chance problem solving year 4

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Australian Curriculum Mathematics V9 : AC9M4P01

Numeracy Progression : Understanding chance: progression: P3

At this level, students build on their language of chance and ability to order outcomes or events based on their likelihood of occurring. They begin working with independent and dependent events – independent events occur when one event does not affect the other, while dependent events are affected by previous events.

Use practical examples to allow students to discover the difference between dependent and independent events. Students may be familiar with independent events such as rolling a die, where there is a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 6, or when tossing a coin and getting a ‘tail’ is a 1 out of 2 chance. In these examples, the probability of a second roll of the die or next toss of a coin is not dependent on the result of the first.

Contrast this with examples of how drawing a card from a pack of playing cards and not returning it to the pack changes the probability of future cards drawn. Another example is choosing coloured marbles from a bag. Make explicit that each time a coloured marble is selected and not replaced, the probabilities change.

Use the Concrete, Representational, Abstract (CRA) model to compare dependent and independent events, focusing on the probabilities of each event.

Teaching and learning summary:

• Describe possible everyday events and order by their chance of occurring.
• Use practical examples to investigate dependent and independent events.

• order events from impossible to certain, including ‘least likely’ to ‘most likely’ to occur
• explain the effect on probabilities when an item is not replaced in a chance experiment.

Some students may:

• be still developing their language skills and not fully understand the language of chance to then be able to relate these to the likelihood of an event occurring.
• tend to believe in luck (for example, they will have a better chance at rolling their favourite numbers).
• make predictions based on likes and interests (for example, their favourite colours for spinners).
• not realise that chance has no memory (for example, if a student has rolled four sixes in a row, they often believe the fifth roll cannot possibly be another six).
• not be yet able to understand the difference between independent and dependent events and not be able to explain the effect of replacement.

Teachers should use true/false statements to help uncover any student misconceptions as students discuss and respond to questions and examples. For example, statements can include:

• When rolling a die, the event of rolling a 6 is less likely than rolling a 3.
• If I toss 4 heads in a row, it is highly likely that the next will be tails.
• If there are 100 jellybeans in the bag with 50 green and 50 red, the event of selecting a green will always be a fifty-fifty chance even if the jellybeans are not replaced after each selection.

The Learning from home activities are designed to be used flexibly by teachers, parents and carers, as well as the students themselves. They can be used in a number of ways including to consolidate and extend learning done at school or for home schooling.

Learning intention

• We are learning to describe possible everyday events and their chances of occurring.
• We are learning to use probability to solve a problem that draws on your understanding of probability.

Why are we learning about this?

• We use probability as a numerical measure of how likely an event is to happen.

Work out this problem, and record how you worked it out.

• Each box of cereal has a small prize, and there are five different prizes to collect. How many boxes of cereal would you expect to buy to get all of the different prizes?
• Can you think of a way to model this problem without buying any cereal?

Success criteria

• compare the likelihood of outcomes in a simple chance experiment
• conduct simple experiments with random generators
• make statements that acknowledge ‘randomness’ in a situation.

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Teaching strategies.

A collection of evidence-based teaching strategies applicable to this topic. Note we have not included an exhaustive list and acknowledge that some strategies such as differentiation apply to all topics. The selected teaching strategies are suggested as particularly relevant, however you may decide to include other strategies as well. 

Explicit teaching

Explicit teaching is about making the learning intentions and success criteria clear, with the teacher using examples and working though problems, setting relevant learning tasks and checking student understanding and providing feedback.

Concrete, Representational, Abstract (CRA)

The CRA model is a three-phased approach where students move from concrete or virtual manipulatives, to making visual representations and on to using symbolic notation.

Mathematics investigation

By giving students meaningful problems to solve they are engaged and can apply their learning, thereby deepening their understanding.

Questioning

A culture of questioning should be encouraged and students should be comfortable to ask for clarification when they do not understand.

It has been shown that good feedback can make a significant difference to a student’s future performance.

Collaborative learning

For group work to be effective students need to be taught explicitly how to work together in different settings, such as pairs or larger groups, and they need to practise these skills.

Teaching resources

A range of resources to support you to build your student's understanding of these concepts, their skills and procedures. The resources incorporate a variety of teaching strategies.

A bit of a dicey problem

Students throw two regular, six-faced dice and discuss the chance of getting one particular result rather than any other.

The twelve-pointed star game

This game offers a good context in which students can explore possible outcomes and think systematically about what scores are possible.

Which when?

Students investigate probabilities using a spinner and then compare experimental results with expectations.

The foul food maker: go figure

Students explain how the use of simple words can describe the likelihood of everyday events.

Statistics-and-probability: F-9

This resource provides background information and sample lessons.

Dressing in the dark

This problem solving activity has a statistics focus

Relevant assessment tasks and advice related to this topic.

By the end of Year 4, students are ordering events or the outcomes of chance experiments in terms of likelihood and identifying whether events are independent or dependent.

Mathematics Year 4 – ACARA

Refer to Work sample 12, Statistics and probability: one minute challenge, to assess students’ understanding of probability.

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Probability Worksheets

Navigate through this assortment of printable probability worksheets that includes exercises on basic probability based on more likely, less likely, equally likely, certain and impossible events, pdf worksheets based on identifying suitable events, simple spinner problems, for students in grade 4, grade 5, and grade 6. With the required introduction, the beginners get to further their knowledge with skills like probability on single coin, two coins, days in a week, months in a year, fair die, pair of dice, deck of cards, numbers and more. Mutually exclusive and inclusive events, probability on odds and other challenging probability worksheets are useful for grade 7, grade 8, and high school. Grab some of these probability worksheets for free!

