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Understanding the Terrorist Mind

Editor’s note:.

While early research focused on the political roots of terrorism, many of today’s investigators are probing the psychological factors that drive adherents to commit their deadly deeds. Are terrorists mentally ill or do they rationally weigh the costs and benefits of their actions and conclude that terrorism is profitable? Our author traces recent advances in using imaging and experimental research to determine what motivates monstrous acts .

In the past 15 years, dramatic acts of terror have been committed against citizens of many countries. A reasonable first step towards addressing such violence is understanding where it comes from—what motivates people to join terror organizations and engage in terrorism. Recent work in experimental psychology and cognitive neuroscience provides some perspective on the mind of a terrorist.

First, it is useful to define what we mean by ‘terrorism.’ When Americans and Europeans think of terrorists, they likely imagine Muslim extremists. For example, Google searches for the term ‘terrorist’ in the month after the Boston Marathon bombings and Paris attacks (committed by Muslim extremists) increased three-fold and six-fold, respectively, relative to the months prior to the attacks. By contrast, similarly deadly attacks by Anders Breivik in Norway, who killed 69 children, and Dylann Roof, who killed nine black parishioners in the American south, were not followed by an increase in such searches. In fact, compared to the three months leading up to it, there was a slight decrease in searches using the term ‘terrorist’ after the Breivik attack.

Although it may be comforting to think of terrorists as people unlike us, I will argue that this belief belies an uncomfortable reality: that the psychological processes that drive an individual to engage in terrorism are deeply human, common across cultures—and traits that likely reside in us all.

The definition of terrorism that I use here will include a two key elements. First, it involves a group ideology. Individuals may attack, threaten, terrorize or kill others, but if they are not part of a group and not motivated to do so by an ideology, then by this definition they are not terrorists. Even a violent group, such as a drug cartel that beheads civilians, would not be considered a terrorist organization, since its members are not ideologically motivated (note, however, that many of the processes that I describe below also apply to gangs). Second, terrorism is defined by the use of violence in the service of the group’s ideology, and particularly violence that indiscriminately targets members of a group (e.g., civilians, children). Many governments would challenge this point, as they have convicted non-violent Native and environmental activists who sabotage logging equipment under anti-terrorism laws. However, I do not consider these groups to be composed of ‘terrorists’ (but again, many of the processes described below still apply).

In the context of this definition, I will try to offer some insight into the mind of a terrorist by looking at what lies in the human mind more generally. Specifically, I will seek to explain why and how individuals support or engage in ‘indiscriminate violence driven by group ideologies’ by looking at our understanding of three processes: (1) how our brains respond to groups, (2) how our brains are led to condone or initiate acts of indiscriminate violence, and (3) how our brains process ideological information.

Social Factors

For most of the millions of years that our species has been around, humans have eked out an existence only through the coordinated effort of small, cohesive coalitions. Evolution has therefore shaped within us a deep desire to belong to groups. In modern times, social belonging remains a major psychological need, which we fill by connecting with others through a variety of ‘social identities’–Californian, professor, rugby player, progressive, vegetarian, for example. We each contain multitudes. The tendency to connect through one of these multitudes can be reflexive (“Oh wow, you’re from California, too?”).

From this perspective, the appeal of ‘terrorist groups’ is completely unremarkable. Just as a fraternity, team, club, military unit, or gang can provide a deep social connection with others, so too can ISIS, Al-Qaeda, or white, nationalist groups. Many think that people join groups for what they do (terrorists join terror groups because they are violent people; men join fraternities because they drink and party), but the deep, fundamental motivation to join any group is the need to socially connect. From this view, individuals most at risk for joining a terrorist group are not those who are poor or violent, but those who are alienated and thus drawn to an arrangement that can offer the camaraderie, brotherhood, and purpose that they are missing. This may help explain why very different demographics—the young man at a refugee camp who is deprived of regional, professional, and academic identities, and the middle-class child of immigrants in a Western country who feels alienated from his or her host country—are common recruits for ISIS. And perhaps other groups. It may also explain why regular attendance at a mosque—which provides a strong social identity—is inversely correlated with ISIS enrollment.

Although social identities can in themselves provide clear paths to bring individuals together, the brain seems particularly prone not only to creating an ‘us,’ but also readily defining a ‘them.’ A classic study that demonstrated the ease with which group identities arise came from a team of experimental psychologists in the 1950s, led by Muzafer Sherif. In the study, the researchers aimed to generate and dissipate group conflict in a set of middle class white boys who attended a camp set up by the researchers at a park in Oklahoma. The plan was to separate the boys into two groups and then organize a series of activities to establish competitive group identities. In fact, the participants pre-empted the researchers’ strategy: the boys caught wind of each other, and immediately formed their own group identities (the ‘Eagles’ and the ‘Rattlers’) and started competing on their own—staking territory, raiding cabins, and picking fights. The silver lining of the study came when the researchers demonstrated how readily they could undo the group distinctions that they had facilitated. By orchestrating a series of threats to the entire camp (a ‘broken’ well, a stuck van) that could only be solved by working together, the stark distinctions between Eagles and Rattlers began to fade as they all adopted the overarching identity of ‘campers.’

Inspired in part by the Sherif study, a host of experimental studies have demonstrated the ease with which people start thinking in terms of ‘us’ and ‘them,’ and the consequences of such distinctions. 1 For example, this research has found in controlled lab environments that people assigned to groups based on arbitrary distinctions (e.g. whether they are ‘underestimators’ or ‘overestimators’ of the number of dots on a screen) perceive members of their group to be more intelligent, trustworthy, and attractive than those from the other group. Even if people are explicitly told that the groups are arbitrarily assigned, their minds lead them to assign in-group members higher value than outgroup members.

The Impact of Imaging

With the advent of neuroimaging, we have begun to access the inner workings of some of these group-based processes. This has been particularly important, since the mental events associated with ‘us’ versus ‘them’ thinking are likely unconscious, and therefore difficult to assess through self-report. For example, a number of research groups have demonstrated an ‘out-group race face’ bias in a brain: when white participants see pictures of black versus white faces, they register more activity in the amygdala, a brain region that drives fear learning. 2 Since the amount of neural bias is unassociated with explicit anti-black attitudes, this has been taken as evidence that when confronted with a black American, white Americans experience an automatic fear response that they are unaware of and do not necessarily condone. 3

A particularly interesting iteration of this in-group/out-group face bias illustrates the malleability of in-group/out-group distinctions: Jay van Bavel and colleagues showed that the bias in amygdala activity among White participants was also present more towards an arbitrarily defined outgroup versus the arbitrarily defined in-group, even if the groups were mixed-race. 4 That is, among white Americans, there was more activity in the amygdala when viewing black versus white faces, but when the same faces were assigned to mixed-race teams, the amygdala now responded more strongly to faces from the ‘out-group’ than they did to faces from the ‘in-group,’ regardless of race. We not only have a tendency to generate ‘us’ and ‘them’, but who qualifies for each can be completely flexible, and race/skin color is just one of many arbitrary dimensions over which people can be categorized.

A study published just recently examined the neural basis of another psychological process that has been shown to be distributed parochially: trust. Here, Zaki and colleagues had participants play trust-based economic investment games with in-group and out-group members—in this case, own or rival school members. 5 They found that trusting in-group members resulted in more activity in brain regions associated with pleasure, while trusting outgroup members resulted in more activity in brain regions normally associated with cognitive effort (e.g., consciously withholding a response that you desperately want to give, or re-assessing a situation). The implication here is that in-group trust comes easy, while out-group trust comes only with effort.

Together, such psychology and imaging studies give us some insight into our genetic legacy. We have inherited brains that are inherently sensitive to group affiliation. We find meaning in our lives through social identities, and we experience comfort with those who share these identities. However, when creating an ‘us,’ the brain seems to seek out a ‘them,’ bringing online a series of psychological processes—including fear and distrust—which colors our view of outgroup members.

Although this schematic helps to illuminate some of the underlying dynamics that may drive people to join a terror, ISIS and groups like it are not merely fraternities or clubs. Terror groups also have an explicit ideology, and membership carries with it a tacit willingness to kill civilians. What neural and psychological processes help us understand the willingness to attach to ideologies, and to condone violence?

The Brain on Ideology

One of the most striking characteristics of terrorist groups is their strict adherence to an ideology. Ideologies provide a narrative structure with which to interpret new information and past events. Since terror groups (without exception, I believe) are composed of an aggrieved minority, their ideology is often centered around a narrative of victimhood.

Such narratives seem particularly powerful; especially, perhaps, for parochial altruists—people who love their own group so much that they are willing to die on its behalf. If you perceive that your group’s back is against the wall, this might be just the thing to motivate a parochial altruist to act on their behalf. 6 Perhaps this is why we see the narrative of victimhood even among some of the most powerful groups in the world. For example, note that the ‘don’t tread on me’ American flag is still widely visible in the US. In fact, groups often compete with each other for who is the aggrieved victim in a conflict (i.e., ‘competitive victimhood’), which buys them more third-party support, but also may motivate their members to action. 7

Whether about victimhood or not, ideologies are incredibly persistent. Part of what gives them their momentum is a set of cognitive filters that help process incoming information to support and enhance the in-group’s ideological narrative. For example, confirmation bias describes the tendency to uncritically accept information that confirms their group’s beliefs, and scrutinize anything that runs counter to their ideological leaning. Certainly, anyone who has paid any attention to the current US election cycle has seen this at play. Another critical bias concerns the way that we construe the deviant actions of others. If I find myself doing something wrong (e.g., cutting late into a merging lane), it is easy for me to justify this by external circumstances (e.g., “I was late for an important meeting”). But when I see others doing the same, I tend to attribute this to their internal characteristics (e.g., “they are selfish jerks”). As was famously expressed by the comedian George Carlin, “Have you ever noticed that anybody driving slower than you is a moron, and everybody driving faster than you is a maniac?” The inter-group context only magnifies this process— their violence reflects ‘who they are’ (barbarians, colonizers, terrorists), whereas our violence is shrouded in circumstance (“we had to kill them because…”).

