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Original research article, perspectives on the 12 january 2020 taal volcano eruption: an analysis of residents’ narrative accounts.

• 1 Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology-Department of Science and Technology (DOST-PHIVOLCS), Quezon City, Philippines
• 2 Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology-Department of Science and Technology (DOST-PHIVOLCS), Buco, Talisay, Batangas, Philippines

This study reconstructs the 12 January 2020 Taal Volcano eruption through the analysis of narratives from two perspectives: those of the Taal Volcano Island (TVI) residents and those living along the Taal Caldera Lakeshore (TCLS). Personal accounts of TVI residents provide an up-close look at the volcano’s behavior from the day before the eruption to the escalation of volcanic activity until the early morning after the eruption. These also include information on individual actions that helped lead to community evacuation. The decisions and resulting actions of TVI residents highlight the importance of alertness to observations of changing volcano behavior (environmental cues) based on local knowledge and long-established communication between the monitoring agency and the residents who had trust in the received warning message during the unfolding event. These paved the way for the quick action of the residents to evacuate at the most critical time. Interviews of eyewitnesses from TCLS on the other hand suggest a spectator’s first reaction to watching the motorized outrigger boats as TVI residents evacuated (social cues), waiting before taking action to evacuate themselves. While various information and education efforts were conducted in the years leading to the 2020 event, the lack of experiential knowledge among the lakeshore residents and the fact that Taal did not have any major eruption in more than 40 years mainly contributed to their hesitancy to immediately evacuate, and not until the eruption occurred.

1 Introduction

This work presents the sequence of events and actions based on eyewitnesses’ accounts of the 12 January 2020 Taal Volcano eruption from two perspectives: those of the Taal Volcano Island (TVI) residents and those along Taal Caldera Lakeshore (TCLS) ( Figures 1A,B ). Personal accounts of TVI residents and interviews with TCLS residents provide an up-close look and a spectator’s first reaction, respectively, to the volcano’s behavior from the day before the eruption to the escalation of volcanic activity until the early morning after the eruption. This study explores the experiences of individuals faced with an escalating volcanic event and their evacuation decision-making.

FIGURE 1 . Inset (A) location of Taal Volcano about 65 km south of Metro Manila. A closer look at (B) Taal Volcano Island (TVI) within the Taal Caldera and the municipalities and cities of Cavite and Batangas Provinces around the caldera. The 1965 Tabaro eruption site in the southwest flank is also indicated. Neighboring provinces (Cavite, Laguna, and Quezon) making up Region IVA to which Batangas Province belongs are also shown. Data sources: the base map is an interferometric synthetic aperture radar–digital terrain model (IfSAR-DTM) from NAMRIA, 2013; administrative boundaries are adopted from PSA, 2016.

Quantitative studies on understanding the perception and coping strategies of populations living on volcanoes with a history of destructive eruption have remained limited, for example, the work on Vesuvius ( Barberi et al., 2008 ; Carlino et al., 2008 ) and Campi Flegrei ( Ricci et al., 2013 ) both in Naples, Italy, and Popocatepetl, Mexico ( Lopez-Vasquez, 2009 ). For Vesuvius, a survey covered all towns around the volcano, and major findings indicate that the respondents had generally realistic views about the risk, including the recognition that an eruption with serious impacts was likely, which is a reason to worry about the threat. Despite this, there is still a lack of knowledge about the emergency plan and a lack of confidence in public officials among the respondents ( Barberi et al., 2008 ). Another study on Vesuvius focused on a smaller sample of students from three towns, and findings suggest that respondents have an accurate perception of the level of volcanic risks, but lack an understanding of the volcanic processes and related hazards ( Carlino et al., 2008 ). At Popocatepetl Volcano, Mexico, people exposed to volcanic hazards are faced with uncertainty but live with the risks as part of the daily condition to which they adapt (similar to those of the residents of TVI). The people living within the zone nearest to the volcano perceived volcanic risk as most worrisome, and a high percentage of these people who are exposed to the risk feel unprepared in case of an eruptive event and do not possess a coping strategy ( Lopez-Vasquez, 2009 ). The last major eruption of Campi Flegrei, Naples, was in CE1538. There were also episodes of seismic activity, and the most recent one was in 1982–1984. In the survey, most respondents mentioned crimes, traffic, trash, and unemployment as major issues faced by their community. While volcanic hazards were not spontaneously mentioned, when asked specific questions about volcanic risk, the survey results indicated that people believed that an eruption with serious impacts was likely ( Ricci et al., 2013 ).

One of the earliest works on evacuation decisions during volcanic eruptions identified that seeing the evidence of the threat, being advised by officials and relatives to leave, and seeing neighbors or relatives leave are the most critical factors cited for the decision to evacuate ( Perry, 1983 ). Case studies on decision-making and evacuation behaviors during actual volcanic unrest have been conducted for Karthala Volcano in Comoros ( Morin and Lavigne, 2009 ), Merapi ( Mei and Lavigne 2012 ; Mei et al., 2013 ), Kelut, ( De Belizal et al., 2012 ), Sinabung and Kelut ( Andreastuti et al., 2019 ), all in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano in the Philippines ( Martinez-Villegas et al., 2021 ). These studies looked at the relationships between preparedness and response of authorities and evacuation behaviors of residents. Regarding behaviors, decision-making, and evacuations, recent studies in volcanology recognize and highlight the role of knowledge gained from prior experiences and its importance as a factor that motivates preparedness and influences decision-making ( Barclay et al., 2019 ; Naismith et al., 2020 ; Bankoff et al., 2021 ).

Lechner and Rouleau (2019) studied the 2010 eruption of Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala, and found that factors affecting evacuation decisions include the respondents’ capabilities (health, physical safety, and having a safe place to go), official warning messages, and direct cues of an impending disaster. A similar type of work was carried out for the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland ( Bird and Gisladottir, 2018 ). Both works directly used the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) ( Lindell and Perry, 2012 ) as a theoretical perspective to understand the decision-making process and evacuation behaviors during volcanic unrest. It was pointed out that transmitted warnings or exposure to evacuation messages and environmental and social cues are the most important drivers of protective action decision-making.

Specific to the Taal January 2020 event, Prasetyo et al. (2021) conducted a quantitative survey that determined the relationship of identified factors affecting response action such as asset damage, eruption characteristics, disaster experience, socio-demographic characteristics, evacuation characteristics, and perceived severity using structural equation modeling (SEM). A related study by Kurata et al. (2022) determined the factors affecting preparedness beliefs among Filipinos on risks from Taal Volcano, and their findings showed that perceived risk proximity, media, and hazard knowledge have significant effects on perceived severity and vulnerability. In turn, perceived severity and vulnerability have a positive direct impact on perceived behavioral control, risk avoidance norms, and attitude toward the behavior. These were found to have direct significance to evacuation intention, preparedness behaviors, and beliefs. Lim et al. (2022) conducted modeling of evacuation behavior and planning for logistics focusing on one community (a barangay) in Talisay, Batangas, with evacuation decision and type of evacuation, the timing of evacuation, mode of evacuation, and destination as the main elements of evacuation logistics.

For this study, we aim to establish the sequence of events during January 2020 unrest and eruption, and then analyze individual observations and evacuation decision-making as a direct response in the face of an actual eruption. This is a significant contribution to understanding individual evacuation actions that lead to collective evacuation during a volcano crisis in the context of the Philippines setting.

2 Background

2.1 taal volcano’s past eruptions and unrest.

Taal Volcano Island (TVI) (14 o 0′ 36.8634″ N, 120 o 59’ 53.232” E) is located in Batangas Province, which is 65 km south of Manila ( Figure 1A ). A multi-vent island volcano, TVI is situated in the middle of the Taal Lake, which is confined within a 25 km × 30 km-wide volcano edifice known as the Taal Caldera (TC) ( Figure 1B ). Before the 12 January 2020 eruption, Taal Volcano had 33 known historical eruptions, 24 of which were confirmed based on a recent review of available documents ( Delos Reyes et al., 2018 ). The eruptions in 1749, 1754, 1911, and 1965 are categorized as violent with Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) between 3 and 5 ( Delos Reyes et al., 2018 ). These events produced pyroclastic density currents (base surges) that traveled over the Taal Lake, devastating the communities of Agoncillo and Laurel, located west of TVI (Ruelo, 1983). Both the 1754 and 1911 events occurred in the Taal Main Crater (TMC), while the 1965 event occurred at a new eruption site, Tabaro in the southwest of TVI ( Figure 1B ).

Since its last eruption in 1977, at least 20 episodes of unrest that did not culminate in eruptions have been documented ( Delos Reyes et al., 2018 ), for example, October–November 1987, August 1988, June–October 1989, March–July 1991, February 1992, April 1993, February 1994, September–November 2004, January–February 2005, November 2005, January–November 2006, and October 2017 to cite some. These were characterized by increased seismic activities, TMC temperatures, gas emissions, fissuring, and geyser activity, leading to an increase and decrease in the alert level status on several occasions. The latest unrest episode necessitated an increase of the alert level status to 1 on 28 March 2019.

In its history, major Taal eruptive events (e.g., 1754, 1911, and 1965) have forced people to leave the area. An example is the noted decrease in population following the 1754 event ( Maso, 1911 ); however, people eventually returned and inhabited not only the lakeshore but also TVI ( PHIVOLCS, 1992 ). The TVI population has continued to grow, from 1,830 inhabitants in 1977, to 3,628 in 1988, to more than 5,800 in March 1991 ( PHIVOLCS, 1992 ). By the time of the 2020 event, the population was estimated to be higher than 6,427, which was the recorded population in 2018 ( Batangas PDRRMC, 2018 ). In addition, Taal has become a popular tourist destination, and data on visitors from Talisay alone suggest that the number of visitors has increased from an annual count of 59,000 in 2011 ( Vista and Rosenberger, 2015 ) to 209,000 in 2019 (Talisay Municipality Tourism Office, communication 2022).

