and damage from climate beyond their capacity to adapt. This is a global crisis. It demands a global response.”

Floods in 2010 and unusual spell of torrential rains in recent months, extraordinary melting of glaciers, severe heat waves, sea storms and cyclones, extinction of some species are clear signs of things to come.

Climate change activists are continuously talking about the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reaching yet another threshold. GHGs are the main cause of the climate shift on the planet. This shift appears in the form of disastrous natural calamities. Pakistan emits 0.3 percent of the global GHGs by volume but has to bear the brunt of the consequences.

The US, China and India emit a major share of the GHGs.

The World Bank has anticipated the poverty rate in Pakistan at 39.3 percent, using the lower middle-income poverty rate of $3.2 per day. The rate for the upper-middle class stands at $5.5 per day for the fiscal year 2020-21. This shows that Pakistan is facing a dire economic crisis. According to the Global Climate Risk Index, Pakistan has been placed fifth in the world. Pakistan lost 91,089 lives and suffered an economic loss of $81 billion and observed 152 extreme weather events from 1999 to 2019.

Pakistan is suffering from climate change despite its meager contribution to carbon emissions. The country witnesses severe climate-related natural hazards due to its geographic location and varied tropical continental climate. The recent floods have devastated the inhabitants of the affected areas. Nearly 2 million houses had been impacted by the floods by September 19.

12,700 kilometres of roads were damaged and 7.6 million people have been affected directly. The overall loss has been estimated at around $30 billion. More than 80 districts of Balochistan, Sindh and the Punjab came under water. Along with other sectors, the education system has been affected severely. 17,566 schools were damaged or destroyed by the unusual rains: 15,842 in Sindh, 544 in Balochistan and 1,180 in the Punjab.

Major crops and livelihoods in many areas have been destroyed. This has resulted in a serious threat to food security in the country. Despite being an agricultural country, Pakistan has to import grain. This will further deplete foreign reserves.

A more serious economic crisis can be averted by adopting some judicious and effective policies. First, reforms should be introduced to increase exports from the country so that the economy becomes stable. Political and economic challenges like removing barriers in the way of foreign direct investment should get special attention.

Special measures should be taken to win the trust of foreign investors in the country so that local production and employment increases. Special plans to harness renewable energy resources should be executed as soon as possible. Solar and wind energy are good options to meet the energy demands.

Climate resilient infrastructure should be a priority. Developing the human capital of the country is the need of the hour. Pakistan has one of the highest young populations in the world. It is high time to engage the youth in building climate resilient infrastructure in Pakistan.

Pakistan needs to attract more FDI in sustainable and resilient development programmes. Some special initiatives to empower the small farmers, women and labourers should be taken by the government to overcome poverty caused by climate change. These may include loans and small and medium business schemes.

The relevant authorities should control illegal construction of buildings in the path of the rivers and streams. It is time to raise awareness among citizens about dealing with the natural hazards to minimise the losses. The government should allocate budgets for dealing with unprecedented calamities so that the loss to life and property is minimised.

Precautionary measures can mitigate the effect of floods, earthquakes and storms. Building dams and water reservoirs are long-term measures to avoid natural calamities. Public participation should be a regular component of the regional development strategy.

Climate change has put people’s incomes, health, housing, infrastructure and food security at risk. The government should adhere to international best practices to alleviate the effects of natural hazards. Cooperation with international bodies should be enhanced and solid steps taken to minimise the effects of climate change.

Pakistan should demand that the UN and its affiliated bodies pay special attention to the development of basic infrastructure. Awareness campaigns should be launched to educate the people about the threats from climate change so that the common man can play his role in mitigation efforts.

The writer is a project assistant at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Islamabad. She can be reached at [email protected]

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Pakistani young people have their say on climate

August 11, 2021.

James Vener

Climate Specialist, UNDP

Syeda Hadika Jamshaid

Pakistan Ministry of Climate Change

Pakistanis face extreme challenges such as melting glaciers limiting freshwater availability, more floods and drought, decreases in crop yield and greater air pollution. 