The neural infrastructure built up around maintaining ideological righteousness is immense. Dozens of distinct biases have been identified, named, and characterized. 8 And since these processes occur automatically, in regions of our brain that are generally inaccessible to conscious introspection, we are subject to their effects whether we like it or not. We are, as the great psychologist Lee Ross said, “naïve realists” who believe that we alone see the world objectively, whereas those who disagree with us are inherently irrational. This ‘bias blind spot’ is again not owned by some groups and not others—they are part of a consequence of having a human brain that is designed to operate efficiently.

The Brain on Violence

Finally, a hallmark of terrorism, in my definition, is indiscriminate violence against members of the ‘out-group.’ Inter-group violence is by no means limited to terrorist groups: established governments and nation states have been responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people over the past decade. How different is ‘their’ violence from ‘ours’?

Our brains are shaped with the capability to care deeply, but also to kill. This deep ambivalence is potentially problematic. A society filled with people who are inherently very compassionate and very violent might prove unstable. Part of evolution’s solution to this problem seems to have been to tether the processes that undergird pro-sociality (e.g., empathy) and the processes that enable violence (e.g., dehumanization) to in-group and out-group distinctions. In this way, people would be potentiated to love the in-group and hate the outgroup; to fight and die on behalf of ‘us’ and to be willing to kill ‘them.’ The psychological processes that drive deep altruism (for the in-group) and motivate extreme violence (towards the outgroup) still live within us.

In the US, we fight others by proxy with our professional militaries, and so we are rarely put in a situation that would involve directly harming out-group members. But the willingness to harm others can still be assessed among non-military citizens of western democracies. Since experimental evidence is scant from actual members of terror groups, I will provide the evidence for group-based violence from ‘us’ – members of mostly majority groups that have the potential to act violently on our behalf. I will argue that these processes are similar to those acting in terrorists who actually pull the trigger.

So what drives someone to commit political violence (ideologically motivated violence), more generally? I find it useful to think of the psychology of political violence as a collection of impulses within us that tug us either towards or away from violence. If the various pulls towards violence are strong enough and the pulls away from it weak enough, a person engages in political violence; if not, they don’t. Below is a brief outline of work I’ve done to illuminate two of the processes contributing to this psychological calculus: empathy and dehumanization.

The Empathy Factor

We are accustomed to thinking of empathy as an unambiguous force for social good. And for sound reasons–empathy is a “social glue” that arguably has been fundamental in enabling large groups of unrelated humans to band together in complex, cooperative societies. Although good experimental evidence shows that the amount of empathy one possesses (i.e., trait empathy) or expresses (i.e., state empathy) can drive altruism, there is also reason to believe that empathy may not be as unambiguously pro-social in inter-group contexts. 9 , 10 Specifically, whereas empathy for an outgroup likely motivates pro-sociality towards its members, in-group empathy may have the opposite effect: if people feel the suffering of in-group members particularly acutely, this may motivate them to act against members of an out-group that they see as responsible.

In experimental research, I have tested the effects of in-group empathy and out-group empathy (and the difference between the two, i.e., ‘parochial empathy’) in three contexts: Americans regarding Arabs, Greeks regarding Germans (during the Greek financial crisis), and Hungarians regarding Muslim refugees (during the refugee crisis). Predictably, in all of these settings, the more empathy participants reported feeling for the suffering of random outgroup members, the greater their willingness to help and the less their willingness to harm needy members of that group (e.g., donations to civilian victims of drone strikes). However, empathy for in-group suffering predicted the opposite: less willingness to help the outgroup and more willingness to harm. In fact, this is the conclusion drawn by a number of researchers who have interviewed attempted suicide bombers or families of people who had engaged in suicide bombings. Although some who commit political violence appear to be unhampered by empathy, the majority tend to be characterized by a strong communal focus that includes compassion and caring for others. 11

Empathy therefore contributes two ropes to the internal tug-of-war: the greater the pull from in-group empathy to harm the out-group, and the weaker the pull from out-group empathy to prevent this, the stronger the overall motivation to engage in or condone intergroup aggression. It is therefore the difference in empathy, rather than the capacity for empathy, that best predicts intergroup violence.

The Dehumanization Factor

Historically, dehumanization has accompanied some of the darkest chapters in human history. During colonization, slavery, genocide, and war, depictions of the other side as uncivilized brutes or animals has been commonplace. We see this type of dehumanizing rhetoric from terror groups today—not only are we, the ‘infidels,’ referred to as ‘pigs’ or ‘dogs,’ but we are viewed as undifferentiated and therefore collectively responsible. The rhetoric in western democracies about disliked Muslim groups and terrorists is nearly identical: Iranians, Hamas and ISIS have been depicted in the mainstream media as rats, beasts, snakes or vermin in need of extermination.

In recent work, I have attempted to go beyond current psychological trends that use subtle measures of ‘everyday dehumanization’ to capture overt expressions of dehumanization that were typical of colonial times and still seem present today. Toward this end, we developed a measure that captures blatant dehumanization using the popular ‘Ascent of Man’ diagram, which depicts evolutionary ‘progress’ with five images, from a quadrupedal early human ancestor through fully upright ‘modern man.’ By asking people to indicate where on the image certain groups fall, we have been able to assess levels of perceived ‘humanity’ among a range of participant groups, towards a host of targets. 12

To our academic delight (and personal dismay), we have found that people from every country we have assayed (the US., England, Denmark, the Netherlands, Spain, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan, and the state of Palestine) rate at least one other group to be at least 15 points lower on the 100-point Ascent dehumanization scale than their own.

At the individual level, ratings of Ascent dehumanization are highly consequential. In Europe, for example, the degree to which people dehumanize Muslim refugees predicts their support for anti-refugee policies and resistance to refugee settlement, even when accounting for conservatism and prejudice. 13 In the US, levels of Ascent dehumanization are associated with positions on a range of socially relevant issues, including willingness to sign petitions opposing the Iranian Nuclear Accord. In a recent study inspired by anti-Muslim rhetoric from the Presidential campaign, we found that the dehumanization of Muslims was strongly associated with the willingness to punish all Muslims for individual acts of terrorism. 14

What’s more, the consequences of dehumanization go beyond how they motivate members of the dehumanizing group – they also affect the dehumanized. Specifically, we found that the more dehumanized Muslim Americans feel , the more likely they are to dehumanize Americans, which leads to greater support for violent forms of collective action (i.e., ‘by any means necessary)’, and less willingness to report suspicious activity in their communities to the FBI. 15 Making others feel dehumanized therefore puts us all at greater risk of that group allowing violence to happen, which could be interepreted by the dehumanizing group to justify (and compound) their dehumanization. Of course, the interaction between meta-dehumanization, dehumanization and support for violence can easily ratchet up intergroup conflicts.

Thus, if dehumanization cuts a psychological thread that normally inhibits intergroup aggression, ‘meta-dehumanization’ can provide the scissors. It is certainly not much of a stretch to imagine that terrorists think that they are dehumanized by westerners. In fact, gien the prevalence of dehumanizing depictions and language used to describe terrorists, it would be shocking if they did not.

Pondering the Future

While we like to think of ‘terrorists’ as sociopaths and misfits distinct from ‘us’ and united with each other by shared pathology and unfettered hatred, in fact their most salient characteristics—fervent attachment to a group ideology and a willingness to engage in indiscriminate violence—are likely driven by deep psychological processes shaped in the human mind through evolution. The great irony, then, may be that the best way to understand the mind of a terrorist is by examining our own.

Much of how we view terrorists is built upon a series of assumptions. Primary among these is that ‘they started it.’ Afghanistan and Iraq were a response to 9/11. But from terror groups’ perspective, they are the aggrieved party and it is the other side that started it. An insightful observation recently came from a special-forces lieutenant who related overhearing some of his men talking about the Taliban they were fighting in Afghanistan. Referring to the classic patriotic film Red Dawn , where a group of rural Americans fight off the invading Russian army, one of the American soldiers said to the other: “If this is Red Dawn , we’re the Russians.” If we accept that they are right and we attacked them first (even if only in their own minds), then how differently do we imagine we would behave in their situation?

The insightful comments from the soldiers quoted above notwithstanding, the reality is that we are using stone age psychology to solve 21 st century conflicts. But there is hope. As much as evolution has baked into the human brain psychological processes that lead us stumbling into conflict, that same brain is endowed with an overriding organizational principle: flexibility. As powerful as these destructive unconscious forces may be, we are built to be able to gain conscious control of them. For example, our recent work has shown that if people are made aware of the hypocrisy of holding Muslims as a group responsible for terror attacks without considering white people similarly responsible for violence committed by white supremacists, their collective blame of Muslims dramatically decreases, which then ameliorates their endorsement of violence against Muslims. 16 Determining which of the unconscious biases that underlie our ideological certainty can be inoculated against is one step towards mastering the destructive tendencies in our own minds.