2.2 Local government structure, relevant laws, and disaster risk reduction for Taal Volcano

As per governance structure, the Philippines is divided into 81 provinces (political units, headed by the governor), and each province has a capital city and several municipalities (headed by a mayor). The general administrative reference to a province, city, or municipality is the local government unit (LGU, referring to province- and municipality/city-level political units). The governors and mayors are elected officials with a 3-year term, and LGUs have local autonomy. A city or municipality is further divided into smaller communities or village units called barangays , headed by an elected village chief referred to as kapitan . For the clusters of houses in TVI (that is under the responsibility of specific barangays), we also note the presence of unofficially elected but recognized community leaders. In addition, although provinces are divided and clustered to form the 17 regions of the Philippines, the regional-level organization is mostly responsible for the coordination of planning and delivery of national government services, rather than political-administrative jurisdiction. Batangas Province belongs to Region IVA composed of the provinces of Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Quezon ( Figure 1B ).

The enactment of the Philippine Disaster Law of 2010 or Republic Act (RA) 10121 on Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) ensured the creation of the Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office (PDRRMO, disaster management office); thus, the Batangas PDRRMO was established. The law mandates that all LGUs, in this case, the Batangas Provincial Government through its disaster management office, take the lead in preparing for, responding to, and recovering from the effects of any disaster. The Batangas disaster management office is responsible for the preparation of the Batangas Province Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plan and the Contingency Plan for Taal Volcano Eruption (CPTVE) (Batangas PDRRMC, 2017; Batangas PDRRMC, 2018 ). In the CPTVE, for each of the alert levels, the DRRMOs (local disaster management offices) have outlined actions to be undertaken ( Supplementary Table S1 ) such as initiating a response.

There are ten municipalities (Talisay, Laurel, Agoncillo, San Nicolas, Sana Teresita, Alitagtag, Cuenca, Lipa, Mataas na Kahoy, and Balete) and two cities (Tanauan and Lipa) of Batangas around Taal Caldera Lake. Each city/municipality LGU is also required to prepare a local city- or municipal-level DRRM Plan, and establish a DRRM office with a 24/7 Emergency Operations Center (EOC). For inter-province coordination purposes, there exists a Regional Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (RDRRMC), with the Regional Office of Civil Defense (ROCD) as chair of the council. The episodes of unrest between 1991 and 2019 prompted the conduct of information education activities in LGUs and the selection of pilot sites for community preparedness. The activities include the conduct of evacuation drills for LGUs in collaboration with local government agencies ( Supplementary Table S2 ).

In 1967, 2 years after the 1965 eruption, under Presidential Proclamation (PP) No. 235, Taal Volcano Island (TVI) was identified and declared “reserved for park site purposes” and stated that TVI is hereby “withdrawn from entry , sale , settlement , or other disposition and reserve for park site purposes under the administration of Parks and Wildlife . ” In 1992, another law RA 7586 was enacted creating the National Integrated Protected Areas System (NIPAS) followed by RA 7623 which declared Taal Volcano Island a tourist zone, and planning of tourism development and management of related activities became the joint jurisdiction of the Department of Tourism (DOT), the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), and the municipalities of Laurel, Balete, Agoncillo, San Nicolas, and Talisay. Presidential Proclamation (PP) No. 906 amended the 1967 PP No. 235, further defining the coverage of the protected area and creating the Taal Volcano Protected Landscape (TVPL). This facilitated planned and monitored tourism activities in the area. The organized tourism activities would also contribute to ensuring the safety of tourists on 12 January 2020 ( Supplementary Table S3 ).

2.3 PHIVOLCS, Taal Volcano hazard map for base surge and volcano alert level

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-PHIVOLCS, from hereon will be referred to as PHIVOLCS in this article) based in Quezon City (QC) is the national government agency mandated to study and monitor volcanoes, issue warnings, and operate and maintain the multi-parameter monitoring network of Taal Volcano ( Supplementary Figure S1 ). The Taal Volcano Observatory (TVO) located in Buco, Talisay, Batangas, serves as its onsite monitoring operations center and is manned 24/7 by PHIVOLCS staff. In addition to monitoring duties, the TVO staff members also represent PHIVOLCS in DRRM Councils and are frontliners for relationship building and engagement with the local communities.

In 1992, PHIVOLCS generated the earliest version of Taal Volcano hazard maps ( PHIVOLCS, 1992 ). However, with the results from more recent studies and available technology such as geographic information system to simulate modeling and higher resolution imageries and topographic maps, the latest version of the Taal Volcano Base Surge Hazard Map was generated by PHIVOLCS in 2011 ( Figure 2 ). In this hazard map, PHIVOLCS identified areas that could be affected by base surges and included a kilometer radius as a guide for the distance from the main crater. Similar to the other provinces with active monitored volcanoes, the hazard map was provided to the Batangas’ province- and municipal-level disaster management offices, and was referred to in their DRRM Plan 2017–2022 (Batangas PDRRMC, 2017) and Taal Volcano Contingency Plan 2018 ( Batangas PDRRMC, 2018 ).

FIGURE 2 . Taal Volcano Base Surge Hazard Map with kilometer radius (broken lines) from Taal Volcano Island (TVI) Main Crater Lake (MCL). The whole of TVI is declared as the permanent danger zone (PDZ). The base surge hazard zone (dark orange) is shown and buffer zones marked out at 1-km aerial distance from the hazard zone limits as additional precautionary zones. In the Taal Volcano Bulletin, the high-risk barangays of Agoncillo and Laurel within 7 km radius include Banyaga, Bilibinwang, Busobuso, and portions of Gulod. Due to the short distance from TVI, these lakeshore barangays west of TVI have historically been affected by base surges in 1754, 1911, and 1965. Lakeshore barangays Buco, Caloocan, and Leynes, all in Talisay, are also indicated for reference. Data sources: danger zone from PHIVOLCS, 2011 modeling; the base map is an interferometric synthetic aperture radar–digital terrain model (IfSAR-DTM) from National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA 2013) and Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH). Administrative boundaries are adopted from Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA 2016) Map, which also shows the municipalities around Taal Caldera. Road Data (2015) and DOST-PHIVOLCS.

The PHIVOLCS as a monitoring agency releases bulletins and advisories on the status of a volcano. These are immediately sent to the NDRRMC for wider dissemination to the public. PHIVOLCS also maintains an official website and social media accounts where various types of information are immediately posted. Recommended actions in case of renewed Taal Volcano activity were introduced as early as 1980 in a document called Operation Taal (COMVOL, 1980). Within this old document is the description of “phases of volcano activity,” which was replaced by the 6-level scheme of the volcano alert level (VAL) (from alert level 0 to alert level 5) as was introduced in 1992. The Taal VAL has evolved through time after review and reassessment, often following an episode of unrest, and it was the 2015 version that was used until the 2020 eruption. With both the Taal Volcano hazard map and volcano alert level provided to the local disaster offices, these were references for the crafting of the local government unit (LGU) DRRM and Contingency Plans. For each of the alert levels, there is a corresponding action in the LGU-prepared DRRM plan ( Supplementary Table S1 ). When the PHIVOLCS increased the alert level to 1 on 28 March 2019, the released bulletin reiterated that TVI was a permanent danger zone (PDZ) and enforcement of off-limits into the TMC. The PDRRMO and TVPL subscribed to the recommendations of no entry to the main crater and thermal areas, but the municipal disaster offices continued with tourism activities up to view decks or crater rim only, adhering to the no entry into the main crater recommendation.

With episodes of unrest through the years, awareness seminars, volcano evacuation drills, and other exercises were conducted by the local disaster management offices ( Supplementary Table S2 ). PHIVOLCS and Batangas local disaster management offices have also established a working relationship at various levels.

2.4 The 12 January 2020 eruption timeline including impacts: management of the crisis

On 12 January 2020, Taal Volcano in Batangas Province, Philippines, erupted after 43 years. On the day before the main eruption phase, bursts of volcanic earthquakes were recorded by the Taal Volcano seismic network as early as 7:33 a.m. (local time). These were accompanied by weak ground shaking felt by residents of TVI, escalating by 11:07 a.m. By 1:00 p.m. (local time), a phreatic explosion occurred in the fumaroles area located on the northeast shore of Main Crater Lake (MCL). An IP camera located inside the Main Crater (MC) captured the activity of the sudden occurrence of white steam that quickly progressed to the vigorous ejection of darker plumes until the camera was damaged by the eruption ( PHIVOLCS, 2020 ). With the rapid escalation of the event, PHIVOLCS raised the alert level from alert level 1 to alert level 2 at 2:30 p.m. ( PHIVOLCS 2020a ). The activity transitioned to phreatomagmatic eruption possibly between 2:34 p.m. and 2:40 p.m., based on PHIVOLCS IP camera images. By 4:00 p.m., the alert level was raised to alert level 3 ( PHIVOLCS 2020b ), and evacuation was recommended for areas identified as high risk. The eruption column height continued to increase, which was estimated to have reached more than 10 km between 5:30 p.m.–6:30 p.m. A quick response team (QRT) from PHIVOLCS-Quezon City was mobilized as reinforcement to the TVO staff. At around 7:30 p.m., the activity produced an eruption column of more than 15 km and volcanic lightning. Wet, heavy ashfall was experienced in most of the northeastern Taal municipalities surrounding Taal Caldera and the neighboring provinces of Cavite, Laguna, and Quezon ( PHIVOLCS, 2020 ) ( Figure 1B ) The prevailing northward wind direction brought light ashfall to Metro Manila and as far as the province of Bulacan to the north ( PHIVOLCS, 2020 ; Balangue-Tarriela et al., 2022 ). Concurrently, the alert level was raised to alert level 4 ( PHIVOLCS 2020c ) and expanded evacuation was recommended to include areas identified to be within the base surge hazard zone and 14-km radius ( Figure 3 ) ( Supplementary Table S4 ). As discussed in Section 2.2, in the Philippine DRR System, PHIVOLCS is the national agency that studies and monitors volcanoes, manages information about a volcano’s status, and issues warnings during unrest. The LGUs plan and prepare during quiet times and respond accordingly during unrest.

