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67 Causal Essay Topics to Consider

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A causal essay is much like a cause-and-effect essay , but there may be a subtle difference in the minds of some instructors who use the term "causal essay" for complex topics and "cause-and-effect essay" for smaller or more straightforward papers.

However, both terms describe essentially the same type of essay and the goal of each is the same: to come up with a list of events or factors (causes) that bring about a certain outcome (effect). The key question in such an essay is, "How or why did something happen?" It is important to make a clear connection between each cause and the ultimate effect.

Potential Causes

The most common problem students face in writing the causal essay is running out of "causes" to talk about. It is helpful to sketch out an outline before you begin writing the first draft of your outline. Your essay should include a strong introduction , good transition statements , and a well-crafted conclusion.

Topics to Consider

You can use a topic from this list, or use the list as inspiration for your own idea.

• What conditions and events led to the Great Depression ?
• What prompts a change in fashion trends?
• Why do some people fear the dark?
• How did some dinosaurs leave footprints?
• What causes criminal behavior?
• What causes people to rebel against authority?
• What conditions lead to powerful hurricanes?
• What developments led to regional accents in the United States?
• Why do good students become truant?
• What causes war?
• What factors can lead to birth defects?
• How are car insurance rates determined?
• What factors can lead to obesity?
• What can cause evolution to occur?
• Why does unemployment rise?
• Why do some people develop multiple personalities?
• How does the structure of the Earth change over time?
• What factors can cause bulimia nervosa?
• What makes a marriage fail?
• What developments and conditions led to the Declaration of Independence ?
• What led to the decline of the automobile industry?
• What factors led to the decline of the Roman Empire?
• How did the Grand Canyon form?
• Why did enslavement replace indentured servitude in the American colonies ?
• How has popular music been affected by technology?
• How has racial tolerance changed over time?
• What led to the dot-com bubble burst?
• What causes the stock market to fall?
• How does scarring occur?
• How does soap work?
• What causes a surge in nationalism?
• Why do some bridges collapse?
• Why was Abraham Lincoln assassinated ?
• How did we get the various versions of the Bible?
• What factors led to unionization?
• How does a tsunami form?
• What events and factors led to women's suffrage?
• Why did electric cars fail initially?
• How do animals become extinct?
• Why are some tornadoes more destructive than others?
• What factors led to the end of feudalism?
• What led to the " Martian Panic " in the 1930s?
• How did medicine change in the 19th century?
• How does gene therapy work?
• What factors can lead to famine?
• What factors led to the rise of democratic governments in the 18th century?
• How did baseball become a national pastime in the United States?
• What was the impact of Jim Crow laws on Black citizens in the United States?
• What factors led to the growth of imperialism?
• Why did the Salem witch trials take place?
• How did Adolf Hitler come to power?
• What can cause damage to your credit?
• How did the conservationism start?
• How did World War I start?
• How do germs spread and cause illness?
• How do people lose weight?
• How does road salt prevent accidents?
• What makes some tires grip better than others?
• What makes a computer run slowly?
• How does a car work?
• How has the news industry changed over time?
• What created Beatlemania ?
• How did organized crime develop?
• What caused the obesity epidemic?
• How did grammar rules develop in the English language?
• Where do political parties come from?
• How did the Civil Rights movement begin?
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Cause and Effect Essay Outline: Types, Examples and Writing Tips

20 June, 2020

9 minutes read

Author:  Tomas White

This is a complete guide on writing cause and effect essays. Find a link to our essay sample at the end. Let's get started!

What is a Cause and Effect Essay?

A cause and effect essay is the type of paper that the author is using to analyze the causes and effects of a particular action or event. A curriculum usually includes this type of exercise to test your ability to understand the logic of certain events or actions.

If you can see the logic behind cause and effect in the world around you, you will encounter fewer problems when writing. If not, writing this kind of paper will give you the chance to improve your skillset and your brain’s ability to reason.

“Shallow men believe in luck or in circumstance. Strong men believe in cause and effect.” ― Ralph Waldo Emerson

In this article, the  Handmade Writing team will find out how to create an outline for your cause and effect essay – the key to successful essay writing.

Types of the Cause and Effect Essay

Before writing this kind of essay, you need to draft the structure. A good structure will result in a good paper, so it’s important to have a plan before you start. But remember , there’s no need to reinvent the wheel: just about every type of structure has already been formulated by someone.

If you are still unsure about the definition of an essay, you can take a look at our guide:  What is an Essay?

Generally speaking, there are three types of cause and effect essays. We usually differentiate them by the number of and relationships between the different causes and the effects. Let’s take a quick look at these three different cases:

1. Many causes, one effect

This kind of essay illustrates how different causes can lead to one effect. The idea here is to try and examine a variety of causes, preferably ones that come from different fields, and prove how they contributed to a particular effect. If you are writing about World War I, for example, mention the political, cultural, and historical factors that led to the great war.