One of the great gifts that science has given to humanity over the last 2000 years is humility. The Earth is not the center of the universe. Our DNA is not fundamentally different from that of other living things. And our brains do not differ markedly from those of feared of hated others. The great hope from the neuroscience revolution is that awareness of our own brains may actually allow us to transcend the unconscious processes that drive us to conflict.

Emile Bruneau , Ph.D., is a researcher and lecturer at the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Pennsylvania. Prior to his formal training in neuroscience, Bruneau worked, traveled, and lived in a number of conflict regions: South Africa during the transition from Apartheid to Democracy, Sri Lanka during one of the largest Tamil Tiger strikes in that nation’s history, Ireland during “The Troubles,” and Israel/Palestine around the Second Intifada. Bruneau is now working to bring the tools of science to bear on the problem of intergroup conflict by characterizing the (often unconscious) cognitive biases that drive conflict, and critically evaluating efforts aimed at transcending these biases. In 2015, he received a Bok Center Award for teaching at Harvard, and was honored with the Ed Cairns Early Career Award in Peace Psychology. His work has received funding from the UN, US Institute for Peace, Soros Foundation, DARPA, ONR, and DRAPER Laboratories. Bruneau received his doctorate from the University of Michigan.

Psychology of terrorism: Introduction to the special issue

Affiliation.

• 1 Georgia State University.
• PMID: 28383973
• DOI: 10.1037/amp0000148

Despite the extraordinary social and political consequences often associated with terrorist violence, as well as our responses to it, psychological research on terrorist behavior is conspicuously underdeveloped. This special issue of American Psychologist presents a series of articles that showcase new conceptual, theoretical, and empirical advances in our understanding of terrorism. In doing so, it seeks to not merely summarize recent accomplishments, but to highlight the immense value of explicitly psychological research on these issues, far more of which is called for to realize the potential for informing solutions. (PsycINFO Database Record

(c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Publication types

• Introductory Journal Article
• Terrorism / psychology*

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Psychology of Terrorism

Calvin Professor of Psychology, Pacific School of Psychology and Consulting Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences

William McInnes Distinguished Professor of Psychology

Associate Director, Stanford Center for Interdisciplinary Policy, Research and Education on Terrorism; Professor of Psychology and Director of Training, PCSP-Stanford Psy.D. Consortium

Professor of Psychology

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The past decade has witnessed a dramatic transformation in the nature and use of political terrorism. Psychology of Terrorism is an indispensable resource in the field of psychology and terrorism. Given the relative newness of the discipline, there is a great need for a text that covers relevant aspects of psychology related to terrorism. This online resource presents the newest findings on treatment and clinical response protocols. Other topics included the theory and history of terrorism, types and effects of weapons of mass destruction or disruption, the role of nation, state, and local agencies and volunteer groups responding to terrorist threat, military response, psychological consequences of terrorism, special populations, prevention, training, and research. This guide fills the need for a single, comprehensive resource for mental health clinicians, medical care providers, researchers, educators, and others who respond to acts of terrorism.

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Kruglanski & Fishman (2006) The Psychology of Terrorism- "Syndrome" versus "Tool" Perspectives

Related Papers

arie kruglanski

Luis De la corte

Research approaches leading to the understanding of the terrorist phenomenon are suggested. Seven principles explaining terrorism are analysed from a psychosocial approach: They could complete the explanations of terrorism focused in socio-structural and psychological variables, the latter being insufficient and often erroneous. Thus, terrorism is presented as a strategy of political influence, and the psychological attributes of terrorists are explained as the result of several influential social processes. We considered that terrorist attacks and campaigns correspond to strategic reasons, but we also assume that the rationality of the terrorists perspective is limited. As far as the organisational parameters are concerned, we propose an analogy with ordinary social movements, especially relating to their ideological frameworks of legitimisation and resource mobilization processes.

Myths, Reality and Ways Forward

Dipak Gupta

Sebastian Wojciechowski

Dr RUKUNDO Levi, PhD

Ami Pedahzur

A conceptual framework is presented for addressing psychological issues in the development of the terrorist. In particular, the authors suggest that viewing terror- ism as a process may lead not only to better conceptual development in analyses of the terrorist, but may also lead to the development of more practical and efficient counterterrorism initiatives. Additionally, viewing terrorism in this way may finally lead to the formation of a clear and unambiguous position for psychology within an interdisciplinary approach to analyses of both terrorism and the terrorist.

Studies in Conflict & Terrorism

Alice LoCicero

Randy Borum

This report analyzes and synthesizes what has been reported from the scientific and professional literature about the psychology of terrorism. By attempting to identify, describe, and evaluate what contribution psychological theory or research may have made to understanding terrorists and terrorism. One of the gravest threats to the national security environment is without question, terrorism. In order to better understand the causes, motivations, and determinants of terrorist behavior, this report identifies and analyzes the scientific and professional social science literature pertaining to the psychological and/or behavioral dimensions of terrorist behavior. The objective is to explore what questions pertaining to terrorist groups and behavior had been asked by social science researchers, to identify the main findings from that research, and attempt to distill and summarize them within a framework of operationally relevant questions. Highlights of key findings on the psychology of terrorism include: (1) people become terrorists in different ways, in different roles, and for different reasons; (2) mental illness is not a critical factor in explaining terrorist behaviors and most terrorists are not psychopaths; (3) histories of childhood abuse and trauma and themes of perceived injustice and humiliation often are prominent in terrorist biographies, but do not help to explain terrorism; (4) not all extremist ideologies promote violence, nor are all extremists violent; (5) terrorist groups have certain internal and external vulnerabilities to their existence; (6) little research has been conducted on terrorist recruitment; (7) effective leaders of terrorist organizations must be able to maintain a collective belief system, establish and maintain organizational routines, control the flow of communication, deflect conflict to external targets, manipulate incentives for followers, and keep action going; and (8) research on the psychology of terrorism largely lacks substance and rigor. References

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Impact of terrorism on child sex at birth: evidence from Pakistan

• Published: 14 May 2024

Cite this article

• Khusrav Gaibulloev 1 ,
• Gerel Oyun 2 &
• Javed Younas   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-2032-2448 1  

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Using insights from the literature on psychology and medicine, we examine the impact of stress induced by terrorism on child sex at birth. The psychological and social stressors associated with terrorist events prior to conception may trigger changes in parental hormones that have an implication for birth outcomes. We extract data on 11,331 live births conceived between 2007 and 2012 from Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey 2012–2013 and match these data with household information, monthly terrorist incidents at home district, and other district-level characteristics. Our analysis shows that parental exposure to terrorism prior to conception reduces the likelihood of a male birth. We examine the birth outcome of siblings by exploiting the variation in exposure to terrorism across pregnancies for a given mother and confirm our finding. The results provide microeconomic evidence of the potential long-term impact of terrorism on population dynamics and development.

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Lee ( 2014 ) finds that cohort of children born to mothers exposed to the trauma caused by the Korean War (1950–1953) had much worse levels of health, education, and labor market outcomes during their lifetime. Interestingly, women's health outcomes were unaffected by the war, whereas men born in the 1950 saw higher rates of disability and mortality at older ages.

Valente ( 2015 ) focuses on exposure to conflict. She does not find a statistically significant relationship between conflict and the neonatal mortality or child size at birth.

Studies on the Mexican Drug Wars (Brown 2018 ) and homicides in Brazil (Koppensteiner and Manacorda 2016 ) reveal that in-utero exposure to these disturbances in the residence areas of mothers leads to a substantial decrease in the birthweight of newborn. Employing heterogeneous analysis, both studies find that the low birthweight effect is more prominent in children of mothers with low levels of education. This implies that violence exacerbates the disadvantage that these children experience as a result of the lower socioeconomic status of their households.

This body of literature is large (e.g., Abadie and Gardeazabal 2003 , 2008 ; Arce 2018 ; Bandyopadhyay, Sandler, and Younas 2018 , 2014 ; Chesney, Reshetar, and Karaman 2011 ; Drakos and Kutan 2003 , Gaibulloev and Sandler 2008 , 2009 , 2011 ; Gaibulloev, Sandler, and Sul 2014 , Younas 2015 ). See Gaibulloev and Sandler ( 2019 ) for a recent comprehensive review of terrorism literature.

Sen ( 1990 ) provides a shocking analysis that fomented a large body of research on gender bias against women. He pointed out that 100 million missing girls should have been born, but they simply never existed likely due to the strong preference for boys and abortion of female fetuses.

Evidence from the great East Japan earthquake of 2011 shows that stress may increase the rate of male fetal losses in utero and also reduce the odds of male conception (Catalano, Yorifuji and Kawachi 2013 ).

Primary sex ratio refers to the ratio of males to females at the time of conception, when the sperm fertilizes the egg, and secondary sex ratio refers to the male-to-female ratio at the time of childbirth.

The reason is that cervical mucus viscosity varies across the cycle with being thick immediately before and after ovulation, thus giving advantage to smaller and shorter Y-bearing sperm to reach and fuse with an egg (Jongbloet et al. 2001 ).