Probability on Coins

Simple probability worksheets based on tossing single coin or two coins. Identify the proper sample space before finding probability.

Probability in a single coin toss

Probability in pair of coin - 1

Probability in pair of coin - 2

Probability on Days and Months

Fun filled worksheet pdfs based on days in a week and months in a year. Sample space is easy to find but care is required in identifying like events.

Days of a week

Months of a year - 1

Months of a year - 2

Probability on Fair Die

Fair die is numbered from 1 to 6. Understand the multiples, divisors and factors and apply it on these probability worksheets.

Simple numbers

Multiples and divisors

Mutually exclusive and inclusive

Probability on Pair of Dice

Sample space is little large which contains 36 elements. Write all of them in papers before start answering on probability questions for grade 7 and grade 8.

Based on numbers

Based on sum and difference

Based on multiples and divisors

Based on factors

Probability on Numbers

Students should learn the concepts of multiples, divisors and factors before start practicing these printable worksheets.

Probability on numbers - 1

Probability on numbers - 2

Probability on numbers - 3

Probability on numbers - 4

Probability on numbers - 5

Probability on Deck of Cards

Deck of cards contain 52 cards, 26 are black, 26 are red, four different flowers, each flower contain 13 cards such as A, 1, 2, ..., 10, J, Q, K.

Deck of cards worksheet - 1

Deck of cards worksheet - 2

Deck of cards worksheet - 3

Probability on Spinners

Interactive worksheets for 4th grade and 5th grade kids to understand the probability using spinners. Colorful spinners are included for more fun.

Spinner worksheets on numbers

Spinner worksheets on colors

Probability on Odds

Probability on odds worksheets can be broadly classifieds as favorable to the events or against the events.

Odds worksheet - 1

Odds worksheet - 2

Odds worksheet - 3

Probability on Independent and Dependent

Here comes our challenging probability worksheets set for 8th grade and high school students based on dependent and independent events with various real-life applications.

Based on deck of cards

Based on marbles

Based on cards

Probability on Different Events

Basic probability worksheets for beginners in 6th grade and 7th grade to understand the different type of events such as more likely, less likely, equally likely and so on.

Balls in container

Identify suitable events

Mutually inclusive and exclusive events

Related Worksheets

» Permutation

» Combination

» Permutation and Combination

» Venn Diagram

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Probability

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Measuring the likelihood of an event

Probability is a measure of how likely an event will occur; a flipped coin has a 50% (or 1/2) probability of landing with its head up. In these exercises, students determine the probability of events by counting the number of ways an event can happen (the numerator) divided by the total number of possible outcomes. Note that this method only works if each different outcome is equally likely to happen at any time.

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The Improving Mathematics Education in Schools (TIMES) Project

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Assumed background from 1-3

Events used for some games of chance

Simple everyday events

• Some General Comments and Links From F-3 and Towards Year 5

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It is assumed that in Years 1-3, students have had many learning experiences that consider simple and familiar events involving chance, including describing possible outcomes and whether they are “likely”, “unlikely” with some being “certain” or “impossible”.

Statistics and statistical thinking have become increasingly important in a society that relies more and more on information and calls for evidence. Hence the need to develop statistical skills and thinking across all levels of education has grown and is of core importance in a century which will place even greater demands on society for statistical capabilities throughout industry, government and education.

Statistics is the science of variation and uncertainty. Concepts of probability underpin all of statistics, from handling and exploring data to the most complex and sophisticated models of processes that involve randomness. Statistical methods for analysing data are used to evaluate information in situations involving variation and uncertainty, and probability plays a key role in that process. All statistical models of real data and real situations are based on probability models. Probability models are at the heart of statistical inference, in which we use data to draw conclusions about a general situation or population of which the data can be considered randomly representative.

Probability is a measure, like length or area or weight or height, but a measure of the likeliness or chance of possibilities in some situation. Probability is a relative measure; it is a measure of chance relative to the other possibilities of the situation. Therefore, it is very important to be clear about the situation being considered. Comparisons of probabilities − which are equal, which are not, how much bigger or smaller − are therefore also of interest in modelling chance.

Where do the values of probabilities come from? How can we “find” values? We can model them by considerations of the situation, using information, making assumptions and using probability rules. We can estimate them from data. Almost always we use a combination of assumptions, modelling, data and probability rules.

The concepts and tools of probability pervade analysis of data. Even the most basic exploration and informal analysis involves at least some modelling of the data, and models for data are based on probability. Any interpretation of data involves considerations of variation and therefore at least some concepts of probability.

Situations involving uncertainty or randomness include probability in their models, and analysis of models often leads to data investigations to estimate parts of the model, to check the suitability of the model, to adjust or change the model, and to use the model for predictions.

Thus chance and data are inextricably linked and integrated throughout statistics. However, even though considerations of probability pervade all of statistics, understanding the results of some areas of data analysis requires only basic concepts of probability. The objectives of the chance and probability strand of the F-10 curriculum are to provide a practical framework for experiential learning in foundational concepts of probability for life, for exploring and interpreting data, and for underpinning later developments in statistical thinking and methods, including models for probability and data.

In this module, in the context of understanding chance in everyday life, we build on the preliminary concepts of chance of Years 1-3 to focus more closely on describing possible events in everyday situations, and comparing their chances of occurring but without assigning any values to such chances.

In describing possible events, we also identify everyday events where one cannot happen if the other happens, and, for contrast, everyday events where it is possible that two might both occur.

Where two events cannot both occur at once, the chance of one occurrence is completely affected by the occurrence of the other − there is no chance! Hence starting to consider the nature of everyday events also leads us to questions about other simple everyday events. Do we think the chance of one occurring will or will not be affected by the occurrence of another? Are there simple everyday situations in which we are prepared to assume that the chance of one occurring will not be affected by the occurrence of another?