FIGURE 3 . Reconstructed timeline of 12 January 2020 based on instrumental data (from PHIVOLCS-VMEPD), timing of releases of Taal Volcano Bulletins and reported observations from the felt earthquakes that increased in frequency, the fissuring inside the Taal Main Crater, and observed explosion and increased volume of plume that turned from white to dark gray as it developed into an eruption column with heights reaching more than 15 km.

The identified “high-risk barangays of Agoncillo and Laurel” mentioned in the alert level 3 are the areas within the base surge zone and fall within the 7-km radius, these are Barangays, Bilibinwang and Banyaga (Agoncillo), and Busobuso and Gulod (Laurel) ( Figure 2 ). Due to the short distance from TVI, these lakeshore barangays, west of TVI, have historically been affected by base surges in 1754, 1911, and 1965 ( Delos Reyes et al., 2018 ) and were pre-identified.

The component analysis of the 2020 tephra fall samples collected showed lithic (some hydrothermally altered) and volcanic rock fragments mixed with free crystals. The tephra fell in clumps, and the presence of accretionary lapilli supports the initial reports of the phreatomagmatic nature of the event starting at 4:00 p.m. ( Balangue-Tarriela et al., 2022 ).

Stratigraphic and component analyses of deposits collected during fieldwork on TVI, conducted a year after the January 2020 eruption, provide confirmation of the sequence of events starting from the phreatic nature of the first few hours of the event ( Lagmay et al., 2021 ). The event that escalated and transitioned to a phreatomagmatic eruption in the late afternoon, developed an ash column attaining the heights of 10–15 km. Based on the review and analysis of crowd-sourced images and videos, the maximum height reached was between 17 and 21 km by 8:00 p.m. ( Lagmay et al., 2021 ). The eruption produced deposits described as base surges, which formed a field of pyroclastic dunes with cross-bedding structures, with a maximum thickness of 12 m (average of 4.7 m) proximal to the crater, and 5.8 m maximum (0.9 m average) in the lower slopes near the coast. The estimated volume of the deposits is 19 ± 3 million m 3 . Components of the deposits include accretionary lapilli, abundant juveniles, and accidental clasts, consistent with the phreatomagmatic nature of the event ( Lagmay et al., 2021 ) .

3 Materials and methods

We interviewed eyewitnesses to the 2020 eruption during fieldwork conducted from March 2 to 6, 2020. The purpose of the study is to document the experiences and capture the stories as told from the lens of eyewitnesses. We used purposive sampling and focused on finding people who 1) experienced the event and 2) could describe their experiences in detail. We looked for interviewees who were on TVI during the event and who were in contact with the TVO staff as the event unfolded. We interviewed eyewitnesses from the TCLS with whom we have previously engaged as they held positions in their barangay for a community-based preparedness-related project implemented between 2014 and 2019 and focused on the municipalities of Talisay and Agoncillo. Interviews with two officials from the province and two officials from two municipal disaster management offices (one an additional interview via Zoom in July 2022) were also used for validation of timelines of actions. The purpose of the study was explained to the interviewees, and formal consent was obtained by having them sign a consent form. Figure 4 shows the approximate location of the eyewitnesses during the eruption period. The list of eyewitnesses is presented in Table 1 in coded information for private reasons as required by the Philippine Law RA 100173 or the Data Privacy Act of 2012. To distinguish the male from female eyewitnesses, -M or -F was added to the coded identity. After the March 2020 field data collection, the team intended to do another series of surveys in other parts of the area, but this was postponed following the lockdown imposed starting on 15 March 2020 due to the rapid spread of COVID-19. With the prolonged lockdowns and associated uncertainties throughout 2020–2021, the additional survey could not be conducted anymore. Follow-up for clarifications with interviewees, however, was conducted through phone calls and SMS. The results of this study will be an important point of discussion when presented to the local disaster management offices.

FIGURE 4 . Approximate locations of eyewitnesses for this study. Excerpts presented in this study were from interviews of people from TVI and selected interviews from lakeshore communities of Agoncillo and Talisay. See Table 1 for list of eyewitnesses interviewed. Pre-2020 eruption, from the lakeshore, the take-off points of tourists are Talisay and San Nicolas and established landing sites for TVI tourist visits as take-off points for hiking are the tourist reception centers north (using the Daang Kastila trail to hike to TMC), southeast (using the Calauit trail to hike to the TMC), and southwest (for a hike to the 1965 Tabaro eruption site). Data sources: the base map is an interferometric synthetic aperture radar–digital terrain model (IfSAR-DTM) from National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA) 2013; administrative boundaries are adopted from Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), 2016.

TABLE 1 . List of interviewed eyewitnesses used in this article. Location is indicated in Figure 4 .

Data collection was performed using a semi-structured interview approach, with some open-ended questions so the eyewitnesses could elaborate on their personal experiences. The video-recorded interviews were transcribed and then analyzed qualitatively. In the review of transcriptions, the purpose was not only to determine the timing of the stories but also the statements were further examined and categorized. Selected excerpts were further analyzed and counterchecked with accounts of other eyewitnesses to establish how the stories are connected and tied up together. Small group discussions with local officials of two selected communities (locally known as barangay ) were also conducted.

Data from interviews of 18 eyewitnesses were used in this study. In addition, the names of PHIVOLCS TVO staff mentioned in the interviews were also coded when presented in the succeeding sections. Some details if specifically mentioned during the interview were marked out using xxx, for example, personal information. Selected portions of the interviews were translated into English for presenting in this article. For purposes of maintaining the essence of the local language description, the authors have opted to retain and present some words in the local language ( Tagalog ) as used in the descriptions. In the translation, we used the communicative approach to reproduce as precisely as possible the contextual meanings of the words within the constraints of the target language’s grammatical structure ( Newmark, 1988 ).

As supporting materials for validation and cross-confirmation of the timing of actions, short message service (SMS) or text messages and phone call logs, whenever still available, were requested from and graciously provided by the eyewitnesses. We also validated the narratives with the official records and volcano monitoring data and confirmation through verbal communication with TVO staff.

In this study, we used phenomenology and narratives analysis. Phenomenology as a philosophical approach is the nature of meaning that people construct in their lives and that guides their actions, and in this construction of meaning, an individual’s beliefs and desires are implied ( McPhail, 1995 ; Van Manen 2020 ). Phenomenology is the study of how things appear, are given, or are presented to us ( Van Manen and Van Manen, 2014 ). It is concerned with stories of experience from the perspective of the individual ( Lester 1999 ; Pietkiewicz and Smith 2012 ; Tembo 2016 ; Qutoshi 2018 ). As a research method, phenomenology explores the essence of a phenomenon from the perspectives of those who experienced the event. The goal is to describe the meaning of this experience: what was experienced, and how it was experienced ( Neubauer et al., 2019 ).

Related to this, narratives analysis is the study of human experience involving a retelling of an event ( Clandinin and Huber, 2014 ) using interviews as a data collection tool ( Connely and Clandinin, 1990 ). In narratives, the eyewitnesses are requested to recount and narrate the experiences of the event just as it happened ( Sandelowski 1991 ). Narratives are stories people tell about their lives ( Gray et al., 2005 )—in this case, the Taal Volcano eruption—as eyewitnesses experienced. This narrative approach enables us to analyze how human beings typically understand and represent their own lives and experiences. We look at narrative analysis and phenomenology as a valuable combined approach to support risk communication research by understanding how to learn from the experiences of others.

4 Data and results

The narratives were divided into two sets of eyewitness perspectives: those who were on TVI as the event unfolded and those who witnessed the event from the shores of the Taal Caldera Lake (TCL). During the review of transcribed interviews, three major categories of descriptions were identified. These include 1) environmental cues mostly from observations during the morning of 12 January, 2) observations of social cues from evacuation experiences, and 3) communication during the event. The narratives are presented as much as possible in a chronological manner, and Philippine local time was used.

4.1 Environmental cues: observations on 12 January 2020

On 12 January 2020, an early Sunday morning, the tourist activity, especially the visit to TVI, was already in full swing. An initial query about a felt earthquake was received by TVO staff, which was forwarded for verification. There had been felt earthquakes occasionally in the past; however, tourist guides and residents on TVI noticed an increasing frequency of felt earthquakes that are locally referred to as “ burog ” or ground shaking, and that was accompanied by subterranean sounds according to local descriptions.

4.1.1 Burog: increasing frequency and strength of felt earthquakes

“ Burog ” is a local term that is used by the people on TVI to describe felt earthquake events accompanied by rumbling sounds they associate with volcanic activity. Three of the eyewitnesses, one working as a tourist guide (DK-TVI2020-F) and the two other business owners (SI-TVI2020-M and CA-TVI2020-F) on the volcano island, narrated that they started to feel earthquakes, which they observed to increase in frequency and strength as time went by.