By examining a range of fundamental causes, you will be able to demonstrate your knowledge about the topic.

Here is how to structure this type of essay:

• Introduction
• Cause #3 (and so on…)
• The effect of the causes

2. One cause, many effects

This type of cause and effect essay is constructed to show the various effects of a particular event, problem, or decision. Once again, you will have to demonstrate your comprehensive knowledge and analytical mastery of the field. There is no need to persuade the reader or present your argument . When writing this kind of essay, in-depth knowledge of the problem or event’s roots will be of great benefit. If you know why it happened, it will be much easier to write about its effects.

Here is the structure for this kind of essay:

• Effect #3 (and so on…)

3. Chain of causes and effects

This is the most challenging type. You need to maintain a chain of logic that demonstrates a sequence of actions and consequences, leading to the end of the chain. Although this is usually the most interesting kind of cause and effect essay, it can also be the most difficult to write.

Here is the outline structure:

• Effect #1 = Cause #2
• Effect #2 = Cause #3
• Effect #3 = Cause #4 (and so on…)

Cause and Effect Essay Outline Example

Let’s take a look at an example. Below, you will find an outline for the topic “The causes of obesity” (Type 1) :

As you can see, we used a blended strategy here. When writing about the ever-increasing consumption of unhealthy food, it is logical to talk about the marketing strategies that encourage people to buy fast food. If you are discussing fitness trainers, it is important to mention that people need to be checked by a doctor more often, etc.

In case you face some issues with writing your Cause and Effect essay, you can always count on our Essay Writers !

How do I start writing once I have drafted the structure?

If you start by structuring each paragraph and collecting suitable examples, the writing process will be much simpler. The final essay might not come up as a classic five paragraph essay – it all depends on the cause-effect chain and the number of statements of your essay.

In the Introduction, try to give the reader a general idea of what the cause and effect essay will contain. For an experienced reader, a thesis statement will be an indication that you know what you are writing about. It is also important to emphasize how and why this problem is relevant to modern life. If you ever need to write about the Caribbean crisis, for instance, state that the effects of the Cold War are still apparent in contemporary global politics. 

Related Post: How to write an Essay introduction | How to write a Thesis statement

In the Body, provide plenty of details about what causes led to the effects. Once again, if you have already assembled all the causes and effects with their relevant examples when writing your plan, you shouldn’t have any problems. But, there are some things to which you must pay particular attention. To begin with, try to make each paragraph the same length: it looks better visually. Then, try to avoid weak or unconvincing causes. This is a common mistake, and the reader will quickly realize that you are just trying to write enough characters to reach the required word count.

Moreover, you need to make sure that your causes are actually linked to their effects. This is particularly important when you write a “chained” cause and effect essay (type 3) . You need to be able to demonstrate that each cause was actually relevant to the final result. As I mentioned before, writing the Body without preparing a thorough and logical outline is often an omission.

The Conclusion must be a summary of the thesis statement that you proposed in the Introduction. An effective Conclusion means that you have a well-developed understanding of the subject. Notably, writing the Conclusion can be one of the most challenging parts of this kind of project. You typically write the Conclusion once you have finished the Body, but in practice, you will sometimes find that a well-written conclusion will reveal a few mistakes of logic in the body!

Cause and Effect Essay Sample

Be sure to check the sample essay, completed by our writers. Use it as an example to write your own cause and effect essay. Link: Cause and effect essay sample: Advertising ethic issues .

Tips and Common Mistakes from Our Expert Writers

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How to write a causal Analysis Essay that scores an A

It is human nature to want to understand things and what causes them. When we see, hear, or experience something we do not understand, we often try to find out the cause or the explanation either from family and friends or from the internet.

In college, you will be required occasionally to find out the causes, effects, or reasons for various phenomena via causal analysis essay assignments.

This article details everything important about causal analysis essay assignments, including the structure and the steps for writing one.

What Is a Causal Analysis Essay?

Strictly put, a causal analysis essay assignment or an academic writing task requires you to explain the cause of a specific phenomenon analytically.

Causal analysis essays are sometimes referred to as cause-and-effect essays. Because they also reveal how one thing (cause) leads to another (effect). In this respect, when writing a causal analysis essay, you first begin by stating your claim and then backing it up using arguments and supporting facts. You need to show how a specific issue correlates to an underlying problem.

For example, you can be tasked with writing about how the global COVID-19 pandemic led to the rise of e-learning. You need to explore e-learning adoption before and post the pandemic to unravel the real issues that amount as cause and the effects of these issues on e-learning adoption.

Structure of a Causal Analysis Essay

The structure of a causal analysis essay is the typical short essay structure. It is a five-paragraph structure essay with an introduction paragraph, 3 body paragraphs, and a conclusion paragraph. If you follow this structure to write your essay, as your professor expects, you will end up with an academic paper with a strong logical flow.