The National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS) conducted the survey under the guidance of the Ministry of National Health Services, Regulations and Coordination of Pakistan. Sampling is based on a stratified two-stage cluster sampling procedure. The population is stratified into urban and rural area frames. At the first stage, clusters of about 200 to 250 households are identified within each sampling frame, and 498 clusters in total are selected to represent the population of the four provinces of Pakistan and Gilgit Baltistan region. The sample excludes Azad Jammu and Kashmir, FATA, and restricted military and protected areas. At the second stage, 28 households are randomly chosen for interviews from each cluster by applying a systematic sampling technique with a random start.

We exclude all events that are coded as terrorism. The aggregate (non-terror) political violence—in addition to violences captured in the five listed variables—includes threat of violence and other types of violence that are not easily categorized.

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Navigating an unpredictable environment: the moderating role of perceived environmental unpredictability in the effectiveness of ecological resource scarcity information on pro-environmental behavior

• Dian Gu 1 , 2 &
• Jiang Jiang 3  

BMC Psychology volume  12 , Article number:  261 ( 2024 ) Cite this article

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The global issue of ecological resource scarcity, worsened by climate change, necessitates effective methods to promote resource conservation. One commonly used approach is presenting ecological resource scarcity information. However, the effectiveness of this method remains uncertain, particularly in an unpredictable world. This research aims to examine the role of perceived environmental unpredictability in moderating the impact of ecological resource scarcity information on pro-environmental behavior (PEB).

We conducted three studies to test our hypothesis on moderation. Study 1 ( N  = 256) measured perceived general environmental unpredictability, perceived resource scarcity and daily PEB frequencies in a cross-sectional survey. Study 2 ( N  = 107) took it a step further by manipulating resource scarcity. Importantly, to increase ecological validity, Study 3 ( N  = 135) manipulated the information on both ecological resource scarcity and nature-related environmental unpredictability, and measured real water and paper consumption using a newly developed washing-hands paradigm.

In Study 1, we discovered that perceived resource scarcity positively predicted PEB, but only when individuals perceive the environment as less unpredictable (interaction effect: 95% CI  = [-0.09, -0.01], Δ R 2  = 0.018). Furthermore, by manipulating scarcity information, Study 2 revealed that only for individuals with lower levels of environmental unpredictability presenting ecological resource scarcity information could decrease forest resource consumption intention (interaction effect: 95% CI  = [-0.025, -0.031], Δ R 2  = .04). Moreover, Study 3 found that the negative effect of water resource scarcity information on actual water and (interaction effect: 95%CI = [3.037, 22.097], η p 2  = .050) paper saving behaviors (interaction effect: 95%CI = [0.021, 0.275], η p 2  = .040), as well as hypothetical forest resource consumption (interaction effect: 95%CI = [-0.053, 0.849], η p 2  = .023) emerged only for people who receiving weaker environmental unpredictability information.

Across three studies, we provide evidence to support the moderation hypothesis that environmental unpredictability weakens the positive effect of ecological resource scarcity information on PEB, offering important theoretical and practical implications on the optimal use of resource scarcity to enhance PEB.

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Introduction

Ecological resource scarcity, such as water and energy, poses significant challenges in our current times. The reduction of renewable freshwater resources per capita by 55% from 1993 to 2014 emphasizes the urgency of addressing this issue [ 1 ]. According to the World Economic Forum (2019), water shortages remain a top concern for policymakers and business leaders worldwide. In response to resource scarcity, various entities, including governments, water utilities, and community-based organizations, have employed different strategies to promote resource conservation [ 2 ]. One of the most common approaches is to raise problem awareness by conveying information about resource scarcity [ 2 ]. For example, the fact that billions of people lack access to safe water is utilized in the World Water Day campaign in 2023 to encourage more people to take action. Additionally, the Hong Kong SAR Government’s “Let’s Save 10L Water 2.0” campaign emphasizes the importance of conserving water by highlighting the limited availability of this resource.

Despite these efforts, it is important to recognize the complexity and interconnectedness of the world we live in, which makes predicting future environmental conditions challenging. Unforeseen events such as pathogen prevalence, natural disasters, wars, and financial crises illustrate the dynamic nature of our environment. In such an unpredictable world, can simply providing information about ecological resource scarcity lead to a significant increase in pro-environmental behaviors?

In the current research, we aimed to explore whether ecological resource scarcity information could promote pro-environmental behaviors effectively in the unpredictable world. We argued that ecological resource scarcity information is not necessarily useful in promoting pro-environmental behaviors and proposed that environmental unpredictability is a vital factor weakening the effect of ecological resource scarcity on resource consumption.

Uncertain association between ecological resource scarcity information and pro-environmental behaviors

Based on the information-motivation-behavioral skills (IMB) model, individuals are more likely to change their behavior when they are informed about a problem, along with being motivated to act and have skills to act [ 3 ]. In the environmental protection domain, there is a general lack of problem awareness about ecological resource scarcity [ 4 , 5 ]. This lack of awareness hinders individuals from engaging in pro-environmental behaviors (PEB), which refers to the actions that enhance the quality of the environment, regardless of the intent behind them [ 6 ]. Resource conservation campaigns often focus on resource scarcity information to encourage PEB [ 7 ]. In some empirical studies, the resource scarcity information was found to be effective. For example, individuals living in regions that experience drought have a higher tendency to make behavioral changes to conserve water [ 8 , 9 ]. People who perceived stronger ecological resource scarcity reported higher resource-saving behavioral frequencies [ 10 ], and indicated a higher frequency of PEB [ 11 ]. And water scarcity information was linked to a significant decrease in water use [ 12 , 13 , 14 ].

However, we identified some conflicting evidence. Information about resource scarcity is often not sufficient to reduce resource consumption in intervention [ 15 ], and the effectiveness of awareness campaigns is unclear [ 16 ]. For example, presenting the information about water resource scarcity only was evaluated as ineffective to promote water-saving behaviors by lay people [ 10 ]. Energy scarcity information was not strong enough to affect attitudes, intentions, and behaviors toward electricity energy saving [ 17 ]. Moreover, resource scarcity information failed to modify resource consumption behaviors in experimental settings [ 2 , 18 ].

The uncertain relationship between resource scarcity and PEB can be understood through an evolutionary psychological approach. According to the life history theory, individuals may adopt various strategies for allocating resources [ 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 ]. Those who choose a slow life history strategy prioritize long-term benefits and future planning, which leads them to behave in an environmentally friendly manner for the sake of future generations. On the other hand, individuals adopting a fast life history strategy prioritize immediate gains over long-term consequences [ 24 ], resulting in less PEB.

This theory, combined with empirical evidence, suggest that the impact of resource scarcity on PEB may vary depending on the situation, implying that promoting pro-environmental actions may require considering factors beyond simply informing individuals about scarcity. If PEB is seen as an investment in the environment, people engaging in PEB expect long-term benefits from it. However, the environment does not always provide consistent long-term benefits, particularly in today’s unpredictable world. When the expected advantages of environmental protection become uncertain, individuals may prioritize immediate gains, exploit natural resources, and reduce their commitment to PEB. This study hence focuses on the situational factor related to the unpredictable environment, testing its importance in influencing individuals’ PEB under resource scarcity.

Moderating role of environmental unpredictability

Environmental unpredictability is defined as the level of spatial–temporal variation in environmental harshness [ 24 ]. Past empirical studies measured environmental unpredictability in diverse ways [ 25 ]. In the current research, we tried to capture both individual-related and nature-related environmental unpredictability in temporal or spatial dimensions. Individual-related environmental unpredictability is mostly indicated by residential changes, and changes in parental financial status for children [ 19 , 24 , 26 ]. It shows whether the structure of an environment, such as the social or economic environment in which one lives, changes over time. Nature-related environmental unpredictability focuses on the pattern of variation that makes environments unpredictable, such as unpredictability of weather and the unpredictability of natural disasters [ 25 ].

Based on the life history theory, the environment plays a crucial role in shaping individuals’ life history strategies [ 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 ]. In predictable environments individuals are more likely to adopt a slow life-history strategy, while highly unpredictable environments promote a fast life-history strategy [ 24 ]. Importantly, environmental unpredictability during childhood can influence short-sighted tendencies [ 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 ], and this effect can also be observed in adulthood [ 31 ]. In an unpredictable environment, individuals prioritize immediate desires over future needs because investing in long-term environmental protection may not yield future benefits. This has implications for PEB, as present efforts on environmental protection may not be effective in improving resource scarcity in the future when the environment is unpredictable.

There are two aspects that illustrate the expectation that PEB efforts may not pay off in unpredictable environments. Firstly, in an unpredictable environment, there is a flow of uncontrollable information, which makes it challenging for individuals to maintain strong beliefs that their actions can bring about positive outcomes, such as improving resource scarcity [ 32 ]. According to the theories of reasoned action and planned behavior, the impact of awareness of the problem on behavior is greater when individuals perceive a higher level of control over their actions [ 33 ]. Hence, environmental unpredictability not only reduces the perceived personal control but also creates a barrier between scarcity awareness and PEB.