It started at 7:00 in the morning. It was a succession (of earthquakes). Just about when I was going down. We hiked down, we arrived at 10:30. We were waiting at the loading area because most of the guests were there. We noticed (the shaking) and wondered—what was that? It was frequent. Then, that was it, I sent text messages to him (TVO1), I said, Oy, how many have you recorded there?—DK-TVI2020-F.

I arrived in Pulo (TVI) by 7:30. It was around 9:00(?), there was an earthquake, it was weak. By 10:00, it became frequent, minutes (interval)…then by 11:00, by the seconds … continuously, I told my man, I will call Sir TVO2. I reported, “Sir TVO2, it is becoming frequent here. That was around 11:00.—SI-TVI2020-M.

We did not see anything, but there was ground shaking (burog). Then, that morning, … around 10:00–11:00. I sat down. Well, why is it ...the ground shaking (burog) seemed different or unusual, I said. My godchild called and said, “please call PHIVOLCS because I have received text messages here that in Ilaya, they can feel it, the ground shaking ( burog ) is not stopping.” So, I called TVO3.—CA1-TVI2020-F.

We note that the estimates in timing varied, but we cross-checked with the narratives and instrumental data for confirmation to come up with the general timeline ( Figure 3 ). There are three important details from these excerpts. First, on the location, the first two eyewitnesses were on the northern side of the volcano island ( Figure 4 ), while the third eyewitness was located on the southern side and had no view of the crater. Second, the three were consistent with descriptions of discrete but felt earthquakes locally referred to as burog that became frequent from 11:00 a.m. onward. Third, all three mentioned directly communicating with TVO personnel to confirm what they felt onsite. According to the TVO staff, it has become the practice of the people of TVI to inquire or report via SMS or phone call to TVO staff of felt earthquakes for years due to previous years’ unrest.

4.1.2 Increase in the volume of steaming and the “bitak” or ground fissuring inside the Main Crater

As the event continued to unfold, the occasional but discrete felt earthquakes became more frequent. One eyewitness (MC-TVI2020-M), a tourist guide stationed at the Taal Main Crater (TMC) view deck ( Figure 4 ), and recalled how he saw the fissuring inside the crater. Using rough sketches of the crater on paper during the interview, he pointed to the approximate location as he narrated:

Then suddenly they screamed. When I looked, it turned out, they were retreating. I looked there inside the crater (a hand gesture, demonstrating relative position) to the west, e when I looked inside the crater, e the steam ( usok ) was so vigorous on this side (pointing, hand gesture). It cracked ( bumitak ), which was the first to crack open, so the people were screaming. Maybe it was around 12:30 p.m. That was the time, around 12:30 p.m. It became stronger, there was steaming … Some panicked, like the vendor, the runners who were taking photographs. When they looked up, they screamed and then scampered, running away as the ground cracked open ( bumitak ). The strong steam ( usok ) was coming from the crater here (hand gesture demonstrating direction) on the east side. The voluminous steaming ( pinakamalaking usok ) coming from the big hole ( butas ) before it cracked open ( bago bumitak ).—MC-TVI2020-M

Residents around Taal in their daily-used language refer to the volcanic steam and plume they see as usok . This local word, depending on context and usage, can either mean smoke from a burning matter or steam from boiling water ( Almario, 2010 ).

For most of the descriptions in the succeeding sections, we focus on two perspectives—first is the recollections of those who immediately evacuated from TVI and reached the safety of the lakeshore across, and second, the actions of residents of the Taal Caldera Lakeshore (TCLS) communities based on eyewitnesses’ stories. Their observations of the changing character of the steam plume and experiences of ashfall and ground fissures are presented.

4.1.3 From vigorous white steam to growing gray ash plume or column

From the following excerpts, the change in color of the steam from white to dark gray as it developed into an eruption column was observed as the TVI residents were evacuating on their outrigger boats to cross the Taal Caldera Lake (TCL).

We were in the middle of the lake. We were midway, the steam ( usok ) continued to go up from the main crater, and grew bigger. It was still white. When we reached Talisay, it has turned dark … so there was ash, dust ( alikabok, gabok? ) we were just in time. When it turned dark maybe around 2:00 p.m., when it turned dark. Then it grew bigger and bigger. Like the whole mouth of the crater was filled. –SI-TVI2020-M.

The color was still normal - white. Then, it (the steam) became stronger (while we were crossing), as if … the steam (usok) became taller and rose above the crater rim- MC-TVI2020-M.

Yes, slowly it went up. At first, it was light-colored, white. It was not dark yet. Then after some time, it was like a flower that started blooming, growing. It kept on growing, and it changed color to dirty white. Yes as time went by, the steam grew bigger. –DK-TVI2020-F.

As the event progressed, the white usok (steam) description changed as it became voluminous, together with a color change to gray or black, indicating the presence of ash. At this point, the eyewitnesses were describing the eruption column.

4.1.4 Putik at buga: rain of mud and fragmented volcanic rocks

Tephra (fine to coarse fragments of volcanic rocks) started falling by 2:00 to 3:00 PM. Those who immediately fled from TVI recall that they have not noticed the tephra fall until they reached the shores of Talisay. Most described observing the change in the character of the ash (abo) , from fine materials ( pino ) to mud (putik) , and observing fragments they refer to as “ buga .” Buga is a local word for rocks around Taal described by people, referring to the small fragments of dark volcanic rocks with holes to which the equivalent technical term in volcanology is scoria.

When the rocks started falling, we were at the Baywalk (Talisay). The ash ( abo ) came first. All of us were at the Baywalk. Then, at around 4:00 p.m., it was wet. The ash was wet and smelled. When it fell on the leaves, there was a slight smoke because it was hot. –SI-TVI2020-M.

Then, it rained with mud ( putik )... I guess it was past 3:00 p.m. Around 3:30 or 4 p.m... I could not see across anymore. It was dark. Maybe that was when it exploded up there - just where the horses used to pass by. –MC-TVI2020-M.

When it started, when it changed color to dark and increased in height … it was probably around 2:00 p.m. It became dark...then there were scoria fragments ( buga ). Scoria ( buga ) were falling all around us. That was maybe 2:00 p.m. Some of the scoria ( buga ) was big. There were fine ones...then some said, to take a look at the lakewater so you can see as they fall, how the scoria fragments ( buga ) fall onto the water …. Because as I told them, it (ash column) spread toward here, it was above us, you can see how it spread, there was lightning … there was lightning there somewhere over the volcano. It was good the wind was blowing east, and towards Tagaytay. The truth is, a lot of mud (putik) fell on many places in Tagaytay. –LE1-TCLS2020-M.

The change in character, based on the description from “ pino ” (fine dust) to “ putik” (mud), confirms the wet nature of eruption (phreatic-phreatomagmatic), and the appearance of “ buga ,” the local word used to refer to scoria (suggesting larger-sized fragments), confirms the transition to the phreatomagmatic nature of the event from the initial phreatic phase. Then, visibility started to decrease, making it difficult for people to move around, further slowing the evacuation.

4.1.5 Reported ground fissures in two lakeshore communities

Starting in the late afternoon, observations of ground fissures were first reported in Talisay (SI-TVI2020-M). Based on BA-TCLS2020-M, ground fissures in Agoncillo appeared much later, most probably into the night.

While we were in Talisay, by 4:00 p.m., people were getting ready. The Mayor said, go to the gym, that is where they (evacuees) will be picked up to go to the evacuation. When we went to the gym, there were fissures ( bumitak ); it was late in the afternoon, maybe around 3:00 p.m. when the fissures appeared ( bumitak ), and people got scared. Yes, there was a fissure ( bitak ) on the ground...and (the shaking) was continuous... then it would become strong... so there was like around 2 feet that the other side of the ground went down. –SI-TVI2020-M.

(in Agoncillo) None yet. I was driving back and forth on this road with my vehicle … then I saw that (fissure)... but that part where it tilted … it was at night, I’m sure it was at night. –BA-TCLS2020-M.

4.2 Social cues: experiences during an actual evacuation

The following are descriptions of the reactions and actions of the TVI and TCLS residents based on eyewitnesses’ stories.

4.2.1 Leaving the Taal Volcano Island

This section has significant documentation of the individual actions of the eyewitnesses while leaving TVI, and how TVI residents operating the tourism business ensured that the tourists were brought to safety.

E, so soon after, most of the people started crossing the lake. The tanod (designated village security officer), because of the tourism activity of the people, xxxx of Tourism asked them to wait around. “Do not leave while there are still tourists, due to their safety, you have a responsibility to them if any of those will be left behind.” That was around 1:30 p.m. I stayed behind. The tanod also stayed behind. Of course, we are leaders. When we saw that it was getting stronger. It was still white, it was still white. When we were midway—the steam/volcanic plume ( usok ) was already very tall...What the people did, it was okay. They were not in a panic because of quick action. There was no panic in people. There were many available outrigger boats, but we did not know how many because it was more than what we needed to ride. So, it was a big help. So whatever happens, at the quickest time, we can leave. We can leave. –SI-TVI2020-M.

So, what I did, my children were still there, so I called for them. I told them to cross (to the mainland), as they said it is going to erupt (puputok na), it was steaming ( nausok na ). E we did not believe as it's been this way - with earthquakes ( naburog ), but we were convinced when some tourists who went up earlier to the volcano came back, as they could not proceed because of the steam ( usok ). So around 1:00 p.m. … and TVO3 said it is different now. No (couldn’t see the volcano from their location), but we saw the steam ( usok ) as it was very high. –CA1-TVI2020-F.

As the event continued to unfold, the following further describes the actions of MC-TVI2020-M and DK-TVI2020-F .