For a country consistently ranked in the Top 10 most vulnerable countries impacted by climate change , where young people comprise 68 percent of the population, this is clearly an age group whose perspective needs to be heard.

The Ministry of Climate Change, Viamo and UNDP recently completed a survey and analysis to better understand the perception and opinions of Pakistan’s youth regarding climate change. How does climate change impact the lives of young people? What are their primary concerns? What are their thoughts on what should be national climate priorities? The Pakistani government will be able to draw on the findings of the survey to better execute its climate policy and initiatives.

The survey shed light on the exposure of young people to risk, and their sensitivity to the effects of climate change. The findings also highlight the level of awareness and perception of climate change amongst the urban and rural youth of Pakistan and their willingness to adapt. This is in stark contrast to the historic perception that young people represent passive victims requiring protection and without a key role to play.

About 8,800 people aged 19 to 34 completed the survey. It comprised a wide-reaching series of questions covering five themes: climate change knowledge and vulnerability, adaptation strategies, regulatory knowledge and climate advocacy, and in addition to age, the survey also collected data on gender, location, level of education and employment. The Youth and Climate Change Perception Report is accessible here .

So what did it find?

Young people with digital access are very aware of climate change. Forty three percent had a high degree of understanding while only 10 percent were uninformed. In non-smart phone surveys these trends were reversed—30 percent had no knowledge and 10 percent had a high understanding.

Almost one in every five respondents have had to migrate because of temperature extremes and drastic changes in weather patterns. 

Feedback varied by location. Urban respondents cited financial, logistical and technological resource constraints as the primary adaptation challenges, while those in rural areas underscored a lack of knowledge on how to proceed.

The survey also sought feedback on the success of existing government initiatives. The Clean Green Pakistan Index was the most recognized, with 31 percent of the respondents having knowledge of it, followed by Ten Billion Tree Tsunami at 24 percent. Eighty four percent of respondents agreed that these initiatives had increased their climate change knowledge, and provided a blueprint for further policy initiatives. Green job creation was identified as a core issue. Investment schemes to support entrepreneurs such as the Kamyab Jawan Programme was singled out as an effective means to accelerate the country’s trajectory to sustainability.

The data collected will feed into political discourse going forward and form an essential data baseline to inform policymaking. 

Inclusion and promotion of the youth has been prioritized by the government, culminating in such initiatives such as Clean Green Pakistan and the Prime Minister’s Green Stimulus Programme. Reflecting this priority, during the launch of the survey and report, Mr. Malik Amin Aslam, Special Assistant to Prime Minister said, “Pakistan's youth carries incredible potential to ensure sustainable development. A resilient youth translates to a resilient nation, and our youth have taken initiatives that carry not only socioeconomic significance, but have an eco-friendliness facet to it as well. The incumbent government is very cognizant of this youth potential, and has made it its top priority to engage youth in its developmental interventions.”

The Ministry of Climate Change has already begun the process of incorporating the survey results into its climate planning. A climate change advocacy strategy has been designed which identifies action areas and entrepreneurial opportunities to help create more green jobs. Mass climate education campaigns and workshops will ensue in the coming months, aimed at greater awareness about climate change adaptation and mitigation amongst young people.

You can find more information on the Ministry of Climate Change here . You can find more information on UNDP’s NDC Support Programme here .

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Distributional impacts of energy transition pathways and climate change

• Economic policy

Cite this content as:

This report reviews the literature on the distributional consequences of climate change and mitigation and transition pathways. The heterogeneous levels of exposure and vulnerability to climate change across countries, regions, households, and workers hint at the significant distributional costs of inaction. Climate policies will likely trigger a reallocation from “high-polluting” sectors to “green” sectors, disproportionately affecting certain regions and low-skilled workers. Price-based policies, such as carbon taxation, show varied effects across countries: they tend to be more regressive in developed countries and more progressive in developing countries where energy affordability and energy poverty are major concerns. Non-market-based policies are often regressive and can result in equity issues. Effective climate action requires balancing distributional outcomes, ensuring political acceptability, and understanding the link between policy perceptions and support.