Secondly, in unpredictable environments, individuals are more likely to fear free riders, which further hinders behavioral change towards environmental protection under resource scarcity. When deciding whether to take action to protect the environment, people consider whether others will cooperate. However, in unpredictable environments, the likelihood of others investing in PEB becomes uncertain as well, which induces a heightened fear of free riders. For instance, experimental games have shown that individuals behave less cooperatively and invest fewer public goods when the probability of benefiting from them is uncertain [ 34 ]. Moreover, studies have demonstrated that individuals are less likely to prioritize the interests of others over their own when environmental unpredictability is primed [ 31 , 35 ]. Due to the fear that others will not take action in an unpredictable environment, individual efforts to protect the environment may appear less effective in solving the issue of resource scarcity.

Taken together, stronger environmental unpredictability is associated with a fast life-history strategy characterized by low self-efficacy and high fear of free riders, which ultimately leads to less PEB performance in the face of resource scarcity. Both multilevel and individual-level studies have indicated that psychological traits similar to the fast life history strategy weaken the association between environmental problem awareness and actual PEB [ 10 , 36 ]. Besides, some indirect evidence revealed that resource scarcity and environmental unpredictability could lead to some psychological outcomes that go against promoting PEB. Specifically, poorer childhood and economic uncertainty jointly increase the present orientation and decrease the sense of control [ 37 , 38 ]. A strong present orientation and low sense of control discourage people from taking actions to save resources [ 39 ]. With the above in mind, the following moderation hypothesis was proposed:

Hypothesis: Environmental unpredictability will moderate the effect of ecological resource scarcity on PEB. Specifically, ecological resource scarcity information would play a less effective role in promoting PEB when environmental unpredictability is stronger.

Current research

In the current research, we conducted three studies to test our hypothesis on moderation. In Study 1, we examined whether perceived general environmental unpredictability would moderate the relationship between perceived resource scarcity and daily PEB frequencies. Study 2 took it a step further by manipulating resource scarcity to test whether the positive effect of ecological resource scarcity information on forest resource consumption intention would be weakened by individual-related environmental unpredictability, specifically the frequency of residential changes. Importantly, to increase ecological validity, Study 3 manipulated the information on both ecological resource scarcity and nature-related environmental unpredictability, and measured real water and paper consumption using a newly developed washing-hands paradigm.

To examine the moderating effect of environmental unpredictability on the relationship between ecological resource scarcity and daily PEB frequency, we conducted a cross-sectional survey for Study 1. We hypothesised that ecological resource scarcity would predict higher frequencies of daily PEB for individuals who perceived the environment as predictable. However, we expected this positive association to diminish for individuals who perceived high levels of environmental unpredictability.

Participants

To ensure sufficient statistical power (80% power, α = .05) to detect a small-to-medium-sized effect for our moderation hypothesis, based on previous research in the same domain [ 10 ], we estimated that a sample size of 256 participants would be required using G*Power 3.1 [ 40 ]. Participants were recruited from a Chinese online survey platform ( www.wjx.cn ) and received monetary compensation for their participation. The survey platform utilized a voluntary opt-in panel, inviting users to complete the questionnaire. A total of 263 participants from China completed the survey. It is important to note that data collection was planned to conclude once 256 observations were collected within a three-week period.

The average age of the participants was 32.21 ± 7.11 years (ranging from 18 to 66 years), with 44.1% of them being male ( N  = 116). In terms of educational attainment, 1.9% held a middle-school degree or below, 1.9% had a high school degree, 8.7% held a junior college degree, 79.8% had a bachelor’s degree, and 7.6% had a master’s degree or higher. The average annual family income was 23.65 ± 21.04 ten thousand yuan.

Procedure and measures

To address the potential influence of priming participants’ perceived resource scarcity through items expressing the seriousness of resource scarcity [ 11 , 41 , 42 ], we carefully structured the data collection process. Firstly, we measured the dependent variable, PEB frequencies. Following this, participants completed the measure of perceived environmental unpredictability, and subsequently rated their perceived ecological resource scarcity. Additionally, to account for potential bias in self-reported PEB due to social desirability [ 43 ], we included a measurement of social desirability as a control variable. Finally, participants provided their demographic information, including age, gender, educational attainment, and annual personal income.

Perceived resource scarcity

The measurement of perceived ecological resource scarcity, consisting of 5 items, was adapted from a previous study conducted by Gu and her colleagues [ 10 ] (Cronbach’s α in the current study is 0.79). Participants were asked to indicate their level of agreement with statements such as “There are not enough resources for everyone in the place where I live” and “In the place where I live, I have already noticed some signs of resource scarcity.” Each item was rated on a 7-point Likert scale, ranging from 1 ( strongly disagree ) to 7 ( strongly agree ). The mean score of the entire scale was computed. Higher scores on this scale indicated higher levels of perceived ecological resource scarcity.

Perceived general environmental unpredictability

The item “For me, the environment we live in is unpredictable” developed by Reynolds and McCrea [ 44 ], was used to measure how participants perceived the general unpredictability of their environment. Participants rated this item on a 7-point Likert scale, ranging from 1 ( strongly disagree ) to 7 ( strongly agree ). Higher score indicated stronger perceived unpredictability.

Daily PEB frequency

Participants were asked to rate the frequency of PEB in their daily lives on a scale from 1 ( never ) to 5 ( always ). They were presented with six common resource conservation actions and asked to consider their behaviors in the year prior to the survey. The items are “do not turn the tap to the maximum when using water”, “switch off the lights when you leave”, “set the air conditioner’s temperature to 26–28 degrees centigrade in summer”, “buy and use energy-efficient appliances”, “avoid using disposable tableware whenever possible”. These six PEB were then converted into a PEB frequency scale, and a mean score was calculated for each participant. Higher scores indicated a higher frequency of PEB. Although the Cronbach’s α for the PEB scale was relatively low at .50, we decided to keep the measure because the items were face-valid. It is worth noting that removing any of the items did not improve the Cronbach’s alpha. Consistent with findings from previous studies, different types of PEB were not completely consistent [ 45 , 46 ]. And importantly, using the common score derived from the six items did not significantly alter the results.

Social desirability

Social desirability was measured using the liar subscale of the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ) [ 47 ]. This subscale consists of 12 items, with participants answering each question with a “ Yes ” or “ No ” response. A code of 1 was assigned to “ Yes ” and 0 to “ No ”. Higher scores on this subscale indicated a stronger tendency towards social desirability. The measure demonstrated good internal consistency with a Cronbach’s α of .75.

Correlation analyses

Prior to conducting hypothesis testing, all variables exhibited normal distributions, as indicated by skewness values ranging from -0.89 to + 0.05 and kurtosis values ranging from -0.72 to + 0.77. We computed Pearson’s correlation coefficients to explore the relations among the studied variables (see Table  1 for descriptive statistics and intercorrelation coefficients). We found a marginally significant positive relationship between perceived ecological resource scarcity and PEB frequency ( r  = 0.12, p  = .058). And there was no correlation between environmental unpredictability and PEB frequency ( r  = -0.07, p  = .29). Importantly, as expected, social desirability was positively associated with PEB ( r  = 0.30, p  < .001), indicating that it should be controlled for in subsequent analyses.

Moderation analyses

To examine the impact of environmental unpredictability on the relationship between perceived ecological resource scarcity and PEB, we used the PROCESS macro for SPSS [ 48 ]. Controlling for social desirability, we found a significant interaction effect between perceived ecological resource scarcity and environmental unpredictability ( b  = -0.05, SE  = 0.02, t  = -2.26, p  = .025, 95% CI  = [-0.09, -0.01], Δ R 2  = 0.018). To further understand this interaction, we conducted a floodlight analysis [ 49 ]. The results showed that perceived ecological resource scarcity was positively and significantly associated with PEB when environmental unpredictability was below 4.41 ( b  = 0.07, SE  = 0.03, t  = 1.97, p  = .05, 95% CI  = [0.000, 0.136]), but not when it was above 4.41.

Additionally, we performed a simple slope analysis to examine the relationship between perceived ecological resource scarcity and PEB for individuals with different levels of perceived environmental unpredictability with social desirability controlled (see Fig.  1 ). The results indicated that perceived ecological resource scarcity positively predicted PEB for individuals with lower levels of environmental unpredictability (-1 SD ), b  = 0.13, SE  = 0.05, t  = 2.83, p  = .005, 95% CI  = [0.039, 0.219]. However, this relationship was not significant for individuals with higher levels of environmental unpredictability (+ 1 SD ), ( b  = -0.02, SE  = 0.05, t  = -0.35, p  = 0.73, 95% CI  = [-0.114, 0.079]).

The effect of resource scarcity on PEB at different levels of environmental unpredictability (Study 1)

Furthermore, controlling for demographic variables did not significantly change the results of moderation analysis. In summary, individuals who perceived the environment as more predictable were more likely to engage in PEB when facing ecological resource scarcity.

Brief discussion

Study 1 identified a moderating effect of environmental unpredictability on associations between perceived ecological resource scarcity and daily PEB. Individuals who perceived the environment as less unpredictable were more likely to adopt environmentally friendly ways to respond to ecological resource scarcity. However, it is important to consider the potential influence of responding to the PEB items on participants’ perceptions of ecological resource scarcity. The act of responding to these items may have directed participants’ attention towards environmental issues, potentially leading to an implicit increase in their perceived ecological resource scarcity. Therefore, it is not possible to infer the direction of the causal relationship between perceived ecological resource scarcity and PEB frequencies solely from correlational data. In addition, using a single item for measuring environmental unpredictability may raise concerns about the comprehensiveness of measurement. To address these limitations, we conducted Study 2, where we manipulated perceived ecological resource scarcity in order to demonstrate its causal effect, and further explore the moderating effect of environmental unpredictability by using another measurement.