I did not believe it, then they screamed, so I looked - and the steam ( usok ) was strong, the fissure ( bitak ) was huge, and the steaming became strong. E, the people started running, like the tourists, but, there were still many, so I told them, “Go ahead, go down now” to all the people I was able to talk to at the crater rim. Confusion and chaos had started. Some tourist guides hesitated, that they might earn the ire of tourists if they did not proceed...some attempted to proceed, but not long after, they came back. So, when I started to go back, it was probably around 1:00 p.m...When we finally started moving to go down, there were just a few of us. I was with my wife and first-born son. I told him we need to buy gasoline as we need to cross the lake. Then kapitan called, and he said “Get ready as the people have started crossing (to the other side of the lake). So, as soon as we were able to get down, I bought gasoline and could see many outrigger boats have started crossing. He (kapitan) left later than I did. I went ahead of him as my boat is smaller, and his boat is bigger. –MC-TVI2020M.

By that time, it felt like the shaking (yanig) just kept on going and wouldn’t stop, while I was preparing my clothes. Then my husband said that they will tether the horse and my nephew who lives with us, told him to not do this anymore, as the ground was already shaking. My husband asked if there’s a provision for them to feed on. So I helped him, but we have only tied one of the horses, while my nephew frantically ran down to the shore to lower our boat. So, we were able to go down quarter to one, we were able to tie four of our horses while the others remained near the house. E, so, by 1:30 p.m., I called my son for us to meet by the shore because the boat is ready - we have a small one for the family not for tourist business. So, by quarter past two, we were already here in Buco. We were able to get here by past two. –DK-TVI2020F.

These accounts point out to various environmental cues that the TVI residents heeded. The narratives of SI-TVI2020-M and MC-TVI2020-M also emphasize the responsibility of tourist guides toward the island visitors.

4.2.2 Evacuation of residents in the lakeshore communities

As mentioned, the TCLS eyewitnesses in Agoncillo and Talisay did not feel the burog ; instead, they saw 1) motorized outrigger boats full of people leaving the TVI and 2) the white steam/plume coming from the TMC when it was already big enough to be visible, that is, with its height above the crater rim and developing into a tall dark eruption column. The following excerpts were from eyewitnesses from Banyaga (BA-TCLS2020-M) and Bilibinwang (BI1-TCLS2020-M), Agoncillo (east caldera lakeshore). The descriptions were mostly on the observed social cues followed by environmental cues that prompted them to immediately take their actions .

“It was around 1:00 p.m. when I woke up. I woke up, then had my coffee. Not long after, the children arrived.

“ Tatay (grandfather), it looks like the volcano erupted, there’s plenty of steam (usok).” I said, “Maybe someone is just burning stuff there.”

E, I still went out and I saw that it was huge. I said to myself this is for real...it is not a joke. E so, the people, I said for them to go up - the people on motorbikes were coming, with their family, brought with them clothes. It was around 2:00 p.m. in the afternoon.

“Go upslope, to the mountain, go to Bilog, Maasim, straight to Marigold.”

I was still there; I did not leave until around 3:00 p.m. Yes, they went up immediately. It was around three. I said P*$#%#, there seem to be no more people running around, like no more human movement around. Which meant, they already left. It was so fast, the ash column. There were a few people... I called one councilor, I said, where are you. He said Kap we already left. I said those people are now there. They were gone, they all left. Some were in Kuskusan, for as long as they are up there, some were in Marigold. So, that’ when I stopped. I took my vehicle to leave with my family. –BA-TCLS2020-M.

I could see the steam ( usok ) as it started to grow big. So I called TVO1. I think it was around 2:30–2:45 p.m. “Sir, what is the status of our volcano? Why are the people from the island leaving...’’ They were doing pre-emptive evacuation. When the people started leaving, it was about 3:00 p.m. I looked back, wow, it was huge by this time, so I told my colleagues... The steam ( usok ) has become big. It also turned dark, and that’s when I decided. I told the councilors to inform the people and ask people to evacuate as this will definitely go on and erupt...So they were here. I told them to use their motorcycles. So they told the people to evacuate ( lumikas na kayo ). We did not feel (any earthquakes)… It was 3:00 p.m... and by 4:00 p.m. it was already huge... and it was already black and tall. By 4 o’clock many were already in xxxxx (author’s note: pre-determined evacuation area for the barangay ) ...but others were in different places...different people... no, each individual decided on their own. –BI1-TCLS2020-M.

Meanwhile, from Leynes, Talisay, the eyewitnesses (LE1-TCLS2020-M; LE3-TCLS2020-M) described how they observed as people watched from the shore and waited. It was only much later that Talisay TCLS residents started moving.

It was huge, but it was not very tall yet … we did not feel anything. It was all steam ( usok ) that we could see....then the tourists started returning as they were told not to proceed… Those who were supposed to go there before noon were turned back. Those on the island, they said they really felt … they were the ones who felt the shaking, they said they felt even the roofs of their houses, and there was this sound–rumbling ( naugong pa )... But here, there was none... nothing here... it was normal, it seemed everything was normal … But we started making the rounds. We went to TVO to ask what alert level was there before we started... –LE1- TCLS2020-M.

The people were still talking to one another and looking on. We already gave advice to get their belongings. –LE3- TCLS2020-M.

There were many tourists there, and they came back... but they stayed by the lakeside, looking on, taking videos (of the volcano island)... e, so we advised them. Yes to prepare for evacuation because it was not... and all of us here now, we said- “why all should leave, why are the young people still here.” We did not say more as we were told it was Level 2 only... they were not even asking what level it is... we just advised them... –LE1-TCLS 2020-M.

As a consequence of the reaction, it became more difficult to leave due to poor visibility as the ashfall intensified.

One problem that resulted is we had to ferry people back and forth...and I had to comment and remind some of those that “and you still roam around when you know that the volcano is erupting. “I asked them “Where are you going.” They said they were about to go home to xxx, and there were some explosions and rain of rocks. Their main problem at that time was that there was no available transportation (bus) to take. So people took action on their own. Yes, there was some transportation for the evacuees...but it was only up to the town proper.

So, the problem that arose, we could not see, was zero. It was already zero visibility, after the scoria ( buga ) mixed with mud (putik) that were falling and that was around 5... those onlookers who were here, left around 2:00 p.m. going up to Payapa, but they were caught until nightfall in heavy traffic along the way and were still on the road until night. People with vehicles went on their own. So what we did, was we brought the elderlies and children upslope, the others did not reach the site until 7:00 p.m.—LE1-TCLS 2020-M.

Based on these recollections of eyewitnesses, residents of Banyaga and Bilibinwang, Agoncillo, immediately left once the environmental cues were observed, unlike the residents of Talisay who, even with observed cues and reminders from barangay officials, remained for a while. From the descriptions and news reports, the overall evacuation of TCLS was slow ( Delica-Willison, 2020 ) because by the time they evacuated, TCLS residents (such as Talisay) were already caught in the middle of heavy ash fall.

4.2.3 More observations of the unfolding event: early morning of 13 January

In Talisay, two eyewitnesses (DK-TVI2020-F and TA-TVI2020-M), who came from TVI stayed behind. They felt safe, for their house was located upslope. TA-TVI2020-M stayed behind to monitor the situation. However, as night time came, they experienced the following:

“We did not want to leave, because they said, we are safe because our place is high. But then by 3 a.m. in the morning... first, around 2:00 p.m., it was very strong. So by 3:00 a.m., we peeked, and we saw. We wondered, why? There was fire as it was exploding this way (hand gesture). The fire was like it spread up. There was strong shaking, so we got nervous, as there was already fire. We said, if this will continue with this fire, of course, it was scary that we might not be able to evacuate anymore. –DK-TVI2020-F.

It was 2 a.m. in the morning, Monday. We were in Barangay xxxx, which is part of Tanauan ( Figure 1 ), well, I said there was another one because it exploded. Around 2 a.m. in the morning, we asked to be rescued. Then when we arrived, there was another explosion because we felt it, Sir. There was another explosion because we felt. Sir, it was far. We still felt it. We felt the shaking, so I said, there was another one that followed after 2 a.m. in the morning. –TA -TVI2020-M.

Ay, there was sound. It was night. That was midnight when it started shaking, around 12 noon (how about earlier, around 6 in the evening?) None yet...it was from midnight onward until 3:00 a.m. There, it was like a fast up-down/dribbling motion ( nililiglig ). Like this (motion-demonstrates with hand gesture in quick up-down motion)…it was fast, fast. Maybe around fifteen (15) to twenty (20) minutes in the state. Here, you can hear the roof –LE3-TCLS2020-M.

All three mentioned the heightened activity, especially the felt earthquakes starting at almost midnight until around 3:00 a.m. in the morning unlike during the morning of 12 January when burog was felt by those in TVI. By this time, volcanic quakes were felt even by those that remained in the lakeshore communities. This appears to be the final intense phase of the eruption based on instrumental data.

4.3 Communication between Taal Volcano Observatory and Taal Volcano Island and other officials

One important detail is the direct link between the TVI residents with the PHIVOLCS TVO staff. This relationship was built up through the years. The TVO staff were accessible to the local people through mobile phones, and it proved to be a very important link during this critical period.

4.3.1 Proactive, direct communication established long before the event

The established communication between TVO and TVI residents was made possible through years of interaction during field observations, surveys, and regular equipment maintenance works conducted in TVI. For years, the TVO personnel maintained direct communication with residents of TVI so that when something unusual was felt or observed, these residents would initiate sending messages or calling a TVO staff member to confirm if there were events detected by the PHIVOLCS seismic instruments, or the TVO staff member on duty would call residents in TVI to ask if they felt an earthquake in their locations, thus serving as field validators. Part of the regular interactions would be a reiteration of reminders to be vigilant at all times and to not hesitate to leave the island in case of any alarming observations. According to SI-TVI-2020-M, a small business owner and local community leader, they have established relationships to quote, “ A long time ago. We go back in time. Yes, Sir TVO3, with Sir TVO2, Sir TVO1. With Sir TVO2, we always, every day, communicate with us, updating us … Our leader reminded us, to get ready, if the earthquakes continue, if it becomes frequent, we have to evacuate. We should be certain.. because that’s the reminder of Sir TVO2.”