The concepts are experienced through examples that consider situations familiar and accessible to Year 4 students and build on concepts introduced in 1-3.

Describing events

Before thinking about the chances of events, we need to identify and describe them clearly so that there is no confusion and anyone reading or hearing our description will be thinking of the events in the same way as us. Sometimes it is very easy to describe possible events and sometimes there is really only one way of describing them, but in many situations this is not so and careful description is therefore important.

Just thinking about how to describe weather shows how difficult it can be to describe some everyday events so that everyone knows what is meant. For example, if we say today is fine, do we mean sunny? Or do we mean no rain at all? When we say it rained today, do we mean at least some water fell, no matter how little? Or do we mean there was at least enough water fell to wet someone standing outside when it fell? Or do we mean rain fell for at least a certain amount of time during the day? Or do we mean at least a certain amount of rain fell? When we say it rained in Sydney, do we mean it rained for at least a certain amount (of time or rain) everywhere in Sydney? Or that it rained in at least one part of Sydney?

The weather − especially rain! − is far too difficult. So we will consider simpler situations, starting with very simple situations that are part of games of chance, and then consider some simple everyday events.

In many games, such as board games, moves are decided by the chance throws of dice or spins of spinners.

Example A: Throwing dice

Many board games use throws of one or two dice to give how many places to move or what choice is to be made. The usual single die has 6 sides, with each side having a number of marks giving its face value of one of the values 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6. So the outcomes of a throw or toss of a single die are very simple to describe and there is really no other way of describing the outcome as the face value of the uppermost face when the die lands, and hence the possible events as the set of numbers 1,…6. In some games what matters is whether the uppermost face has an even or odd value, but these are just groupings of the basic events.

Many board games use throws of two dice. Again it is simple to describe the basic outcomes of throws of a pair of dice, whether they are tossed together or one after the other. The basic events are pairs of numbers, where each number is the face value of the uppermost face of one of the dice. If the dice are different colours, for example red and blue, then the basic events are the pairs of numbers 1 on red, 1 on blue; 1 on red, 2 on blue; 2 on red, 1 on blue; etc. If the dice look exactly the same, then the basic events are 1’s on both; 1 on one and 2 on the other; 1 on one and 3 on the other; 2 on both; etc. Many board games only use the sum of the uppermost face values from throwing a pair of dice. Again there is no difficulty in describing the possible events and they are made up of groups of the basic events, whether the dice are different or identical.

Example B: Spinners

Some games, including board and other games, use spinners to give players their next moves. When spun around its pivot, the arrow of the spinner comes to rest on a segment of a circle. Usually the different segments are in different colours, so the basic events of a single spin are the colours used for the different segments.

Below are some everyday situations and aspects of them in which it is fairly easy to describe the possible events.

Example C: What colour sweet did you get?

Suppose you have a small box of different coloured sweets, such as M&M’s or Smarties. You give one to your friend by shaking one out of the box onto your friend’s hand. The possible events here are the possible colours of the sweet that lands in your friend’s hand.

Example D: Which type of muffin is first to be finished?

Your teacher organises a muffin morning tea for which half a dozen muffins of each of 7 types (e.g. chocolate, berry, white chocolate, vanilla, butterscotch, apple, cinnamon). The possible events for the type of muffin that is finished first are these 7 flavours.

Example E: Where does your newspaper land?

Many people living in towns or cities arrange for their newspaper to be delivered. Usually this is done by someone driving around the streets and throwing rolled and covered newspapers into the front of people’s places. What are the possible landing places for the newspaper? We could describe these as simply on the footpath or inside the property, or we could describe the possible landing places as footpath, road, driveway, lawn, garden. Some students might wish to distinguish between roadway and gutter. Notice also that driveways go over footpaths, so we would need to be clear in our description of landing place.

Example F: How many children in a family?

What are the possible numbers of children in a family? 0, 1, 2, 3, ……. This might seem simple at first but there are some aspects that need clarification. Are we considering families with at least one child? What do we mean by a family? How do we allow for half-siblings and step-siblings? This is an everyday situation that seems very simple on the surface but needs a lot of discussion and careful description. Would it be easier to describe number of children living in a household?

Example G: How late is my bus?

Some bus stops have designated arrival times in timetables and, of course, buses that travel between towns or localities have identified arrival times. We can measure how late a bus is in arriving by the length of time in minutes it actually arrives after its designated arrival time. So what do people mean when they say their bus was late? They usually do not mean that the bus arrived at any time after its designated time. We could decide that we would describe a bus as arriving late if it arrived more than 5 minutes after its designated arrival time, and very late if it arrived more than 10 minutes after its arrival time. But notice that this would not be especially relevant if the bus had come from a long distance. If we are considering the situation of the bus’ arrival, we would also need to consider early and on time arrivals, and again would need to decide what we mean by on time. Do we need to allow for the possibility of the bus not arriving at all? If not, we need to say that we are considering the possibilities for time of arrival of the bus, assuming it does arrive.

Which events are more likely to occur?

We cannot measure probability the way we can measure length, weight or time. We choose or assign probabilities. In doing so, we consider carefully the nature of the situation, and use any information we might have, including information from data. But whatever knowledge about the situation or information from data that we might have, we are ALWAYS making assumptions when we choose or assign probabilities. Some of the fundamental questions that we might consider before assigning or choosing probabilities are which events could be assumed to be equally likely? Which events could be assumed to be more likely than others?

These questions are considered for the examples above.