Find out what to include in each paragraph of your causal analysis essay in the subsection below. 

1. Introduction Paragraph

In the introduction paragraph of an essay , you introduce the topic you want to discuss in your essay. You should aim to make your introduction paragraph as interesting as possible. Failure to do so may make your paper uninteresting or boring for the reader. And you do not want this if you are aiming for an excellent grade.

In addition, make sure your introduction paragraph provides background information to make the reader understand what will be discussed. You should restrict the background information to 50 words to avoid overloading the reader with unnecessary information in your intro.

After providing background information, you should include your thesis statement or central argument. Your thesis statement is your most important statement. This is because it sets the tone or the theme for the essay. So, you should be very keen when writing it to ensure it is on point. Remember, a good thesis statement is detailed enough to leave room for argumentation.

2. Body Paragraphs

In your first body paragraph, your first sentence should be your strongest argument supporting your thesis statement. Since this is a causal analysis essay, the strongest argument will naturally be the most significant cause or effect of the phenomena described in your introduction paragraph. The first sentence should be followed by evidence or explanation, plus examples where possible. The evidence should be followed by a closing sentence that wraps everything up nicely. Ensure that you follow the basic rules of paragraphing in essay writing .

The second body paragraph should focus on the second strongest argument favoring your thesis statement. As with the first paragraph, the argument should be followed by the evidence/explanation and a closing sentence. The first sentence in the third body paragraph should state the third strongest argument in favor of your thesis statement. The rest of the paragraph should follow the structure of the other body paragraphs.

3. Conclusion

After writing a good introduction with your thesis statement and three body paragraphs, each focusing on a single cause or critical point, you must wrap up the essay with an excellent conclusion . Your conclusion should restate the thesis and the key causes in your causal analysis essay. It should also include a nice closing sentence that wraps the entire essay up.

Causal Analysis Essay Outline

Now that you know the causal analysis essay structure, it is time to discover the outline and how to create one. Knowing how to create one will help you create one and ensure your paper is well-structured and organized.

How to create a causal analysis essay outline

I. Introduction

• Hook statement (Write an interesting fact or statement about the topic)
• Background information (Highlight the background information about the topic that you will include)
• Thesis statement (State the central argument you will be discussing in your essay)

II. Body paragraph 1

• Topic sentence (State the strongest argument (the first cause) in support of your thesis)
• Evidence (Highlight the critical evidence you will use to support the argument above)
• Concluding sentence (Write the sentence you will use to close out this paragraph)

III. Body paragraph 2

• Topic sentence (State the second strongest argument (the second cause) in support of your thesis)

IV. Body paragraph 3

• Topic sentence (State the third strongest argument (the third cause) in support of your thesis)

V. Conclusion

• Restate your thesis
• Summarize your key arguments
• Closing statement (Write the sentence you will use to conclude your essay)

As you can see above, a causal analysis essay outline is similar to the standard outline for short academic papers. To create your own causal analysis essay, follow the instructions above. Just make sure your outline is as comprehensive as possible to make writing the actual easy a walk in the park.

Steps For Writing a Causal Analysis Essay

In this section, you will discover how to write an actual causal analysis essay. Let's begin.

1. Read the essay prompt carefully

 The fact that you are reading this article means you already know you need to write a causal analysis essay. You probably got this information from the essay prompt. If you did, it means you are already on the right track. You now need to read the prompt carefully again.

Read it carefully to understand the essay question or prompt entirely. Also, read it carefully to understand the essay requirements. Failure to follow the requirements in your essay assignment could be costly for you; it could result in an inferior grade.

So, the first step to writing a causal analysis essay is to read the prompt carefully to understand the question and the requirements.

2. Research the essay topic and create a thesis

After reading and understanding the essay topic, the next thing you need to do is to research the essay topic. Research is important as it will help you understand the topic better and decide how you will answer it.

When conducting research, you should note the key points related to the essay topic. The typical causal analysis essay assignment will require you to discuss the causes of a specific phenomenon. Therefore, focus on noting the key causes of the phenomenon you have been asked to write an essay on in the prompt.

Once you have researched to the extent that you fully understand the topic, you should create a thesis statement. The statement should explain what your entire essay will be focusing on. A typical thesis statement for a causal analysis essay sounds like this, 'The main causes of global poverty are conflict, climate change, and inequality.'

3. Create an outline

You should create an outline after researching your paper and creating a thesis statement. Simply follow the instructions we have provided in the section above this one to create your causal analysis essay outline. You should find it easy to create an outline for your essay since you have already created a thesis statement and you know the leading causes you will be discussing in your essay.

Make sure your outline is as comprehensive as it can be. When you create a comprehensive outline, you make your work easy. In other words, you make writing the actual essay very easy. When creating an outline, the most important things you should not forget to outline include the opening sentence, the thesis statement, the main supporting arguments, and the closing sentence.