4.3.2 Call to evacuate and actions

The first to evacuate were those from TVI. Based on the narratives of the eyewitnesses, the felt earthquakes heightened their concern, which prompted a call to TVO1 (SI-TVI2020-M). Some residents were already preparing to evacuate even before the call from any TVO staff and most residents of TVI evacuated on their own.

“That’s it, during the first time it shook when the shaking was strong- I talked to Sir TVO1, with our barangay tanod, the councilors. I said, “Chief, please do a house to house.” To think it was very hot from the market to the school, 362 houses in all. I said, “If there are no vehicles, go to my house, before you leave, and ask all the tourists to leave before you come down.” I told the tanod on the view deck. –SI-TVI2020-M.

“ The reason I called was, it (earthquakes) increased and became stronger. My chickens, were cackling. My wife said, can you please call, please call our barangay chief and councilor, I told them, please that even if PHIVOLCS has not made any announcement, we are asking all to evacuate. When the village tanod started doing this, I called Sir TVO2. He said, “If you are quick Kap , please ask them to evacuate (lumikas), by whatever means...” –SITVI2020-M.

(upon feeling the shaking) Yes, I was sitting right there, where you are now, I leaped to my feet, wondering, I said, “Why is it like this? Isn’t it … ”

After a while, TVO3 called, and he said “Dxxx, where is your (husband)… please be ready, as we are to go on Alert 2” he told us. “Where is Kapitan ?” to which I replied, “He is here.”

“Please give (the phone) to kapitan .” So I gave the phone to him.

So, they talked to each other, and TVO3 said “Evacuate ( palikasin-- ) the people”, So, that was it...E, so he started calling ( Kap ) but by that time, the others have already left. It was around 1 p.m. –CA1- TVI 2020-F.

Yes, at around 11:30, around noon, a, it was prohibited by the people who are in charge at the pier by xxx, that no one will be allowed to go/hike up to the –DK-TVI 2020-F.

These communications from TVO were also confirmed by four local disaster management officials who were interviewed regarding the actions taken at the DRRMO level. Although listed in Table 1 , they will be referred to as DRR1 , DRR2 , DRR3 , and DRR4 .

Between 1:00–2:00 p.m., DRR1 of TCLS was outside the town and received an urgent message from the Mayor regarding the reported felt earthquakes at the TVI. DRR1 sent a text message to TVO1 who immediately called back to confirm the ongoing activity. TVO1 informed DRR1 of the possibility of the alert level being raised to Level 2. DRR1 immediately sent this information back to the Mayor and hurriedly returned to town. By the time DRR1 arrived roughly between 2:00 and 3:00 p.m., the Mayor with the chief of police, and their staff were already assisting the evacuation of people in the identified high-risk barangays within the 7-km radius, which was their priority. They were using megaphones. Almost all came forward to evacuate, but the evacuation process was scattered as most people had their own vehicles and went different ways, some going upslope (up the caldera wall). For the identified priority high-risk barangays (within 7 km), they did not have to go back to pick up people from this zone, as according to DRR1, these barangays were empty (“wala, wala, walang sinadya na balikan dahil wala nang tao doon”) by night time. A brief meeting on 12 January between 2:00 and 3:00 p.m. was convened but mostly for verbal instructions of taskings ( Figure 5 ). It was on 13 January that the municipal disaster officers had to go back to the other barangays to pick up those who did not want to leave but were within the 7–14 km radius.

FIGURE 5 . Expanded reconstructed timeline based on eyewitnesses’ narratives showing temporal relationships of environmental cues, PHIVOLCS-QC (Quezon City), TVO actions, LGU/local actions and residents actions. Time estimates indicated are based on recollection of interviewees. Horizontal arrows with broken lines indicate additional actions during the ongoing event. Response/action of local disaster officers are based on interviews. Due to the accelerated pace of the event, all instructions from the LGUs for residents to evacuate were performed in real-time on the ground, without formal issuances based on accounts of DRR1, DRR2, and DRR3.

DRR2 was in Lemery when TVO1 called to inform about the ongoing activity of the volcano and advised that “ Alert Level will be increased any time soon if the current activity doesn’t change.” In addition, TVO1 mentioned that the community leaders have been informed about the developing activity. By the time DRR2 arrived onsite between 2:00 and 3:00 p.m., people on boats from TVI had arrived. A short meeting was convened by the Mayor in the municipal hall around 3:00 p.m. for instructions. There were vehicles, but the DRRM officers were overwhelmed as there were very few staff members in the office. The Mayor’s instructions to the barangay kapitans were clear: residents with no means of transportation should go to the main provincial road so that they can be picked up by vehicles passing out of the town. Although transportation to ferry people was limited, other towns were ready to assist and sent support vehicles. DRR2 noted that there were people who stood by the lakeshore to watch the event as it unfolded, especially in the beginning. However, those who were scared and able to leave evacuated voluntarily.

DRR3 also confirmed having direct communication (through a phone call) with TVO1 at 1:53 p.m. just before the 2:00 p.m. release of Taal Volcano Bulletin, during which TVO1 gave the advanced information that alert level 2 would be raised. DRR3 also received two additional phone calls from PHIVOLCS-QC at 3:39 p.m. and 3:51 p.m. for advanced information regarding the increase to alert level 3 through the Taal Volcano Bulletin that was released at 4:00 p.m. By this time, DRR3 was in touch with local disaster officers of other towns that have jurisdiction over TVI communities and received confirmation that the volcano island had been evacuated. DRR3 watched the growing tall and dark eruption column from the lakeshore and coordinated with other local disaster officials by phone calls. It was around this time at 4:00 p.m. that DRR3 was relieved to have received initial reports (from Talisay and Balete) that the TVI had been completely evacuated and that this was carried out in such a short period. According to DRR3, one Mayor commented that the growing height of the volcanic plume alarmed and put fear into the TVI residents, leading them to immediately leave the island. Their decision was reinforced after the information from TVO staff members.

Another phone call conversation between PHIVOLCS-QC and DRR3 took place just before the bulletin for the increase to alert level 4 was released at 7:30 p.m. In this Taal Volcano Bulletin, evacuation of areas up to a 14-m radius was recommended ( Supplementary Table S1 ). According to DRR3, this was a moment of realization that adjustments had to be rapidly made as in their existing contingency plan, at alert level 3, they were prepared for additional areas between 7 and 10 km only. According to DRR3 and DRR4, they were overwhelmed as they had to move additional people farther, but by this time, they received support from the Philippine National Police (PNP) and the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) to help in the evacuation.

Separately, from their emergency operations center (EOC), DRR4 had been monitoring the PHIVOLCS website and social media for updates, as soon as various reports about the unrest or activity at TVI were received at around 2:00 p.m. Albeit difficult to connect, DRR4 also confirmed a phone call conversation with TVO1 at 2:09 p.m. after the official bulletin was already released on the PHIVOLCS sites. Their EOC continued and were kept occupied with coordination for the mobilization of support, anticipating the need to assist and augment operations of the affected municipalities, especially when the alert level was raised to Level 3 by 4:00 p.m.

All three local disaster officers (DRR1, DRR2, and DRR3) mentioned that due to the fast-paced nature of the situation, most instructions for evacuation were verbal and no documentation of these DRRMO meetings was prepared.

5 Discussion

For this study of the Taal Volcano January 2020 event, the initial purpose is to determine the sequence of actions as the volcano’s status escalated. We focused on reconstructing the event as experienced by eyewitnesses and examined in detail the possible factors leading to evacuation decisions.

5.1 Reconstructed timeline for 12 January 2020

From the list of physically observable signs of unrest shown in Figures 3 , 5 , the expanded reconstructed timeline from the eyewitnesses’ accounts showing temporal relationships of the environmental cues, and the actions of the four 4) main groups of actors: PHIVOLCS-QC (Quezon City); TVO; LGU/local officials; and residents, are presented. The detailed content of the bulletins released is presented in Supplementary Table S4 . The TVO staff members who had direct contact with 2 local leaders (TA-TVI2020-M and SI-TVI2020-M) starting at 12:00 noon provided verbal advise that the Alert Level should be raised, and this served as the final push for the action of TVI residents, who were getting ready to evacuate when the environmental cues started to escalate. Based on the timeline, the Taal Volcano Bulletin was released at 2:30 p.m., but by this time, most TVI residents had already crossed over to the lakeshore.

Meanwhile, as the Taal volcano activity further escalated, the residents of the lakeshore communities were alerted by the movement of boats loaded with TVI residents, as well as the already visible growing and darkening volcanic plume. The Taal Volcano Bulletin raising the Alert Level from 2 to 3 was released at 4:00 p.m., identifying high-risk barangays (Taal lakeshore communities within the 7-km radius) for evacuation. The local emergency operation centers were activated. By 7:30 p.m., with the release of the Taal Volcano Bulletin, the recommended evacuation zone was expanded to cover a 14-km radius when the alert level was increased to Level 4.