Furthermore, it is important to note that the observed moderation effect size was small, which could be attributed to the fact that we measured various types of PEB in this study. According to the Goal System Theory, PEB can be motivated by multiple goals. In the context of resource scarcity, individuals who perceive the environment as more predictable are more likely to prioritize environmental protection for the benefit of future generations, especially if they themselves also stand to gain [ 50 ]. For instance, engaging in electricity-saving behaviors not only benefits the environment in the long run but also reduces personal electricity bills. In other words, personal benefits may matter. In our subsequent studies, we will focus on examining PEB that does not involve salient personal benefits in order to highlight the moderating effect of environmental unpredictability.

In Study 2, we sought to replicate the moderating effect of environmental unpredictability on the link between ecological resource scarcity and PEB by manipulating resource scarcity information. We proposed that receiving ecological resource scarcity information would increase PEB intention for individuals with lower levels of environmental unpredictability but that the effect would disappear for individuals with higher levels of environmental unpredictability.

To test our moderation hypothesis, we determined that a sample size of 107 would be necessary to achieve 80% power (α = .05) in order to detect a small-to-medium-size effect ( f 2  = .075) based on previous research [ 10 ] using G*Power 3.1 [ 40 ]. We established the rule for ending data collection prior to gathering data, stipulating that the survey link would be closed after obtaining more than 150 observations. Ultimately, we recruited 155 Chinese adults who completed an anonymous online questionnaire and all of these responses were valid.

The participants had an average age of 32.91 ± 10.10 years (range = 18–59 years) and 41.90% of them were males ( N  = 65). In terms of educational attainment, 9.70% held a high school degree, 16.1% held a junior college degree, 66.6% held a bachelor’s degree, and 13.5% held a master’s degree or higher. The average annual personal income was 11.18 ± 44.58 ten thousand yuan.

In the present study, participants reported their demographic information first. Then, environmental unpredictability was measured. Next, participants were randomly assigned to one of two experimental conditions to read a news article, where exposure to the information of resource scarcity (vs. control condition) was the manipulated factor. Finally, PEB intention was measured using a forest management task.

Manipulation of ecological resource scarcity information

Participants were assigned at random to read one of two news articles. The articles were created specifically to manipulate perceptions of ecological resource scarcity. In the scarcity group ( n  = 77), participants read an article titled “Interpretation of China’s Resources through Big Data: Invisible Resource Scarcity in China”, which highlighted the severity of natural resource scarcity in China. In the control group ( n  = 78), participants read an article of similar length that aimed to evoke similar levels of negative arousal. This article was titled “Interpretation of Sleep through Big Data: Invisible Sleeping Problems in China” and discussed sleep issues in China. To ensure the credibility of the mock news articles, participants were informed that the articles were sourced from The People’s Daily , a reputable Chinese newspaper.

Immediately after reading their respective article, participants rated their perception of ecological resource scarcity using a 7-point Likert scale ranging from “ strongly disagree ” (1) to “ strongly agree ” (7). The item presented was: “Currently, I believe that we live in an environment where natural resources are extremely scarce.” Besides, participants also responded to one item on their mood at the moment for the manipulation check on a 7-point Likert scale (1 = “ very negative ” to 7 = “ very positive ”).

• Environmental unpredictability

At the individual level, environmental unpredictability is mostly indicated by residential changes [ 24 , 25 ]. The frequency of residential changes showed whether the structure of an environment one lives in changes over time, which is the important aspect of environmental unpredictability. Therefore, Study 2 used the frequency individuals moved in the past to represent their environmental unpredictability. Higher score indicates stronger environmental unpredictability ( M  = 3.59, SD  = 2.17, Min  = 0, Max  = 11). The variable showed approximately normal distribution, with skewness = 0.64 and kurtosis = 0.65. Hence, the raw data of moving frequency are used for analysis.

PEB intention

A forest management task was used to measure PEB intention, specifically in relation to forest resource conservation intention [ 51 ]. Participants were asked to imagine that they were the owner of a timber company and must compete with three other companies to harvest timber in the same forest. They need to cut down as many trees as possible for their companies to profit and thrive. However, the rapid deforestation could lead to forest destruction. Then, participants were asked to answer one question about deforestation rate on a 7-point Likert scale, ranging from 1 ( very slow ) to 7 ( very fast ), which asked, ‘How fast do you want your company to cut down trees?’ Additionally, they were asked one question about forest resource consumption, ranging from 1 to 100 acres, which asked, ‘How many acres of trees do you expect your company to cut down?’. Give that both questions indicate greedy for forest resources, the average of participants’ reversed standardized scores on the two questions was computed to represent PEB intention. Higher scores indicate stronger forest resource conservation intention. We also treated the two items separately to test our hypothesis, which can be found in the Additional file 1 .

Manipulation checks

The manipulation of resource scarcity information was successful. Specifically, participants in the scarcity condition ( M  = 5.17, SD  = 1.25) compared to those in the control condition ( M  = 4.55, SD  = 1.56), reported higher levels of awareness on ecological resource scarcity, t (153) = 2.72, p  = .007, 95%CI = [0.169, 1.066], d  = 0.44. Furthermore, there was no difference of mood between the two conditions ( M scarcity  = 5.06, SD scarcity  = 1.19; M control  = 4.92, SD control  = 1.23), t (153) = 0.73, p  > .05, 95%CI = [-0.526, 0.242].

Hypothesis test

To test for the moderating effect of environmental unpredictability, we regressed the forest resource conservation intention on ecological resource scarcity information (dummy coded: 1 =  scarcity condition, 0 =  control condition), environmental unpredictability and their interaction by employing the PROCESS macro (Model 1, 5000 bootstrap samples) for SPSS [ 48 ]. The results showed a significant main effect of ecological resource scarcity information ( b  = 0.63, SE  = 0.23, t  = 2.78, p  = .006, 95% CI  = [0.183, 1.078]). And there was no main effect of environmental unpredictability ( b  = 0.04, SE  = .03, t  = 1.23, p  > .05, 95% CI  = [-0.026, 0.109]).

Results showed a significant interaction effect ( b  = -0.14, SE  = 0.06, t  = -2.54, p  = .012, 95% CI  = [-0.025, -0.031], Δ R 2  = .04), meaning that the effect of ecological resource scarcity information on forest resource conservation intention was moderated by environmental unpredictability. Specifically, for individuals with lower levels of environmental unpredictability (below 1 SD ), participants in the scarcity condition exhibited stronger forest resource conservation intention relative to those in the control condition, b  = 0.43, SE  = 0.16, t  = 2.63, p  = .0095, 95% CI = [0.107, 0.755]. In contrast, for individuals with higher levels of environmental unpredictability (above 1 SD ), the ecological resource scarcity manipulation had no effect on forest resource conservation intention, b  = -0.17, SE  = 0.17, t  = -1.04, p  > .05, 95% CI = [-0.512, 0.158] (see Fig.  2 ).

The effect of resource scarcity × environmental unpredictability on forest resource conservation intention (Study 2)

Besides, a floodlight analysis was performed to decompose the interaction [ 49 ]. It revealed that ecological resource scarcity manipulation increased forest resource conservation intention for any value of environmental unpredictability less than 2.78 ( b  = 0.24, SE  = 0.12, t  = 1.98, p  = .05, 95% CI = [0.000, 0.487]), but not for any value greater than 2.78. More importantly, the above findings did not significantly differ after controlling for demographic variables.

Study 2 replicated results of Study 1 and identified that environmental unpredictability weakened the positive effect of ecological resource scarcity information on resource conservation. Presenting ecological resource scarcity information could effectively increase forest conservation intention, particularly for individuals who move less frequently, indicating lower levels of environmental unpredictability.

However, the results of Study 2 were limited in several aspects. First, environmental unpredictability can be caused either by individuals themselves, such as frequent relocation, or by nature, such as unforeseen natural disasters. The present study focused on individual-related environmental unpredictability only. Secondly, the measurement of resource conservation intention instead of actual behaviors may have restricted the ecological validity of the findings. Thirdly, it is possible that the moderation effect was underestimated. In the forest management task, the psychological experience of forest resource scarcity may have been primed in both conditions, as participants were informed about the need to compete with other companies for limited forest resources. Consequently, participants’ decisions may have been heavily influenced by the forest management scenario.

Based on above discussions of Study 2, in Study 3, actual PEB was measured to increase ecological validity, and nature-caused environmental unpredictability was focused to improve generalizability. In addition, hypothetical forest resource conservation was also measured to replicate findings of Study 2. We proposed that receiving ecological resource scarcity information would increase actual resource conservation and forest resource conservation intention under predictable environmental conditions but that this effect would disappear under unpredictable environmental conditions.

We conducted a power analysis through G*Power 3.1 with the moderating effect size in Study 2, which suggested that a sample size of 135 would be required to achieve 80% power ( α  = .05) [ 40 ]. A total of 142 college students in Beijing, China was recruited to participate in the experiment in exchange for monetary compensation. Six participants who failed to finish all experimental tasks were excluded from data analysis. It is worth noting that the rule for terminating data collection was decided before data collection began: the experiment was terminated when more than 135 observations were collected in two weeks.