In throwing one die, there are 6 possible outcomes. Are any of the faces more likely to come up than any others? A fair die is one for which it is assumed that the 6 faces are equally-likely to be uppermost in a toss of the die. If one or more faces are more likely to come up than others, the die is called a “loaded” die.

We can’t ever be sure that a die is completely fair. We can assume a die is fair. We could conduct a data investigation to investigate if a die is fair.

Many games use tossing a pair of dice. The possible events when a pair of dice are tossed are the pairs of numbers that are on the uppermost faces. If both dice are fair, do we think any pairs of numbers are more likely than others? The situation is easier to consider when the two dice are different colours, so we will just consider the simple case of having a red die and a blue die and that they are both fair. Do we think that all possible pairs of numbers are equally-likely? If we do, are we making any more assumptions?

If a spinner is well-constructed so that the arrow spins smoothly around its centre, what will affect the colour or part of the spinner board on which it lands in a single spin? Suppose we have the spinner in the picture below and the arrow spins smoothly. Which colour do you think the arrow is most likely to land on? Which do you think is least likely?

If we think blue is most likely, and green is least likely, then we need to ask ourselves why we think this. We are saying that the bigger the section of colour, then the more likely is the spinner to land on it. We are saying that when the spinner spins smoothly, and is spun sufficiently that it doesn’t matter where the spinner started, then the larger portions of card are more likely than the smaller portions.

We now consider the possibilities of some simple everyday situations as described in the above examples.

Example C: What colour sweet is most likely?

Suppose you have a small box of different coloured sweets, such as M&M’s or Smarties. You give one to your friend by shaking one out of the box onto your friend’s hand. Of the possible colours, which is your friend most likely to get?

Suppose you have previously tipped the sweets out and know that there are 9 red, 8 yellow, 5 brown, 5 purple and 2 blue. You put the sweets back in the box, shake the, and tip one out. Which colour do you think it is most likely to be? If you think red, this is because you are thinking that there are most reds so there’s a greater chance of getting a red. Notice that − as you will know from doing this! − it won’t necessarily be a red − it’s just that there’s more chance of getting a red because there are more of them.

What’s the next most likely? Using the same assumption, it would be yellow. Brown and purple would be next and they’d be equally-likely. Blue is the least likely because there are only 2 blues.

Example D: Which type of muffin is most likely to be first to be finished?

Which of 7 types of muffins is most likely to run out of first? The most popular one! But how do we know which is most popular? We would need to collect data to get some information on popularity of types of muffins. We could do a survey amongst school students or perhaps ask a muffin shop. But we need to remember that a muffin shop would be giving answers for all their customers, and general favourite types of muffins might not be quite the same as those for Year 4 students.

Example E: What is the most likely place to find your newspaper in the morning?

To consider where the newspaper might land requires thinking not only of the possibilities and how large the various areas are, but also about what’s easiest for the driver throwing the paper, and whether he or she is trying to throw it somewhere in particular, such as the driveway. Even if we decide the driver doesn’t try to land it on a particular type of area, it is more likely to land at distances or on areas where it is easier to throw. So if a house has a large expanse of driveway, some lawn and very little garden area at the front of the house, then it is a reasonable assumption that the driveway is the most likely landing place, with the lawn second. But this will also depend on the throwing style of the paper deliverer, and possibly also on the type of road.

What can we say about which are more likely of the possible numbers of children in a family? There are more likely to be 2 or 3 than 6, and the chance of 10 or more would be small, but we cannot say much more than vague statements like that without information − information from data.

Buses are required not to leave certain bus stops before the times given on the timetable, so generally speaking, buses are more likely to be late than early. We are probably fairly safe to say that being up to 5 minutes late is more likely than being more than 5 minutes late. But, as in Example F, there is little more we can say about chances in this situation without information from observations and data. .

Which events cannot happen together? For which events is there a chance they will happen together?

To see which events can or cannot happen together requires only consideration of the events themselves; that is, probabilities do not need to be considered. When we are describing possible everyday events, we do not have to describe them so that they cannot happen together, although it can often be convenient to do this. Sometimes, if enough care has not been taken in the description of possible events, some unintentional overlap in the description of possible events might cause some confusion.

The above examples are now considered to see which events cannot happen if others do.

In the toss of one die, clearly only one face can be uppermost. So only one of the numbers 1, 2,..,6 can occur. If one of these numbers occur in tossing a die, none of the others can.

A spinner works by dividing up the circle into segments. There is no overlap of segments so the arrow can point to only one segment for a single spin. If red is the outcome of the spin, no other colour can occur. Indeed, the spinner is designed for games so that the outcome of a spin gives one and only one result. Unless there is no overlap of outcomes, the spinner is not much use for games!

What about the boundary between the segments? Although a magnifying glass may be able to detect which segment the arrow is in when it appears to point to the boundary line between them, it might be more sensible to decide that, if the arrow stops on a boundary line, the colour to the left of that line is taken as the selected colour.

When you give a sweet to your friend by shaking one out of the box onto your friend’s hand, the outcome is the colour of the sweet so there can be only one colour. So if it is red, no other colour is possible. Note that if two sweets come out of the box, it is a different situation; we are considering only the situation of a single sweet coming out of the box.

With many students choosing muffins at once, it might appear that a tie could happen and two types of muffins could be finished first. Genuine ties almost never happen as mostly “ties” are due to limitations of timing instruments. However this shows that this situation might need more careful description. For example, are the students coming one by one to choose their muffin? Or are we going to say which type is finished first within the space of 1 second of each other?

Notice that these types of situations in which observation depends on the definition of exactly when the event is considered to happen (such as choosing a muffin) and on the accuracy of timing devices, occur in collecting data from queueing situations.