Eyewitnesses’ accounts were validated against the timing established from the PHIVOLCS Volcano Monitoring Division instrumental data. It is important to be able to put in as much documentation from the local government units concerned for relevant data on the details of the evacuation process. However, as mentioned in Section 4.3.2, according to the municipal disaster officials we interviewed, most actions were through direct verbal instructions as soon as the emergency plans were activated. Based on the interviews, meetings were briefly convened by the province- and two municipal-level disaster offices, but these were undocumented (no minutes of meetings or memo issuances). Due to the accelerated pace of the event, all instructions from the LGUs for the residents to evacuate were done in real-time on the ground, without formal issuances based on accounts of DRR2, DRR2, DRR3, and DRR4. In retrospect, the direct link between TVO and TVI residents and some local disaster officials became very limited. The focus of the communication during the initial stages of the crisis was on relaying critical information between TVO and TVI. The implementation of evacuation for TVI was accomplished at a rapid pace, and to some extent, the same can be said for the high-risk coastal communities within 7 km when the alert was raised to level 3. However, the local disaster officials were overwhelmed by the succession of events, especially with the 7:30 p.m. release of the Taal Volcano Bulletin and the recommendation for evacuation of those within the 14-km radius. The communication to TCLS residents for evacuation within the 14-km radius had become more challenging given the situation that people were still evacuating in the middle of tephra fall as night fell.

As per procedure, at the national level, information on the status of the volcano went directly to the NDRRMC Operations Center through official channels of communication. A separate communication was sent to the provincial disaster management office. For wider public reach, the same information was simultaneously posted on the official website and social media accounts. In Albay, for each of the Mayon Volcano Bulletin issued by PHIVOLCS, a corresponding Albay PDRRMO issuance on instructions or directives is immediately released. However, Mayon Volcano has erupted several times in the last 50 years, and these eruptions provided the LGUs and residents around Mayon with more experiences and opportunities to improve their DRRM system. The outcome of these previous experiences is a better-trained system when emergency mode and the DRRM and Contingency Plans are activated during volcanic unrest. Coordination between province-level and municipal-level disaster offices is clear and well-defined ( Martinez-Villegas et al., 2021 ). For Batangas, except for the episodes of seismic swarms, the province never experienced an actual Taal Volcano eruption in the last 43 years. It is also noted that the quick pace and duration of a volcanic event are different for Taal. Although drills and exercises were conducted in previous years ( Supplementary Table S2 ), these were still limited in scope. The existing DRRM and Contingency Plans were put to actual implementation and tested only during the 12 January 2020 event. This was evident during the 12 January 2020 response in terms of overall actions not only of the officials but of the residents as well, if we are to look at the details of mobilization and logistics (evacuation transportation and site management) ( Delica-Willison, 2020 ; Lim et al., 2022 ).

5.2 Decision-making: environmental, social cues, and warning messages

For a rapidly developing situation such as the case of the Taal Volcano on 12 January 2020, the awareness of the TVI residents about the signs of volcanic unrest, and to act upon these environmental cues, mobilized people to action. We note that several eyewitnesses confirmed the residents’ actions: others have decided, or have started preparing or were leaving TVI even before the call from any TVO staff members between 11:00 a.m. and 1:00 p.m. ( SI-TVI2020-M; CA1-TVI2020-F ). The Taal Volcano Bulletin was released at 2:30 p.m. The advanced information to TVI officials, barangay officials, and community leaders providing the warning message to evacuate before the bulletin was released (lumikas/palikasin) was one of the contributing factors that prompted the appropriate action to evacuate. There were also specific reminders that tourists waiting in Talisay dock to cross the lake were not allowed to proceed and that tourists on the island were to be assisted to leave before the tourist guides could evacuate themselves ( SI-TVI2020-M ).

5.2.1 Evacuation and location from the volcano

From the narratives, the reason to evacuate seems to be influenced by the location of eyewitnesses, especially their distance from the volcano. The residents of TVI (on ground zero) readily evacuated due to the observed environmental cues such as increased frequency of strong earthquakes accompanied by rumbling sounds (burog) , and increased volume of volcanic steam (usok) that changed color from white to gray or black. For the TCLS residents who were located across the volcano island, it is the observable gray-black volcanic plume coupled with the social cues (i.e., the observed evacuation of TVI residents on their boats) that prompted the initial evacuation for those who have the shortest distance from TVI to the lakeshore, especially for Bilibinwang and Banyaga (BI1-TCLS2020-M and BA-TCLS2020-M) earlier than the 4:00 p.m. release of Taal Volcano Bulletin increasing the alert to level 3. Despite the initial response of the TVI residents to voluntarily evacuate followed by lakeshore residents, especially those in the identified high-risk areas who started moving before the 4:00 p.m. release of the bulletin increasing the alert to level 3 (i.e., Section 4.2.2. Banyaga and Bilibinwang), and many other TCLS barangays remained.

The residents of the lakeshore barangays of Talisay, which received some of the early evacuees from TVI, did not seem to have the same response as some of the residents of Banyaga and Bilibinwang. Historically (1754, 1911, and 1965), Talisay was not impacted by the base surges, as its location is outside the 7-km radius. Residents of these other lakeshore barangays still waited for the raise to alert level 4, which was not until 7:30 p.m. This confirms the recent findings in a survey conducted on Taal that perceived risk proximity as a factor that contributes to behavior controls and risk avoidance, and these are significant to evacuation intention ( Kurata et al., 2022 ). In addition, another study conducted on Taal suggests that evacuation characteristics (e.g., a pre-identified evacuation center near home, activated emergency response by officials) and eruption characteristics (e.g., distance from the volcano and minimal time to prepare for the volcanic eruption) were identified as important drivers for evacuation in the survey study conducted by Prasetyo et al. (2021) . These identified factors are also consistent with what has been pointed out in another study on the reasons for evacuating as cited by respondents: seeing evidence of threat (which means seeing the eruption), being advised by officials, relatives urging them to evacuate, and seeing that neighbors or relatives left ( Perry, 1983 ).

There is an interesting comparison that can be made from a study conducted by Martinez-Villegas et al. (2021) at Mayon Volcano on the views of residents about what to them is an eruption and when an event is threatening or dangerous. The study looked at how people developed their meanings of hazards and risks based on what they have experienced and observed over time. It is the eruptive events experienced in the past that shaped their views. Residents living on the slope of Mayon volcano wait for observed environmental cues, relating eruptions to seeing the fire at the summit , feeling the strength of the explosion , relating to the presence of ash (how thick or thin?) , whether they feel weak or strong shaking , or whether they just hear breathing-like sounds or loud explosions . Together with directives from their local disaster officers, these are also factors they consider in their decision to evacuate or remain ( Martinez-Villegas et al., 2021 ). For this particular Taal Volcano event of 2020, even without prior experience of any actual eruption phenomena, the progressive changes in environmental cues were the factors in decision-making for TVI but apparently not for all of TCLS.

5.2.2 Protective action decision model: situational facilitators and impediments

These Taal 2020 eruption narratives of eyewitnesses, although few and limited, illustrate the individual decision-making process during an unfolding volcanic crisis. Considering that there was only one reported as a direct casualty ( Ozaeta, 2020 ), the narratives presented gives glimpses of the process leading to a successful evacuation of the TVI residents and tourists (estimated at 6,000) on a volcano island during a rapidly escalating activity. When the alert levels were increased, the crisis expanded beyond TVI to include the evacuation of TCLS residents. Although apparently slow at the beginning as news reports indicated people evacuating in the middle of heavy ash fall ( Delica-Willison, 2020 ), roughly 38,203 individuals from TVI and TCLS communities were moved to safety in various evacuation centers ( NDRRMC, 2020 ). It is the combination of the early communication for TVI, environmental cues, and social cues that led to the evacuation. The step-by-step procedure for evacuation as written in the provincial-level plan needed adjustments. In retrospect, this is understandable considering the rapid escalation and the succession of raising of alert levels from two to four between 2:30 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. Still, the outcome of this event is an important baseline for the review and improvement of existing response plans and protocols during volcano-related events.

In these Taal 2020 interviews, we identified actual situational variables that fall into environmental and social cues following the Protective Action Decision Model, PADM ( Lindell and Perry, 2012 ; Lecher and Rouleau, 2019 ). A summary of these identified variables, aligned with the PADM, is presented in Figure 6 . In the PADM, the process is initiated by situational variables, environmental cues, social cues, and receipt of the warning message. In the case of Taal 2020, in the middle of an unfolding event, the decisions and resulting actions of TVI eyewitnesses highlight the importance of alertness to these environmental cues (various observations on changing volcano behavior). The received message to evacuate reinforced this instinctive decision to leave. This was also reinforced by trust in the received warning message during the unfolding event, a trust that was built on long-established communication between the monitoring agency (TVO staff) and the eyewitnesses.

FIGURE 6 . Summary presentation of the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) adapted and modified from Lindell and Perry (2012) and Lechner and Rouleau (2019) . For this work, we identified from the shared narratives’ specific situational variables, situational facilitators, and impediments in the process that influenced evacuation as the outcome. TVI and TCLS indicate where each variable is attributed. We recognize there are still many other factors at play in an unfolding volcano crisis event and a more detailed study is recommended.

For the TCLS eyewitnesses, it was seeing the evacuation from the TVI of people in outrigger boats that was the main social cue, and the observation of a voluminous dark eruption column, as an environmental cue, that finally led to the evacuation, and by this time, receipt of information about the alert level increase from PHIVOLCS. In the decision-making process, there are identifiable situational facilitators. First, owning outrigger boats (for TVI residents), motorcycles, or even just being able to walk are variables that facilitate one’s ability to evacuate. Those who could not leave had to wait for transportation from the local government. Having a more certain place to go to (whether to relatives or pre-identified evacuation sites) can also be another situational facilitator for decision-making.