The average age of the participants was 21.87 ± 2.67 years (range = 17–29 years), and 75.00% of them were female ( N  = 102). The average annual household income was 12.37 ± 17.10 thousand yuan .

Research design and procedure

A 2 (water resource scarcity vs. control) × 2 (unpredictable vs. predictable environment) between-subject design was used.

Before arriving at the lab, participants were asked to fill out their demographic information in an online survey. Upon arrival at the lab, participants were randomly assigned into one of four groups to read a newspaper. These newspapers were designed to be looked like real Beijing Daily newspapers. In each type of newspaper, there were two pieces of news. One was designed to manipulate the water resource scarcity information, and another was designed to manipulate environmental unpredictability information. Then, actual water and paper consumption data was recorded in a washing-hands paradigm. Finally, forest resource consumption intention was measured.

Manipulation of water resource scarcity information

Similar to Study 2, in the scarcity condition ( n  = 67), the news article described the seriousness of water resource scarcity in Beijing. While, in the control condition ( n  = 69), the news article described Beijing residents’ sleep problems. After reading the article, participants responded to 1 item on perceived ecological resource scarcity on a 7-point Likert scale (1 = “ strongly disagree ” to 7 = “ strongly agree ”), which was adapted from new ecological paradigm scale (NEP): “The earth has plenty of natural resources if we just learn how to develop them” [ 52 ].

Manipulation of environmental unpredictability information

In the unpredictable condition ( n  = 68), the news article was titled “Natural Disasters are Unpredictable and Difficult to Prevent: 9.578 million People were Affected by Various Natural Disasters in January”. The news conveyed the information that natural disasters happened frequently, which caused many people to be affected in January, and there was no way to predict and prevent disasters. By contrast, in the predictable condition ( n  = 68), the news stated that even though natural disasters are frequent in China and many people were affected, now some devices can help predict and prevent disasters. The title was “Predication and Prevention of the Occurrence of Natural Disasters is Possible: 9.578 million People were Affected by Various Natural Disasters in January”.

Manipulation check items were rated right after reading the news article. Participants responded to 2 items about perceived unpredictability on a 7-point Likert scale (1 = “ strongly disagree ” to 7 = “ strongly agree ”): “The environment where I live is unstable”, and “The environment where I live is unpredictable”. The average score of the two items was computed such that a higher score indicated stronger perceived unpredictability.

Actual water and paper resource consumption

To cover up our real purpose, participants were told that the research was attempting to study palms, so that we would collect their fingerprints in the study. In the washing-hands paradigm, participants were asked to use the inkpad and leave their fingerprints on a sheet of white paper to study their palms. After that, they had to wash their hands in the lab. The amount of water and paper they used was recorded.

To measure the water consumption, the experimenter placed one measuring cylinder under the washbasin, and the measuring cylinder was linked to the washbasin’s outlet pipe. Importantly, participants could not see the cylinder. To measure their paper consumption, a bag of paper was placed on the washbasin for the participants to use. Besides, to exclude the experimenter effect, participants washed their hands without experimenter observation. Importantly, participants did not know that their behaviors were recorded, and participants were not aware of the real purpose of the study (see Fig.  3 ). All of the participants were debriefed at the end of the study.

Set-up of washing-hands paradigm

Considering that water and paper consumption for washing ink from hands might be affected by palm size, we recorded the palm area for each participant based on their fingerprints. Then, actual resource consumption was represented by average water consumption and average paper consumption, calculated by water or paper consumption divided by palm area.

Hypothetical forest resource conservation

Same as Study 2, the forest management task was used. After reading the scenario, participants were asked to answer the question, “How many acres of trees do you expect your company to cut down?”, ranging from 1 to 100 acres. A higher score on the measurement indicates a lower intention for forest resource conservation.

Perceived resource scarcity was significantly greater in the scarcity condition ( n  = 67, M  = 5.61, SD  = 1.19) than that in the control condition ( n  = 69, M  = 5.13, SD  = 1.38), t (134) = 2.17, p  = .032, 95%CI = [0.043, 0.920], d  = 0.37. Perceived unpredictability was also significantly greater in the unpredictable condition ( n  = 68, M  = 5.13, SD  = 1.28) compared to the predictable condition ( n  = 68, M  = 4.55, SD  = 1.39), t (134) = 2.51, p  = .013, 95%CI = [0.121, 1.026], d  = 0.43. Overall, the manipulations were successful and valid.

To examine the interaction effect between water resource scarcity and environmental unpredictability on resource conservation, two-factor MANOVAs were conducted.

Concerning the average water consumption, gender, age, household income, and cleanliness habits are included as control variables. The findings revealed that the main effect of scarcity was significant ( F (1,128) = 5.44, p  = 0.021, 95%CI = [-14.168, -0.673], η p 2  = .041), and the main effect of environmental unpredictability was not significant ( F (1,128) = 0.23, p  > .05, 95%CI = [-7.437, 5.984]). As expected, the interaction was significant ( F (1,128) = 6.81, p  = .01, 95%CI = [3.037, 22.097], η p 2  = .050). Then, simple effect analysis revealed that under the predictable condition, the average water consumption was significantly less under the scarcity condition ( M  = 25.29, SD  = 13.87) than under the control condition ( M  = 37.13, SD  = 13.91), F (1,128) = 12.25, p  < .001, 95%CI = [-18.535, -5.146], η p 2  = .087. However, under the unpredictable condition, there was no significant difference between the scarcity condition ( M  = 32.71, SD  = 13.93) and control condition ( M  = 31.98, SD  = 13.90), F (1,128) = 0.05, p  > .05, 95%CI = [-5.984, 7.437] (see Fig.  4 ).

Average water consumption as a function of resource scarcity and environmental unpredictability manipulations (Study 3)

Moreover, the results in average paper consumption showed a similar pattern. Main effects of scarcity ( F (1,128) = 0.42, p  > .05, 95%CI = [-0.137, 0.042]) and environmental unpredictability ( F (1,128) = 0.70, p  > .05, 95%CI = [-0.143, 0.036]) were not significant. A significant interaction effect was detected, F (1,128) = 5.30, p  = .023, 95%CI = [0.021, 0.275], η p 2  = .040. As predicted, in the predictable condition, paper consumption in the scarcity condition ( M  = 0.28, SD  = 0.18) was significantly less than in the control condition ( M  = 0.38, SD  = 0.18), F (1,128) = 4.39, p  = .038, 95%CI = [-0.184, -0.005], η p 2  = .033. No significant difference in paper consumption were observed between scarcity condition ( M  = 0.33, SD  = 0.19) and control condition ( M  = 0.28, SD  = 0.19) in unpredictable condition, F (1,128) = 1.39, p  > .05, 95%CI = [-0.036, 0.143] (see Fig.  5 ).

Average paper consumption as a function of resource scarcity and environmental unpredictability manipulations (Study 3)

More importantly, the above findings did not significantly differ without control variables in data analysis, and also did not significantly differ using the raw scores of water and paper consumption. Detailed results can be found in the Additional file 1 .

Hypothetical forest resource consumption was log transformed as it showed non-normal distribution. The findings showed that the main effects of scarcity ( F (1,130) = 1.800, p  > .05, 95%CI = [-0.363, 0.271]) and environmental unpredictability ( F (1,130) = 2.189, p  > .05, 95%CI = [-0.688, 0.049]) were not significant. A marginally significant interaction effect was detected, F (1, 130) = 3.04, p  = .084, 95%CI = [-0.053, 0.849], η p 2  = .023. As predicted, in the predictable condition, forest resource consumption in the scarcity condition ( M raw  = 30.76, SD raw  = 14.97) was significantly less than the control condition ( M raw  = 40.74, SD raw  = 25.41), F (1,130) = 4.71, p  = .032, 95%CI = [-0.672, -0.031], η p 2  = .035. No significant difference of forest resource consumption was observed between scarcity condition ( M raw  = 42.15, SD raw  = 20.41) and control condition ( M raw  = 44.00, SD raw  = 28.17) in unpredictable condition, F (1,130) = 0.08, p  > .05, 95%CI = [-0.027, 0.363] (see Fig.  6 ).

Forest resource consumption as a function of resource scarcity and environmental unpredictability manipulations (Study 3)

As expected, Study 3 replicated the findings of the previous two studies. We identified a moderating effect of nature-caused environmental unpredictability on ecological resource scarcity information’s effect on actual PEB. Specifically, individuals who received lower levels of environmental unpredictability information exhibited more water-saving and paper-saving behaviors, and were inclined to harvest fewer forest resources in the face of water scarcity. Interestingly, even though our manipulation focused solely on water scarcity, both paper consumption and forest resource consumption were affected as well, despite their lack of direct association with water. These results highlight the robust influence of resource scarcity information and environmental unpredictability on PEB, thereby enhancing the ecological validity of our findings.

General discussion

Focusing on the global issue of environmental unpredictability, the current research explored when does showing resource scarcity information promote PEB. In Study 1, a cross-sectional study, we discovered that resource scarcity information effectively enhances PEB, but only when individuals perceive the environment as less unpredictable. Furthermore, by manipulating scarcity information, Study 2 revealed that only for individuals with lower levels of environmental unpredictability could presenting ecological resource scarcity information decrease forest resource consumption intention. Moreover, an experiment with high ecological validity was conducted in Study 3 and found that the negative effect of water resource scarcity information on actual water and paper saving behaviors, as well as hypothetical forest resource consumption emerged only for people who receiving weaker environmental unpredictability information.