4. Write the essay

When you are done creating an outline for your essay, you should take a short break and then embark on writing the essay following the outline as a guide. With a comprehensive outline, you shouldn't find writing your causal analysis essay challenging. You should refer to the outline for guidance when you get stuck in any part of your essay.

The best way to write the essay is sequential. Begin with the introduction, then the body paragraphs, and lastly, the conclusion. Write your essay in a simple and easy-to-understand language. And keep in mind that your goal is to make it as smooth flowing as possible.

5. Add in-text citations

Once you are done writing your causal analysis essay, you need to add the in-text citations. Don't just add them randomly. Add citations to the ideas or points that are not yours. Add in-text citations throughout your essay. This will make your work look credible. You will also get points for proper referencing if you follow the required format or style.

Of course, the only way you can have in-text citations to add to your essay in this step is if you note the source of each note you made during your research. So, indicate the source next to each note you make during research.

6. Take a break

You should take a break after writing your essay, adding in-text citations and a references page. This is very important at this juncture. Because it allows your brain to rest and forget about the essay, at least momentarily, ensure the break lasts for at least six hours. If you take such a break, you will have a fresh pair of eyes when you look at your essay in the next step.

7. Edit your essay

After taking a break, you should edit your essay. Since you took a break in the previous step, you will have a fresh pair of eyes that should make it easy to catch mistakes. Read your essay aloud to make sure you catch all the issues, errors, and mistakes. Read it slowly to make sure you do not miss anything.

After editing your essay , give it to someone to read it and identify any mistakes you might have missed. Then check the identified mistakes if they are actual mistakes and edit them out of your essay. When you complete this step, your causal analysis essay will be ready for submission.

Tips For Writing an Excellent Causal Analysis Essay

If you want to write a good causal analysis essay, follow the above steps. If you want to write an excellent causal analysis essay, incorporate the tips below when following the steps above.

• Ensure your essay is straightforward to read and understand to give your professor an easy time grading it. This will increase your chances of getting an excellent grade.
• Ensure you include a strong thesis statement at the end of your introduction paragraph. Without a strong thesis statement, your essay will be challenging to follow.
• Ensure there is no vague phrase or statement in your essay. This will make your essay stronger and more credible. It will also ensure you don't lose marks for clarity.
• Use examples generously in your essay. This will make it easier to understand. It will also make it more authentic and useful.
• Do not belabor points in your essay. Simply explain your key points clearly and concisely. Do not go round and round in circles saying the same thing in different words.
• Support any specific idea or point you include with evidence. You are just a high school or undergraduate student; nobody will take your word for all the key claims and arguments you make. So back everything important you say with evidence from credible sources.
• Do not forget to proofread your essay thoroughly. Doing this is the only way you will convert your ordinary causal analysis essay into something extraordinary.

Example Of a Causal Analysis Essay

A typical causal analysis essay will describe the causes of a problem or a phenomenon. It is a cause-and-effect essay. This section will provide an example of a causal analysis essay. We hope this short causal analysis essay example will make it easy for you to write your own causal analysis essay.

Why do teenagers use drugs, and the negative effects of using drugs? Drug use is prevalent nowadays among teenagers, especially in urban areas across the country. Most teenagers who use drugs use it because of peer pressure or as a reaction to bullying and other sorts of trauma. Drugs use among young people often results in various negative effects, including poor well-being, negative self-image, and addiction. Teenager drug use often leads to poor well-being. Various studies have shown that teenagers who use drugs often suffer from poor health and well-being. This is because the drugs they use without a prescription are dangerous and often produce unpleasant symptoms. The only way drug-using teenagers can reverse this trend is if they say no to drugs. Teenagers who use drugs often end up having a negative self-image. The negative self-image is often brought out by the secrecy surrounding drug use and the negativity associated with drug use. The negative self-image can sometimes lead to depression or even attempted suicide. The best thing about this effect of drug use is that it can be reversed through therapy or an intervention. Teenagers who use drugs usually end up getting addicted. Drug addiction is a terrible condition that forces those with it to repeatedly seek the 'high' the drugs offer. This can lead to dependence and a terrible addiction. It can also lead to the addict stealing to get money for the drugs. Despite the negative effects of addiction, it can also be eliminated. In conclusion, Drugs use among youth can lead to negative effects such as addiction, poor self-image, and poor well-being. These negative effects show that drug use can be hazardous for young people and that efforts should be made to put an end to it. Without robust efforts to put an end to drug use among youth, likely, a section of the youth will forever be lost to drugs.

Causal Analysis Topics

Choosing a good causal analysis essay topic will help ensure your essay is exciting and fun to read. Check out our causal analysis topics below to get inspiration to create your fun causal analysis essay topic.