If we describe the possible landing places as the footpath, road, driveway, lawn, garden, then the paper could be on the part of the driveway that is on the footpath. It could be on the part of the grass (lawn) that is on the footpath. There could even be garden on the footpath! Does this mean we should describe the possible landing places so that they do not overlap? Not necessarily - it’s OK to describe the possible events without insisting there is no overlap.

The possible numbers of children in a family are 0, 1, 2, 3, ……. So it is not possible to have exactly 2 children and exactly 3 children. But it is worth looking at this situation again. What might be the most useful way of describing numbers of children in a family? From a planning viewpoint, it might be more useful to describe the possibilities as “at least ….. children in a family”. This also removes the awkwardness of deciding where to stop with the numbers. Often in everyday speech it is sometimes unclear whether people mean exactly or at least; for example, “there are 3 houses with dogs in that street” could mean “exactly 3 houses” or “at least 3 houses” or “to the best of my knowledge at least 3 houses”.

So if it is decided to describe the possible numbers of children in a family by “at least …”, then the possible events are at least 1, 2, 3, …. Notice that at least 0 is everything! In this case all the events have overlap with each other.

If the possible events for the arrival of a bus are described as more than 5 minutes early, up to 5 minutes early, on time, up to 5 minutes late, and more than 5 minutes late, then these events have no overlap provided the cut-off times are identified. For example, what is meant by on time? These events are meant to take the time of arrival of the bus and divide it into non-overlapping intervals. So this situation is like the spinner, where the area of the circle is divided into non-overlapping segments. Like the spinner, just the accuracy or allocation of the measurement on the boundaries between the segments needs to be identified.

Is the chance of an event happening affected or not affected by the occurrence of another?

Assuming that the chance of an event happening is not affected by the occurrence of another is one of the BIG assumptions across all of statistical modelling and analysis of data. Investigating this assumption is also one of the big challenges of data analysis. We almost always have to make the assumption based on considering what is reasonable in the situation we are considering − which is yet another reason why we need to carefully and clearly describe any situation that involves any kind of random variation.

Here we will make a small start on considering this concept by considering the above simple scenarios involved in games or everyday situations, and some simple extensions of them.

Firstly, notice in all the above examples in which if one event happens then the others cannot, that the chance of an event happening is most definitely affected by the occurrence of another, because it can’t happen! So if we get a 4 on a die, we can’t get anything else. If the spinner lands on red, we can’t get another colour. If there are exactly 2 children in a family, then there are not 3 children in that family. If the bus is early then it’s not late. If a sweet is red, then it’s not any other colour.

That is, in Examples A, B, C, F, and G above, the chance of ANY of the events happening if another occurs is ZERO because none of the others can happen. And for Examples D and E, this will also be the case if we do not allow ties in Example D, and if we distinguish in Example E between driveway (or grass) on the footpath and driveway (or grass) not on the footpath.

So in Example D, if we allow ties − that is, more than one type of muffin could be finished first − do we have a situation where the occurrence of one event is not affected by the occurrence of another? If the white chocolate muffins are finished first, does this affect the chance that the butterscotch muffins are also finished at the same time as the white chocolate ones? We can only assume that it does or does not − we do not know. Do you think it will?

In Example E, if the event landing on the driveway includes the part of the driveway that crosses the footpath, do you think that if the newspaper lands on the driveway, then this affects the chance that it lands on the footpath? That is, if the newspaper lands on the driveway do you think it is more likely to be on the footpath than if it doesn’t land on the driveway? Again, we don’t know; all we can do is say what we think, and say what we assume.

What about the variation of Example F, in which we consider the possible events of a family having at least different numbers of children? Part of this is easier to some extent, because if a family has at least 3 children then they definitely have at least 2. But what about if a family has at least 2 children? Do you think that having at least 2 children affects or doesn’t affect the chance of having at least 3?

So all of the examples above are either completely trivial because if one event happens the others can’t, or all we can do is have interesting discussions about them.

So we will consider a couple of examples based on the above ones, in which it is possible to have two events both happen but slightly easier to consider if the chance of one happening is affected or not by the other happening.

In some games of chance, moves are determined by tossing two dice. So let’s do this by tossing a die twice. Do you think that the chance of a six on the second toss is affected by what we get on the first toss? Not if we toss randomly. So here we can say that, provided we are tossing a die randomly, we can assume that the chance of getting various numbers on the second toss is not affected by what happens on the first toss.

Let’s consider doing two spins − one after the other. Do you think the chance of red on the second spin is affected by the result of the first spin? How do you think the spinning should be done so that we can assume that what happens on the first spin does not affect what happens on the second spin? We would want the spinner to operate in a smooth way, and we would want each spin to be a good spin- that is, not a half-hearted spin. If this is the case, we would be inclined to be comfortable with assuming that the first spin outcome does not affect the second spin out come. For example, the chance of getting red on the second spin is not affected by getting red on the first spin. If you are not completely happy with this assumption, you need to think why you are not. It is not because red is the dominant colour and hence the most likely colour for the spinner to land on. This just means that on any spin, red is the most likely outcome. What we are considering here is if this (greatest) chance of landing on red is the same on the second spin no matter what we get on the first spin.

You shake out a single sweet from your box for your friend. You then shake out another sweet for yourself. Is the chance of your getting a red sweet affected by the colour of the sweet your friend got? Yes, because that first sweet is no longer in the box so there is one less sweet of that colour. What about if you put the first sweet back in the box before you shake out another sweet? (This is not something you would do but it’s just for comparison). Provided you give the box a good shake in between, the colour of the first sweet you got (& then put back) would not affect the colour of the second sweet you get because the situation is exactly the same. But only if you give the box a good shake before shaking out the second sweet.