Theoretical contribution and practical implication

Environmental unpredictability is an important concept in life history theory. Numerous studies have verified that childhood environmental unpredictability plays a crucial role in shaping life history strategies [ 27 , 28 , 30 , 37 , 53 ]. However, little is known about how adulthood environmental unpredictability functions. The current research provided preliminary evidence that unpredictability in adulthood can also function in shaping behaviors. Adulthood unpredictability, including both individual- and nature-related environmental unpredictability, demotivates individuals to sacrifice present interests for future environmental benefits when facing scarcity.

Some psychological factors, including those discussed earlier (such as short-sighted tendency, fear of free riders, and perceived lack of control), as well as self-interest and competitive orientation, can serve as potential mechanisms underlying the moderating effect of environmental unpredictability. Self-interest and competitive orientation are important ways for individuals to survive in a harsh environment. Individuals may adopt a competitive orientation to obtain more benefits for themselves to survive during periods of scarcity. In addition, they may also seek to weaken others’ interests. These factors have been identified as “Stone Age” psychological biases leading to environment destruction [ 54 ]. To better respond to ecological resource scarcity, the current research demonstrated the importance of creating a predictable and peaceful world by removing the psychological barriers to mitigate ecological resource scarcity.

The IMB model provides a comprehensive framework advancing resource conservation research and intervention implements [ 3 ]. Even though the IMB model captures three vital components, information, motivation, and behavioral skills on behavior change, the psychological barriers caused by environmental unpredictability were ignored. As illustrated in a recent meta-analysis [ 15 ], compared with the control group, of the 38 interventions including IMB components, water use was reduced by only 5.9% in average with a small effect size, and the magnitude of effect varied widely in different interventions. According to the findings in the current research, levels of environmental unpredictability may be the underlying reason for the varied efficacy. Therefore, to best strengthen reducing resource consumption interventions based on the IMB model, it’s necessary to take environmental unpredictability into consideration.

Importantly, the current research developed a new paradigm, washing-hands paradigm, to measure actual resource consumption in the lab. As illustrated in previous studies, there are gaps between self-reported behaviors, and objective behaviors [ 43 ]. However, over 80% of recent studies only relied on self-reported data [ 55 ]. The washing-hands paradigm sets up a situation to capture actual water and paper resource consumption data. Importantly, the confounding variables can be controlled in the paradigm, such as habits, individual difference on palm size, and social desirability. This paradigm can help to establish causality and improve ecological validity of lab experiments, advancing resource conservation research.

The current research also provides some vital practical implications for both policy makers and environmental organizations. Our data suggested that creating a predictable environment can help promote resource conservation when facing ecological resource scarcity information. Governments should try to eliminate unpredictable factors. However, some unpredictable factors are difficult to address, such as natural disasters and virus spread. In such conditions, individual-level practices appear to be more important. For countries with a predictable environment, the strategy of the reminders of the ecological resource scarcity information is effective. However, for countries with an unpredictable environment, governments and organizations can consider using public media to decrease residents’ perceived unpredictability. Moreover, inspired by our Study 2, emphasizing predictable environmental information when reminding residents of scarcity should be encouraged. Environmental organizations should provide information that the environment is predictable when calling for resource conservation to respond to scarcity.

Limitations and future directions

The current research faces the limitation that the measurement in the correlation study is restricted due to the use of only one item to measure the moderator, and the alpha level of the PEB measure is low. For future studies, one aspect to consider is the exploration potential mechanisms of the moderation hypothesis. The current research did not delve into psychological mechanisms. It is suggested that future research could investigate underlying potential mechanisms of the moderation hypothesis to enrich the framework. Another related issue pertains to the IMB model. In the current research, we mainly focused on the effectiveness of scarcity information component but didn’t include motivation and behavioral skills components. It’s worthy for future research to test if creating a predictable environment can still strengthen the effect of IMB intervention. Besides, there are various types of resource conservation behaviors that individuals can engage in. Importantly, different behaviors are not necessarily highly relevant. For example, factors predicting shutting down electronics at night could not predict upgrading to energy-efficient appliances because these behaviors may cluster into distinct dimensions [ 56 , 57 ]. In the current research, we may not be able to generalize our findings to other types of behaviors. Thus, future research is encouraged to investigate whether the moderation hypothesis can be verified in other types of resource conservation behaviors.

Across three studies, we provided evidence to support the moderation hypothesis that environmental unpredictability weakens the positive effect of ecological resource scarcity information on PEB. Moving forward, it would be valuable to delve deeper into the underlying mechanisms, examine the moderation effect across various types of PEB, and investigate its potential application in PEB interventions.

Availability of data and materials

No datasets were generated or analysed during the current study.

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The authors acknowledge the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31871126), Chongqing Normal University (23XWB043) and Social Science Fund of Chongqing, China (2023BS076).

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GD and JJ contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by GD. GD and JJ contributed to the interpretation of data. The first draft of the manuscript was written by GD. JJ commented on previous versions of the manuscript or revised it critically for important intellectual content. All authors approved the final version of the manuscript.

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Gu, D., Jiang, J. Navigating an unpredictable environment: the moderating role of perceived environmental unpredictability in the effectiveness of ecological resource scarcity information on pro-environmental behavior. BMC Psychol 12 , 261 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40359-024-01762-1

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DOI : https://doi.org/10.1186/s40359-024-01762-1

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• How U.S. Policy in Yemen Went Tragically Wrong

May 13, 2024 | M'Baye, Fatou | Current Affairs , Middle East Studies , Politics

Alexandra Stark—

On October 8, 2016, an airstrike by the Saudi-led coalition struck a crowded funeral hall in Sanaa, Yemen, killing at least 140 people and wounding an additional 600, including children. The strike was shocking to many Americans, not only because of the tragic death toll, but because of how it happened: according to Human Rights Watch , remnants of a U.S.-manufactured bomb were identified at the site.

This was eight years after President Obama was elected with the promise that he would end the United States’ “ dumb wars ” in the Middle East. So how, and why, was a U.S.-made weapon contributing to the deaths of children in Yemen?

The answer is important—and not just to humanitarians who are concerned about preventing harm to Yemeni civilians. It’s important because it can help us to understand why even well-intentioned U.S. policy in the Middle East often goes so tragically wrong.

For decades, U.S. policy in Yemen has been shaped by narrowly defined U.S. security interests, from countering the Soviet Union’s influence in the region during the Cold War to combating terrorist organizations after 9/11. It was not about what could contribute to the well-being of Yemenis.

Before Houthi insurgents rose up and captured the capital in 2014, setting off the civil war, U.S. policy in Yemen was framed by its own counterterrorism interests. The United States faced the dilemma of how to fight Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)—a terrorist organization linked to an attempted bombing on a U.S.-bound airliner in 2009 among other threats—without risking another quagmire in the Middle East. To effectively prevent terrorism without a larger U.S. investment, the U.S. partnered with Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s government and launched the occasional drone or missile strike. At first, American officials thought this approach was so successful that they dubbed it “ the Yemen model ” and advertised its success through early 2015, when the country was overrun by civil war.

The Yemen model has not worked because this framework is too narrow. It meant that Obama administration officials were unable to see that their corrupt government partner had started to wobble, even before the Arab Spring protests washed over the country in 2011. And it meant that in March 2015, when Saudi Arabia asked for support in their military intervention against the Houthis, U.S. officials felt they had to go along. They wanted to maintain the United States’ important security relationship with Gulf partners, even though one official said that the decision felt like “getting into a car with a drunk driver.”

Later on, some U.S. officials would acknowledge that “we were wrong to think that cautious and at times conditional support for the war in Yemen would influence Saudi and Emirati policy.” Still, under the Trump administration, the U.S. doubled down on its support for the coalition until the October 2018 assassination of Saudi regime critic Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents.

In February 2021, President Biden announced that the United States would be “stepping up our diplomacy to end the war in Yemen,” and in April 2022, the UN managed to negotiate a truce . The truce has, more or less, held up even though the Houthis continue to attack commercial vessels in the Red Sea and U.S. still launches strikes on Houthi targets.

In the meantime, though, U.S. support had contributed to a war that caused “one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises,” according to Oxfam , causing over 12,000 civilian deaths and forcing almost 4 million people to flee the fighting. Eighty percent of Yemen’s population, or 24 million people, now relies on emergency aid. Aid groups have warned that the turmoil in the Red Sea could contribute to the ongoing humanitarian crisis and create additional barriers for the humanitarian organizations delivering lifesaving support in Yemen.

The lessons of the Yemen model therefore remain potent a decade on, as another devastating conflict rages in Gaza. A narrow focus on maintaining U.S. security partnerships, counter-terrorism operations, and countering Iranian influence did not achieve U.S. security goals in Yemen. What might a new approach look like? It could focus on the well-being of people in Yemen and across the region, instead of on only narrowly defined U.S. security interests.

Alexandra Stark  is an associate policy researcher at RAND, a nonprofit, nonpartian research institution, and a fellow at New America’s International Security Program. Her award-winning work has been published in academic and public outlets.

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