• What are the effects of too much internet on the personalities of children?
• Why is cyberbullying such a big issue in the current world?
• What has been the positive impact of technology in the healthcare industry?
• What is the impact of technology on teaching methods?
• What are the negative effects of misinformation on the internet?
• What causes the increasing number of mass shooting incidents in the country?
• What caused the emergence of the feminist movement?
• Why is there gender bias in American politics?
• What has led to the calls for stricter gun laws in the United States?
• What led to the most recent US government shutdown?
• Why did the coronavirus pandemic have a huge negative impact on the world economy?
• What are the causes of the age-old Palestinian conflict?
• What led to the separation of the KOREA peninsula?
• Why are cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin rapidly gaining popularity?
• What has led to the recent increase in cases of cyberbullying?
• What is the cause of global warming and its impact on the world?
• What are the negative effects of water pollution?
• The biggest causes of environmental pollution
• What caused the Iranian Revolution?
• What caused the French Revolution?
• What were the biggest causes of the First World War?
• Why was Mussolini very successful in spreading fascism in Italy?
• Explain why homeschooling is gaining popularity across the world.
• What made China halt its one-child policy?
• Why do so many people still oppose the Obamacare Act?

Parting Shot!

The information presented in this article is sufficient for any college student to write an excellent causal analysis essay. So, if you have time, all you need to do is to follow the structure, the steps, and the tips presented in this article to develop the perfect causal analysis essay.

Related Reading:

• How to write a good case study
• Tips and steps for writing an excellent analytical essay
• How to know that an article is peer-reviewed.

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11 Type 3: Causal Arguments

Causal arguments.

Causal arguments attempt to make a case that one thing led to another. They answer the question “What caused it?” Causes are often complex and multiple. Before we choose a strategy for a causal argument it can help to identify our purpose. Why do we need to know the cause? How will it help us?

Purposes of causal arguments

To get a complete picture of how and why something happened.

In this case, we will want to look for multiple causes, each of which may play a different role. Some might be background conditions, others might spark the event, and others may be influences that sped up the event once it got started. In this case, we often speak of near causes that are close in time or space to the event itself, and remote causes , that are further away or further in the past. We can also describe a chain of causes , with one thing leading to the next, which leads to the next. It may even be the case that we have a feedback loop where a first event causes a second event and the second event triggers more of the first, creating an endless circle of causation. For example, as sea ice melts in the arctic, the dark water absorbs more heat, which warms it further, which melts more ice, which makes the water absorb more heat, etc. If the results are bad, this is called a vicious circle.

To decide who is responsible

Sometimes if an event has multiple causes, we may be most concerned with deciding who bears responsibility and how much. In a car accident, the driver might bear responsibility and the car manufacturer might bear some as well. We will have to argue that the responsible party caused the event but we will also have to show that there was a moral obligation not to do what the party did. That implies some degree of choice and knowledge of possible consequences. If the driver was following all good driving regulations and triggered an explosion by activating the turn signal, clearly the driver cannot be held responsible.

In order to determine that someone is responsible, there must be a clearly defined domain of responsibility for that person or entity. To convince readers that a certain party is responsible, readers have to agree on what the expectations for that party in their particular role are. For example, if a patient misreads the directions for taking a drug and accidentally overdoses, does the drug manufacturer bear any responsibility? What about the pharmacist? To decide that, we need to agree on how much responsibility the manufacturer has for making the directions foolproof and how much the pharmacist has for making sure the patient understands them. Sometimes a person can be held responsible for something they didn’t do if the action omitted fell under their domain of responsibility.

To figure out how to make something happen

In this case we need to zero in on a factor or factors that will push the event forward. Such a factor is sometimes called a precipitating cause. The success of this push will depend on circumstances being right for it, so we will likely also need to describe the conditions that have to be in place for the precipitating cause to actually precipitate the event. If there are likely factors that could block the event, we need to show that those can be eliminated. For example, if we propose a particular surgery to fix a heart problem, we will also need to show that the patient can get to a hospital that performs the surgery and get an appointment. We will certainly need to show that the patient is likely to tolerate the surgery.

To stop something from happening

In this case, we do not need to describe all possible causes. We want to find a factor that is so necessary to the bad result that if we get rid of that factor, the result cannot occur. Then if we eliminate that factor, we can block the bad result. If we cannot find a single such factor, we may at least be able to find one that will make the bad result less likely. For example, to reduce wildfire risk in California, we cannot get rid of all fire whatsoever, but we can repair power lines and aging gas and electric infrastructure to reduce the risk that defects in this system will spark a fire. Or we could try to reduce the damage fires cause by focusing on clearing underbrush.