Example E: Where does your newspaper land today & tomorrow?

If your newspaper lands in your garden today, do you think there is the same chance that it will land in your garden tomorrow? This doesn’t just depend on whether the delivery person is aiming for a certain area, but on whether they change what they do tomorrow because it landed in the garden today. So the assumption here that the chance of the paper landing in the garden tomorrow is not affected by where it landed today, is assuming that the delivery person follows the same routine each day and doesn’t let what happens today affect the way they throw it tomorrow.

If your bus is late arriving today, will this change the chance that it is late arriving tomorrow? Notice this has nothing to do with whether your bus tends to arrive late − it’s to do with whether what happens today affects what happens tomorrow. Perhaps if the morning traffic is bad this morning, lots of people might leave earlier tomorrow morning and this would change the situation tomorrow morning. On the other hand, buses using bus lanes and busways might not be affected by motorists’ decisions to leave earlier or not.

some general comments and links from F-3 and towards year 5

From Years 1-3, students have gradually developed understanding and familiarity with simple and familiar events involving chance, including possible outcomes and whether they are “likely”, “unlikely” with some being “certain” or “impossible”. They have seen variation in results of simple chance experiments. In Year 4, they consider more carefully how to describe possible outcomes of simple situations involving games of chance or familiar everyday outcomes. Without assigning any values for probabilities, they consider how the probabilities of possible outcomes could compare with each other. They also consider simple everyday events that cannot happen together and, in comparison, some that can. If events cannot both happen, then most definitely, if one happens there is no chance the other can. This helps students start to think about simple situations in which it is reasonable to assume that the occurrence of one event does not affect or change the chance of occurrence of another event.

In Year 5, consideration of the possible outcomes of simple situations leads to assigning equal probabilities in some of these, understanding what the values of these probabilities must be and representing these values using fractions.

The Improving Mathematics Education in Schools (TIMES) Project 2009-2011 was funded by the Australian Government Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations.

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the Australian Government Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations.

© The University of Melbourne on behalf of the International Centre of Excellence for Education in Mathematics (ICE-EM), the education division of the Australian Mathematical Sciences Institute (AMSI), 2010 (except where otherwise indicated). This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/

The first activity is used to see if students have any misconceptions regarding the use of common chance terms. The second task is encouraging students to begin to record all the possible outcomes of a chance experiment and use this information to begin to predict the likelihood of different outcomes.

• Order chance terms and events according to their likelihood
• Match familiar chance events to their likelihood
• List all the possible outcomes from a simple chance experiment
• Predict the likelihood of an experiment based on the possible outcomes
• Use chance terms to describe the likelihood of simple chance experiments
• Explain the variation in results (i.e. compare predicted to observed results)

Curriculum Connections: Victorian Curriculum F-10 – Statistics & Probability

• Conduct chance experiments, identify and describe possible outcomes and recognise variation in results  (VCMSP147)
• Describe possible everyday events and order their chances of occurring  (VCMSP175)
• List outcomes of chance experiments involving equally likely outcomes and represent probabilities of those outcomes using fractions  (VCMSP203)
• Recognise that probabilities range from 0 to 1  (VCMSP204)

At the end of this lesson students should be able to answer the following questions:

• Can you order the chance terms in order of likelihood?
• Can you match the events to the appropriate chance term?
• Can you think of any other events that match each term?
• Can you assign a probability to each event (i.e. a number value)?
• Which horse do you believe is the most likely to win? Why?
• What outcomes can you get from rolling 2-dice?
• How can we list all the outcomes in a systematic way?
• Can we use numbers to describe these outcomes?
• Which number is most likely to be the total? Why?
• Why does the mathematical (or theoretical) chance not always match the results?

For more information, please download the attached lesson plan .

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Problem-solving strategies and skills — Statistics and chance — Year 4

• Format: Box sets
• Series: Problem-solving strategies and skills
• Code: RIC-6160 | ISBN-9781925431650
• Subject: Mathematics
• Level: Year 4

Description

Problem-solving is a vital skill that students need to develop from a young age. By using our new Problem-solving strategies and skills series, students will develop strategies to solve:

• differentiated math-related word problems
• logic problems
• spatial reasoning problems and patterning problems

Core concepts in each Statistics and chance box:

• finding possible outcomes
• probability
• data represented in column graphs, line graphs, tables, pictographs, pie charts and other forms
• 3 boxes per year level (18 in total) —Number and algebra, Measurement and geometry, Statistics and chance
• 30 unique cards in each box
• extension problem on the back of each card for differentiation
• a variety of problem-solving questions including: word problems, logic problems, visual problems, rules and patterns, and finding all possibilities
• problem-solving strategy icons on each card as visual reminders for students
• an explanation card of how to use the cards
• an explanation card of the strategy icons

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Maths Problem Solving Cards Year 4 - Statistics and Chance from Hope Education

Product code: G1593880

Product Description

Practise and perfect your problem solving with Maths Problem Solving Cards Year 4 – Statistics and Chance from Hope Education. These helpful, little cards provide a wide variety of intriguing, motivating and thought-provoking activities, empowering every pupil to become a problem solver.

This set of Maths Problem Solving Cards Year 4 – Statistics and Chance comes complete with 30 unique and detailed problem cards. In addition to this, each pack includes a problem solving process card and a problem solving strategies card to guide and support pupils as they progress. Each individual card displays a mathematic word problem to solve, accompanied by a colourful illustration, as well as an extension activity for pupils who require an extra level of challenge! Ideal for supporting learners to investigate varied, real-life situations in a mathematic context, these cards will solve all your problems!