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Numerical and statistical analysis of auxiliary geometrical parameter effects on piano key weir discharge capacity

• Binit Kumar 1 ,  ,  , 
• Rahil Ahmad 2 ,  , 
• Manish Pandey 3 ,  , 
• Anil Kumar Gupta 4 , 
• 1. Department of Civil Engineering, Motilal Nehru National Institute of Technology Allahabad, Prayagraj
• 2. Water Resources Engineering and Management, University of Stuttgart
• 3. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, West Bengal-721302 India
• 4. International & National Cooperation, Advisory Services, Public Policy, Planning & Strategic management, National Institute of Disaster Management, New Delhi 110042 India
• Received: 11 June 2024 Revised: 06 August 2024 Accepted: 14 August 2024 Published: 03 September 2024
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Nowadays, piano key (PK) weir with an expanded crest length are often used to deal with surplus discharge in dams due to unexpected climate change effects, increasing safety. The present study deals with the numerical modelling of a group of PK weirs with auxiliary geometrical parameters to predict the flow over a PK weir using different FLOW-3D turbulence models. The numerical outcomes were compared with the experimental results to check the accuracy of the underlying FLOW-3D models. It was found that the k- 𝜀 turbulence model of FLOW-3D estimated the flow over a piano key weir more closely to the experimental results than the RNG (renormalized group) and LES (large eddy simulation) models. Statistical parameters were used to evaluate the simulated results. It was observed that the coefficient of correlation (CC) was close to one and the root mean square error (RMSE) close to zero when numerical outcomes were compared with experimental datasets. The results show that the FLOW-3D software is quite effective in estimating the flow. Therefore, the present study will help to understand the best combination of mesh, models, adaption and convergence processes in simulation and provide an insight into the numerical analysis of flow configuration over PKW by considering one of the best numerical models.

• crest length ,
• discharge coefficient ,
• labyrinth weir ,
• piano key weir

Citation: Binit Kumar, Rahil Ahmad, Manish Pandey, Anil Kumar Gupta. Numerical and statistical analysis of auxiliary geometrical parameter effects on piano key weir discharge capacity[J]. AIMS Environmental Science, 2024, 11(5): 723-740. doi: 10.3934/environsci.2024036

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• Figure 1. Geometric parameters of PK weir type-A [ 4 , 29 ]
• Figure 2. Side view of PK weir under submerged flow [ 18 ]
• Figure 3. Top view, bottom view, and isometric views of six models: (a) M A (model without auxiliary geometric parameter), (b) M AT ( M A model with triangular nose), (c) M AR ( M A model with rounded nose), (d) M AP 16 ( M A model with 16 mm) parapet wall), (e) M AP 25 ( M A model with 25 mm) parapet wall), (f) M ARP 25 ( M A model with rounded nose and 25 mm parapet wall) (all geometric parameter dimensions are in mm)
• Figure 4. Numerical modelling of experimental study: (a) laboratory arrangements by Li et al. [ 4 ] , (b) boundary conditions for FLOW-3D simulation
• Figure 5. Dimension of meshing section of PK weir for FLOW-3D simulation
• Figure 6. Simulated turbulence models and laboratory experiment results of discharge (m 3 s -1 ) versus upstream head (m) over a weir crest on the M A model, where Exp is Experimental results
• Figure 7. Numerical and experimental results of head over the weir crest (m) versus flow discharge (m 3 s -1 ) for six models: (a) M A (model without auxiliary geometric parameter), (b) M AT ( M A model with triangular nose), (c) M AR ( M A model with rounded nose), (d) M AP 16 ( M A model with 16 mm parapet wall), (e) M AP 25 ( M A model with 25 mm parapet wall), (f) M ARP 25 ( M A model with rounded nose and 25 mm parapet wall)
• Figure 8. Numerical simulation results of head over the weir crest (m) versus discharge (m 3 s -1 )
• Figure 9. Coefficient of discharge versus head over the weir crest in M A model