To predict what might happen in future

As Jeanne Fahnestock and Marie Secor put it in A Rhetoric of Argument, “When you argue for a prediction, you try to convince your reader that all the causes needed to bring about an event are in place or will fall into place.” You also may need to show that nothing will intervene to block the event from happening. One common way to support a prediction is by comparing it to a past event that has already played out. For example, we might argue that humans have survived natural disasters in the past, so we will survive the effects of climate change as well. As Fahnestock and Secor point out, however, “the argument is only as good as the analogy, which sometimes must itself be supported.” How comparable are the disasters of the past to the likely effects of climate change? The argument would need to describe both past and possible future events and convince us that they are similar in severity.

Techniques and cautions for causal argument

So how does a writer make a case that one thing causes another? The briefest answer is that the writer needs to convince us that the factor and the event are correlated and also that there is some way in which the factor could plausibly lead to the event. Then the writer will need to convince us that they have done due diligence in considering and eliminating alternate possibilities for the cause and alternate explanations for any correlation between the factor and the event.

Identify possible causes

If other writers have already identified possible causes, an argument simply needs to refer back to those and add in any that have been missed. If not, the writer can put themselves in the role of detective and imagine what might have caused the event.

Determine which factor is most correlated with the event

If we think that a factor may commonly cause an event, the first question to ask is whether they go together. If we are looking for a sole cause, we can ask if the factor is always there when the event happens and always absent when the event doesn’t happen. Do the factor and the event follow the same trends? The following methods of arguing for causality were developed by philosopher John Stuart Mill, and are often referred to as “Mill’s methods.”

• If the event is repeated and every time it happens, a common factor is present, that common factor may be the cause.
• If there is a single difference between cases where the event takes place and cases where it doesn’t.
• If an event and a possible cause are repeated over and over and they happen to varying degrees, we can check whether they always increase and decrease together. This is often best done with a graph so we can visually check whether the lines follow the same pattern.
• Finally, ruling out other possible causes can support a case that the one remaining possible cause did in fact operate.

Explain how that factor could have caused the event

In order to believe that one thing caused another, we usually need to have some idea of how the first thing could cause the second. If we cannot imagine how one would cause another, why should we find it plausible? Any argument about agency , or the way in which one thing caused another, depends on assumptions about what makes things happen. If we are talking about human behavior, then we are looking for motivation: love, hate, envy, greed, desire for power, etc. If we are talking about a physical event, then we need to look at physical forces. Scientists have dedicated much research to establishing how carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could effectively trap heat and warm the planet.

If there is enough other evidence to show that one thing caused another but the way it happened is still unknown, the argument can note that and perhaps point toward further studies that would establish the mechanism. The writer may want to qualify their argument with “may” or “might” or “seems to indicate,” if they cannot explain how the supposed cause led to the effect.

Eliminate alternate explanations

The catchphrase “ correlation is not causation ” can help us to remember the dangers of the methods above. It’s usually easy to show that two things happen at the same time or in the same pattern, but hard to show that one actually causes another. Correlation can be a good reason to investigate whether something is the cause, and it can provide some evidence of causality, but it is not proof. Sometimes two unrelated things may be correlated, like the number of women in Congress and the price of milk. We can imagine that both might follow an upward trend, one because of the increasing equality of women in society and the other because of inflation. Describing a plausible agency, or way in which one thing led to another, can help show that the correlation is not random. If we find a strong correlation, we can imagine various causal arguments that would explain it and argue that the one we support has the most plausible agency.

Sometimes things vary together because there is a common cause that affects both of them. An argument can explore possible third factors that may have led to both events. For example, students who go to elite colleges tend to make more money than students who go to less elite colleges. Did the elite colleges make the difference? Or are both the college choice and the later earnings due to a third cause, such as family connections? In his book Food Rules: An Eater’s Manual, journalist Michael Pollan assesses studies on the effects of supplements like multivitamins and concludes that people who take supplements are also those who have better diet and exercise habits, and that the supplements themselves have no effect on health. He advises, “Be the kind of person who takes supplements — then skip the supplements.”

If we have two phenomena that are correlated and happen at the same time, it’s worth considering whether the second phenomenon could actually have caused the first rather than the other way around. For example, if we find that gun violence and violence within video games are both on the rise, we shouldn’t leap to blame video games for the increase in shootings. It may be that people who play video games are being influenced by violence in the games and becoming more likely to go out and shoot people in real life. But could it also be that as gun violence increases in society for other reasons, such violence is a bigger part of people’s consciousness, leading video game makers and gamers to incorporate more violence in their games? It might be that causality operates in both directions, creating a feedback loop as we discussed above.

Proving causality is tricky, and often even rigorous academic studies can do little more than suggest that causality is probable or possible. There are a host of laboratory and statistical methods for testing causality. The gold standard for an experiment to determine a cause is a double-blind, randomized control trial in which there are two groups of people randomly assigned. One group gets the drug being studied and one group gets the placebo, but neither the participants nor the researchers know which is which. This kind of study eliminates the effect of unconscious suggestion, but it is often not possible for ethical and logistical reasons.