What’s in the Box?

• 1 x pack of 30 Statistics and Chance problem cards (Year 4)

Reasons to Love

• Maths Problem Solving Cards Year 4 – Statistics and Chance work brilliantly as an instant lesson extension or ‘busy activity’, particularly for pupils who are working at a Greater Depth level in Maths and require higher-level thinking opportunities.
• This resource is a fantastic way to ensure that learners have access to challenging problem solving opportunities in Maths lessons, reducing overreliance on fluency and reasoning activities.
• These cards provide a multitude of opportunities for pupils to practise mathematic concepts that have been taught in class in a new context, supporting the development of independent learning skills along the way.

Learning Outcomes

• Use to complement your teaching on Statistics throughout Year 4. These cards incorporate concepts such as bar charts and time graphs as well as comparison, sum and difference problems.

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Year 4 Money Challenges Solving Money Problems

Welcome to our Year 4 Money Challenges page. Here you will find our selection of printable money problem worksheets to help your child learn to use their money skills to solve a range of problems.

These challenges are a great resource as an extension for more able pupils, or to consolidate and extend learning.

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Year 3 Money Learning

Knowing how to handle and calculate with money is a very important life-skill.

During Year 3, children build on their knowledge and skills they have achieved during Year 2.

By the time children reach the end of Year 3, they should be able to:-

• use decimal notation for amounts of money, e.g. £3.27
• change amounts in £ to amounts in pence and back;
• count money up to £10;
• calculate change for amounts of money up to £1 mentally;
• solve simple problems involving money;
• use informal methods to add and subtract money amounts in £ and pence.

Our worksheets will support your child with these objectives.

Year 4 Money Challenges Information

The following worksheets involve solving challenges involving money amounts. They are a great way to consolidate and extend money learning once children are confident with counting money amounts.

The challenges start off at a fairly easy level with problems that involve lower value coins and smaller money amounts. The challenges later on involve more complex problems with larger values to calculate.

If you are teaching a class or group of children, then these sheets should give you some great differentiated learning activities with a money theme.

An answer sheet is available for each challenge provided.

The money challenges in each section are carefully graded, allowing you to introduce concepts at an easier level before introducing harder work, or differentiate within your class.

Using the sheets in this section will help your child to:

• count money in coins;
• develop their reasoning and thinking skills;
• solve problems involving money.

All the money worksheets in this section will help your child to become more confident with money, and develop better problem solving skills.

These problems and challenges build on our Year 3 Money Challenges .

Year 4 Money Challenges Worksheets

There are 3 challenges - Tyger's Money Square Challenge, Row of Coins Challenge and How Much Money Challenge.

Each main challenge has several versions which start with the easiest level and progress onto harder levels of challenge.

Row of Coins Challenges

• Row of Coins Challenge 4:1
• PDF version
• Row of Coins Challenge 4:2

Tyger's Money Square Challenges

• Tyger's Money Square Challenge 4:1
• Tyger's Money Square Challenge 4:2
• Tyger's Money Square Challenge 4:3

How Much Money Challenges

• How Much Money Challenge 4:1
• How Much Money Challenge 4:2

Match the Coins

• Match the Coins 4:1
• Match the Coins 4:2

Extension Activity Ideas

If you are looking for a way to extend learning with the How Much Money challenge, why not...

Try playing 'How Much Money' in pairs.

One person chooses 2 or 3 coins and the other person has to ask questions which involve 'yes' or 'no' answers.

To make the game more interesting, have a maximum of 5 questions before you make a guess!

Looking for some more UK money worksheets?

We also have some counting money worksheets with amounts up to £1 or £5.

The sheets are at a more basic level than those on this page.

• Free UK Money Worksheets Coins up to £1
• Year 3 Money Worksheets Coins up to £5
• Year 3 Money Challenges

More Recommended Math Worksheets

Take a look at some more of our worksheets similar to these.

Money Riddles

These puzzles are a great money starter activity to get children thinking and puzzling out which the correct answer is out of a set number of choices. They are great for partner work too.

UK Money Riddles

If you are looking for some fun learning puzzles involving money, then look no further.

The puzzle sheets in this section are designed primarily for children in Years 3 and 4 who need to develop their problem solving skills and mathematical language.

Using these challenges will help your child to:

• apply their existing skills to puzzle out clues;
• understand money terminology;
• develop their thinking skills.
• Money Riddles for Kids (UK coins)

Money Column Addition Worksheets

Here you will find a selection of Column Addition Money sheets designed to help your child add different amounts of money.

Using these sheets will help your child to:

• add up a range of money amounts involving decimals.

The worksheets in this section are aimed at children in Years 4 and 5.

• Column Addition Money Worksheets (UK)

Money Column Subtraction Worksheets

Here you will find a selection of Column Subtraction Money sheets designed to help your child subtract different amounts of money.

• subtract a range of money amounts involving decimals.
• Column Subtraction Money Worksheets (UK)
• Counting Money Games

Here is our collection of counting money games for kids.

All of these games are suitable for kids aged from 1st grade and upwards.

Playing games is a great way to practice math skills in a fun way. Games also help to develop reasoning, thinking and memory.

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Word Problems Year 4: Fun And Engaging Activities For Your Class

Share this post, table of contents, word problems year 4 - act them out.

Rather than simply working out the problem, get your students to act out the problem! 

For example if your students are trying to work out this word problem: cinema tickets are £6 and 8 people are going. 

How much did they pay altogether? You could print out 8 cinema tickets and have students work in a group to figure out the cost (8 students are going to the cinema and 1 person is the cashier). 

This is a fun opportunity for your class to do some acting as well as learning how to work out year 4  word problems!

Use Manipulatives

Using manipulatives is a really effective way of getting your students to visualise the word problem that they’re trying to solve. 

Students can use anything from counters to pens! 

Using manipulatives is always fun for students as they get to use fun tools like counters or building blocks – so the activity almost feels like play! 

This gets students engaged in solving year 4 word problems!

Creating Word Problems

Why not get your students to create their own year 4 word problems? 

This activity allows your pupils to get creative and write their own problems! This way they can clearly see how word problems work and therefore will find it easier to solve them in the future. 

The students can then swap word problems with their classmates and solve each other’s work. This could then involve some peer assessment where your students will mark the questions that they created!

Make Some Silly Word Problems

Making up some silly word problems is a simple but fantastic way of engaging your students with this topic! 

Whilst regular word problems may seem like a boring task for students, sillier problems may motivate them a little more to get learning! 

Children love a chance to have some silly fun in the classroom, so this will help them to build a positive relationship with year 4 word problems.

Some Example Silly Word Problems – Year 4:

•  The teacher ate 34 muffins for breakfast and 57 muffins for lunch. How many muffins did they eat before dinner?
• There were 38 dancing beans jumping around. 7 more jumping beans joined the dance party. How many dancing beans were there altogether?
• There were 280 flowers growing in a field. A group of girl scouts came and picked 3/4 of them. How many flowers were left?        Some more silly word problems can be found here .

Think - Pair - Share

Getting students to pair up and work together to solve year 4  word problems is a really effective learning technique for this topic. 

Think – Pair – Share gives pupils the opportunity to work through problems at their own pace and explain what they think the answer is to another student. 

Students will initially think about the problem independently, then pair up and share their ideas with their partner! Explaining the solving process is really important to understanding word problems.

Student Becomes The Teacher

(I would recommend getting volunteers for this as not all students are comfortable at the front of the class!)

Why not get your students up to the front of the class to explain and work through some year 4 word problems? 

As mentioned earlier, it is extremely beneficial for pupils to explain the process of solving the word problem as it can really increase their understanding. 

Another great benefit of this is that it may help other students who are listening to their peers explain the problem solving process! Hearing explanations from a different perspective than the teacher can often be what makes the topic click!

Using Pupils' Names

Incorporating students’ names into the word problems that they’re solving is a really fun method of engaging them in the content. 

Children love when their name appears in a paper or even a book you may be reading, so this is guaranteed to be effective in your classroom! 

A fun activity could be writing one word problem for each student which has their name in it. Each student would then solve their own personalised word problem! 

This is an easy way of getting students engaging with year 4 word problems!

Draw Pictures

Why not try to make year 4 word problems a little more creative? 

Some students require visuals to really understand what they’re solving. So, get your students to draw out the problem that they’re working out!

For example, if your class is trying to work out how many books are on 3 shelves, they can draw out three shelves with the books on and count them! This shows they the problem and helps them to see what it is that they are solving.

Daily Word Problem

Getting students used to year 4 word problems is really vital to their understanding! Having them consistently complete word problems is an effective way of ensuring that they won’t forget how to solve word problems. Why not introduce a daily word problem? Get their brains warmed up in the morning by giving them their daily word problem!

A great way to keep students familiar with this style of question is to incorporate word problems into different topics, such as fractions!

Emile is an excellent game-based online resource for primary schools! 

Children will love playing on Emile and will be beyond excited to play the engaging and educational games! 

With the assess, practise and achieve model, Emile is sure to allocate the right work for each individual! 

Get your students learning year 4 word problems effectively with Emile today by requesting a demo!

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Chemistry Education Research and Practice

Metacognitive problem solving: exploration of students’ perspectives through the lens of multi-dimensional engagement.

Solving chemical problems entails content knowledge and mastery of problem-solving processes. However, students sometimes lack metacognitive processes required for problem solving in chemistry. This study investigated how first-year chemistry students engaged with the metacognitive problem-solving scaffold Goldilocks Help. Data was collected from an activity, which involved students reflectively comparing their problem-solving attempts to an expert solution. These comparative reflections (N = 373) were thematically analysed to investigate scaffold engagement in three dimensions: cognitive, emotional, and behavioural. Finding showed that scaffold use, coupled with self-reflection, allowed students to identify flaws in their solutions that were either problem specific or related to their problem-solving skills. Students were able to propose improvement strategies, such as posing prompting questions to themselves and finding multiple alternatives for evaluating an answer. Students, who initially lacked structured problem-solving skills, found that scaffolding helped them to slow down metacognitive processes that would otherwise be rushed through or engaged with on a surface level. Students’ resistance to the scaffold was due to fear of making a mistake or viewing the scaffold as requiring extra time and effort. Within a semester, many students demonstrated an improvement in successful and structured problem solving but some required more practice to internalise the scaffold. Our findings also indicated that students’ reflections on problem solving became more sophisticated as a result of continued exposure to the scaffold and iterative opportunities to compare their work to expert solutions, to self-assess, and to reflect. Further research on reflective writing in chemistry education should focus on the ipsative nature of such assessments, i.e. processes focussing on students’ own progress, growth, and improvement, compared to their previous performance, while recognising the power relations operationalised in course-embedded reflections. From the teaching practice perspective, having an awareness of students’ thoughts, emotions, and actions can help instructors differentiate between levels of student capabilities, mindsets, and needs for extra support, allowing teaching efforts to be directed at promoting metacognitive and structured problem solving.

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K. Vo, M. Sarkar, P. J. White and E. Yuriev, Chem. Educ. Res. Pract. , 2024, Accepted Manuscript , DOI: 10.1039/D4RP00096J

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