The ins and outs of causal arguments are worth studying in a statistics course or a philosophy course, but even without such a course we can do a better job of assessing causes if we develop the habit of looking for alternate explanations.

Sample annotated causal argument

The article “Climate Explained: Why Carbon Dioxide Has Such Outsized Influence on Earth’s Climate” by Jason West, published in The Conversation , can serve as an example. Annotations point out how the author uses several causal argument strategies.  

• Sample causal essay “Climate Explained: Why Carbon Dioxide Has Such Outsized Influence on Earth’s Climate” in PDF version with margin notes
• Sample causal essay “Climate Explained: Why Carbon Dioxide Has Such Outsized Influence on Earth’s Climate” accessible version with notes in parentheses

Reflect on the following to construct a causal argument. What would be the best intervention to introduce in society to reduce the rate of violent crime? Below are some possible causes of violent crime.  Choose one and describe how it could lead to violent crime.  Then think of a way to intervene in that process to stop it.  What method from among those described in this section would you use to convince someone that your intervention would work to lower rates of violent crime?  Make up an argument using your chosen method and the kind of evidence, either anecdotal or statistical, you would find convincing.

Possible causes of violent crime:

• Homophobia and transphobia
• Testosterone
• Child abuse
• Violence in the media
• Role models who exhibit toxic masculinity
• Violent video games
• Systemic racism
• Lack of education on expressing emotions
• Unemployment
• Not enough law enforcement
• Economic inequality
• The availability of guns

Screen-Reader Accessible Annotated Causal Argument

Format note: This version is accessible to screen reader users.  Refer to these  tips for reading our annotated sample arguments with a screen reader . For a more traditional visual format, see the PDF version of “Climate Explained: Why Carbon Dioxide Has Such Outsized Influence on Earth’s Climate” above.

From The Conversation

September 13, 2019

Climate Explained: Why Carbon Dioxide Has Such Outsized Influence on Earth’s Climate

(Note: The title frames the article as a causal argument, a demonstration of how carbon dioxide affects the climate.)

Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.

I heard that carbon dioxide makes up 0.04% of the world’s atmosphere. Not 0.4% or 4%, but 0.04%! How can it be so important in global warming if it’s such a small percentage?

I am often asked how carbon dioxide can have an important effect on global climate when its concentration is so small – just 0.041% of Earth’s atmosphere. And human activities are responsible for just 32% of that amount. (Note: Jason West presents his article as a rebuttal to a counterargument.)

I study the importance of atmospheric gases for air pollution and climate change. (Note: West establishes his credibility as a researcher on the subject.) The key to carbon dioxide’s strong influence on climate is its ability to absorb heat emitted from our planet’s surface, keeping it from escaping out to space. (Note: West summarizes his causal argument by explaining a mechanism that could account for CO2’s surprising effect on temperature.)

Early greenhouse science

The scientists who first identified carbon dioxide’s importance for climate in the 1850s were also surprised by its influence. (Note: This bit of history underlines West’s sympathy for the surprise expressed in the opening question.) Working separately, John Tyndall in England and Eunice Foote in the United States found that carbon dioxide, water vapor and methane all absorbed heat, while more abundant gases did not.

Scientists had already calculated that the Earth was about 59 degrees Fahrenheit (33 degrees Celsius) warmer than it should be, given the amount of sunlight reaching its surface. The best explanation for that discrepancy was that the atmosphere retained heat to warm the planet.

Tyndall and Foote showed that nitrogen and oxygen, which together account for 99% of the atmosphere, had essentially no influence on Earth’s temperature because they did not absorb heat. (Note: West shows how scientists eliminated what seemed like likely causes for the warming effect.) Rather, they found that gases present in much smaller concentrations were entirely responsible for maintaining temperatures that made the Earth habitable, by trapping heat to create a natural greenhouse effect.

A blanket in the atmosphere

(Note: Comparing heat-trapping gases to a blanket helps readers visualize the causal argument.)

Earth constantly receives energy from the sun and radiates it back into space. For the planet’s temperature to remain constant, the net heat it receives from the sun must be balanced by outgoing heat that it gives off. (Note: West gives background on what influences the earth’s temperature.)

Since the sun is hot, it gives off energy in the form of shortwave radiation at mainly ultraviolet and visible wavelengths. Earth is much cooler, so it emits heat as infrared radiation, which has longer wavelengths.

Figure 2: The electromagnetic spectrum is the range of all types of EM radiation – energy that travels and spreads out as it goes. The sun is much hotter than the Earth, so it emits radiation at a higher energy level, which has a shorter wavelength. NASA

Carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases have molecular structures that enable them to absorb infrared radiation. The bonds between atoms in a molecule can vibrate in particular ways, like the pitch of a piano string. When the energy of a photon corresponds to the frequency of the molecule, it is absorbed and its energy transfers to the molecule. (Note: This section establishes agency, an explanation for how CO2 could trap heat.)

Carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases have three or more atoms and frequencies that correspond to infrared radiation emitted by Earth. Oxygen and nitrogen, with just two atoms in their molecules, do not absorb infrared radiation.  (Note: West explains why two other possible causes of warming, oxygen and nitrogen, do not trap heat.)

Most incoming shortwave radiation from the sun passes through the atmosphere without being absorbed. But most outgoing infrared radiation is absorbed by heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere. Then they can release, or re-radiate, that heat. Some returns to Earth’s surface, keeping it warmer than it would be otherwise.

Figure 3: Earth receives solar energy from the sun (yellow), and returns energy back to space by reflecting some incoming light and radiating heat (red). Greenhouse gases trap some of that heat and return it to the planet’s surface. NASA via Wikimedia. (Note: Figure 3, with the rightmost red stripe pointing back to earth, makes a visual argument that greenhouse gases trap heat.)

Research on heat transmission

During the Cold War, the absorption of infrared radiation by many different gases was studied extensively. The work was led by the U.S. Air Force, which was developing heat-seeking missiles and needed to understand how to detect heat passing through air.

This research enabled scientists to understand the climate and atmospheric composition of all planets in the solar system by observing their infrared signatures. For example, Venus is about 870 F (470 C) because its thick atmosphere is 96.5% carbon dioxide. (Note: The comparison to Venus shows that a high concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere correlates with high temperature on another planet.)

It also informed weather forecast and climate models, allowing them to quantify how much infrared radiation is retained in the atmosphere and returned to Earth’s surface.

People sometimes ask me why carbon dioxide is important for climate, given that water vapor absorbs more infrared radiation and the two gases absorb at several of the same wavelengths. The reason is that Earth’s upper atmosphere controls the radiation that escapes to space. The upper atmosphere is much less dense and contains much less water vapor than near the ground, which means that adding more carbon dioxide significantly influences how much infrared radiation escapes to space. (Note: In this paragraph, West eliminates another possible driver of climate change, heat-trapping water vapor.)

Carbon dioxide levels rise and fall around the world, changing seasonally with plant growth and decay.

Observing the greenhouse effect

Have you ever noticed that deserts are often colder at night than forests, even if their average temperatures are the same? Without much water vapor in the atmosphere over deserts, the radiation they give off escapes readily to space. In more humid regions radiation from the surface is trapped by water vapor in the air. Similarly, cloudy nights tend to be warmer than clear nights because more water vapor is present.

The influence of carbon dioxide can be seen in past changes in climate. Ice cores from over the past million years have shown that carbon dioxide concentrations were high during warm periods – about 0.028%. During ice ages, when the Earth was roughly 7 to 13 F (4-7 C) cooler than in the 20th century, carbon dioxide made up only about 0.018% of the atmosphere. (Note: West gives more evidence from Earth’s history to show a correlation between high carbon dioxide concentration and higher temperatures.)

Even though water vapor is more important for the natural greenhouse effect, changes in carbon dioxide have driven past temperature changes. In contrast, water vapor levels in the atmosphere respond to temperature. As Earth becomes warmer, its atmosphere can hold more water vapor, which amplifies the initial warming in a process called the “water vapor feedback.” (Note: West describes a feedback loop or vicious circle where warming leads to more warming.) Variations in carbon dioxide have therefore been the controlling influence on past climate changes.

Small change, big effects

It shouldn’t be surprising that a small amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can have a big effect. We take pills that are a tiny fraction of our body mass and expect them to affect us. (Note: West supports his causal claim by making a comparison to something more familiar, pills.)

Today the level of carbon dioxide is higher than at any time in human history. Scientists widely agree that Earth’s average surface temperature has already increased by about 2 F (1 C) since the 1880s, and that human-caused increases in carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases are extremely likely to be responsible. (Note: West points to a correlation between CO2 and temperature. Here he relies on experts to support the idea of causation.)

Without action to control emissions, carbon dioxide might reach 0.1% of the atmosphere by 2100, more than triple the level before the Industrial Revolution. This would be a faster change than transitions in Earth’s past that had huge consequences. Without action, this little sliver of the atmosphere will cause big problems. (Note: West ends with a brief prediction. He compares the potential rise in carbon dioxide with past changes to imply that the consequences of human-induced climate change will be more dramatic than in the past.)

Attribution

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons CC BY-ND 4.0 license. Annotations are by Anna Mills and licensed CC BY-NC 4.0 .

Chapter Attribution

This chapter is from “Forming a Research-Based Argument” in in How Arguments Work: A Guide to Writing and Analyzing Texts in College by Anna Mills under a CC BY-NC 4.0 license.

Upping Your Argument and Research Game Copyright © 2022 by Liona Burnham is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License , except where otherwise noted.

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