For impediments (i.e., delayed or non-evacuation), we identified the residents’ wait-and-see attitude, opting to watch the event as it unfolded. Another is the perceived safety of their location; for this case, moving upslope and away from the lakeshore part of the community (as referred to in Section 4.2.3). As presented, the eyewitnesses chose to stay behind instead of leaving on the night of 12 January. However, eventually, they became scared as they felt the strong shaking and heard the sound that went on through the last hours of the night until 3:00 a.m. (13 January). The local DRR officials described (e.g., in Section 4.3.2) their concern over the limited means of transportation, which further delayed evacuation (the province and neighboring towns provided additional trucks). Another impediment is the timing of information received. Those who waited for alert level 4 evacuated when it was already night time, coupled with heavy tephra fall, which is another physical impediment, that is, poor visibility. From the descriptions and news reports, the overall evacuation of TCLS was slow ( Delica-Willison, 2020 ) because by the time they evacuated, the TCLS residents (such as Talisay) were already caught in the middle of heavy ash fall.

6 Concluding remarks

This study documented and analyzed eyewitnesses’ narratives on the short-lived 12 January 2020 Taal Volcano eruption. To be able to capture these narratives, the study focused on finding eyewitnesses who were on the volcano island during the event and eyewitnesses from the lakeshore communities, and conducted a semi-structured interview approach. These recorded interviews were transcribed and qualitatively analyzed. Focusing on visual observations and actions of people, we were able to reconstruct the sequence of events in a rapidly unfolding volcanic crisis from the lens of the people who experienced the eruption.

From these eyewitnesses’ accounts during the Taal Volcano 2020 eruption, the reasons and timing to evacuate seem to be influenced by the location of eyewitnesses, especially their distance from the volcano. The residents of TVI (on ground zero) readily evacuated due to the observed environmental cues such as increased frequency of strong earthquakes accompanied by rumbling sounds (burog) and increased volume of volcanic steam (usok) that changed color from white to gray or black. For the TCLS residents who were located across TVI, it is the combination of environmental cues (e.g., observable gray-black volcanic plume) coupled with the social cues, mainly the observed evacuation of TVI residents on their boats that influenced the decision to evacuate.

The evacuation to safety of the local people living in TVI together with the tourists who were on the island on 12 January can also be attributed to the quick thinking and decisive action of some of the TVI residents as described by the eyewitnesses. In addition, the established relationship and communication link between PHIVOLCS TVO staff members and the local government officials through long years of working together have built the trust in the received warning to immediately evacuate.

To most Batangas LGU and other government officials and residents, this was their first experience responding to an ongoing crisis related to a Taal Volcano eruption. The existing provincial and municipal DRRM plans had corresponding actions to each increase of the alert levels issued by PHIVOLCS, but the accelerated pace at which the event unfolded on 12 January required a fast-paced response as the local government activated their disaster response plan and deployed staff for various activities (e.g., to set up evacuation centers and to immediately provide transportation to the evacuees). A review and assessment of the pre-2020 plan as against the actual response, especially in the action per alert level, needs to be undertaken for enhancing and updating the LGU’s DRRM and Contingency Plans. PHIVOLCS has already revised its Taal Volcano Alert Level Scheme as of June 2021, and this needs to be thoroughly rolled out to the various communities.

These data on the documentation of oral accounts of eyewitnesses were analyzed from the perspectives of eyewitnesses in TVI and the TCLS residents. This is a valuable dataset rich in descriptions not only of the volcano’s behavior through time but also of individual actions. This is an add-on to the volcano history as the human dimension of the crisis is given as much focus.

Data availability statement

Data supporting this work specifically full transcriptions of the interviews are available at DOST-PHIVOLCS upon request and subject to agreements. The full names of all interviewees are tabulated and kept by the main author. The interviewees are coded and full names will not be available to any third party due to the Philippine Law Republic Act 10173 also known as Data Privacy Act. The law protects individuals from unauthorized processing of personal information.

Ethics statement

Ethical review and approval was not required for the study on human participants. The participants provided their written informed consent to participate in this study.

Author contributions

MM-V is the lead researcher, designed the study, interviewed eyewitnesses, analyzed the transcriptions, and led the writing of the manuscript. PR contributed to Sections 2.2, 4.2, and 5.1; provided additional documents; and continued on follow-ups of relevant documents from PDRRMO. LS and DD both interviewed eyewitnesses; AL, PR, and RS searched, recommended, and located eyewitnesses, provided critical communication data (phone logs, SMS messages), helped establish timelines during the data analysis, and followed up communication with interviewees. AP prepared all map figures used for this manuscript. All participated in discussions of the data, analyzed possible interpretations, and gave valuable insights about the event.

Funding for this research was provided by DOST-PHIVOLCS Internal Funds based of General Appropriations Act (GAA) of 2020 for the Project Narrative Accounts of Major Events in the Philippines (Taal Volcano 2020).

Acknowledgments

The authors thank Joan Beliran and Diane Bumatang for helping to retrieve references from the DOST-PHIVOLCS S&T Library and access to online materials, especially during this period of the pandemic. We also would like to thank Lito Castro of Batangas PDRRDMO and Lito de Guzman for helping modify the map showing the location of monitoring equipment used in this manuscript, Winchelle Sevilla for sharing the seismic data for comparison and Renato U. Solidum, for providing useful comments. Funding for this research was provided by DOST-PHIVOLCS Internal Funds based of General Appropriations Act (GAA) of 2020 for the Project Narrative Accounts of Major Events in the Philippines (Taal Volcano 2020). We are very much grateful and wish to thank the three reviewers and Karen Fontijn for their many valuable comments and suggestions that gave us the opportunity to improve this manuscript.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Publisher’s note

All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors, and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

Supplementary material

The Supplementary Material for this article can be found online at: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.923224/full#supplementary-material

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Keywords: Taal Volcano, narratives, eruptions, evacuation, decision-making, phenomenology

Citation: Martinez-Villegas MM, Reniva PD, Sanico LRD, Loza AR, Seda RG, Doloiras DF and Pidlaoan AC (2022) Perspectives on the 12 January 2020 Taal Volcano eruption: An analysis of residents’ narrative accounts. Front. Earth Sci. 10:923224. doi: 10.3389/feart.2022.923224

Received: 19 April 2022; Accepted: 20 September 2022; Published: 12 October 2022.

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Copyright © 2022 Martinez-Villegas, Reniva, Sanico, Loza, Seda, Doloiras and Pidlaoan. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

*Correspondence: Ma. Mylene Martinez-Villegas, [email protected]

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Volcanic Forecasting, Crisis Management, and Risk Communication

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Big volcano science: needs and perspectives

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Volcano science has been deeply developing during last decades, from a branch of descriptive natural sciences to a highly multi-disciplinary, technologically advanced, quantitative sector of the geosciences. While the progress has been continuous and substantial, the volcanological community still lacks big scientific endeavors comparable in size and objectives to many that characterize other scientific fields. Examples include large infrastructures such as the LHC in Geneva for sub-atomic particle physics or the Hubble telescope for astrophysics, as well as deeply coordinated, highly funded, decadal projects such as the Human Genome Project for life sciences. Here we argue that a similar big science approach will increasingly concern volcano science, and briefly describe three examples of developments in volcanology requiring such an approach, and that we believe will characterize the current decade (2020–2030): the Krafla Magma Testbed initiative; the development of a Global Volcano Simulator; and the emerging relevance of big data in volcano science.

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Introduction

Volcano science has deeply evolved during last decades. One of us (PP) presented perspectives for next decade developments at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meetings 2010 and 2020, which are summarized in Table 1 . As from that easy forecast, approaches based on statistics and probabilities have become progressively more widespread in volcanology: a search in the Web of Science shows that the number of entries responding to “volcano” and “probability” more than doubles from the first to the second decade of this century. Similarly, sharing resources, as well as sharing experience, is continuing to increase in relevance. Examples include the large investments from the European Commission in infrastructural developments such as EPOS, the European Plate Observing System ( www.epos-eu.org ), representing the platform for EU-level data accessibility and sharing in solid Earth, and the frame within which European geoscientists discuss and implement common development strategies; and other EU-level investments, facilitated through EPOS, aimed at transverse, transnational access to resources such as advanced laboratories, observatories, data collections, and computational centers, and of which Eurovolc ( www.eurovolc.eu ) represents a valuable example. Other successful sharing initiatives include the VOBP (Volcano Observatory Best Practices) workshop series aimed at sharing best practices for volcano observatories, and including sharing of resources to sustain the inclusion of observatories from developing countries (Pallister et al. 2019 ).

The talk at AGU 2020 focused on the expected major developments in the current decade 2020–2030. Identifying the many sectors of volcanology that may benefit from significant advance is beyond the scope. The aim there, and here with this short paper, was that of identifying some major elements that may contribute significantly to shape volcanology in the next years. Together with the contributions from many other colleagues in this volume, the objective is to present a picture of what volcano science may look like in 10 years from now. The perspective that we present here largely (but not exclusively) refers to examples from Europe, that we believe can be representative of developments at international scale.

Big science and volcano science

The key word describing major upcoming developments in volcanology is big science. Big science usually refers to large scientific endeavors involving big budgets, big staff, big machines, and big laboratories. Other communities have engaged in big science since long, with enormous impacts such as those brought by the Large Hadron Collider in particle physics, the Hubble telescope in astronomy and astrophysics, or the large-scale initiative represented by the Human Genome Project ( https://www.genome.gov/human-genome-project ) in life sciences. ODP (Oceanic Drilling Program) activities carrying out exploration of the ocean floor are an example of large-scale projects in the Earth sciences, which have also largely benefited volcanology especially when the research involved volcanic ridges and arcs. One may wonder whether volcano science needs similar large-scale, international cooperative efforts. As a matter of fact, we are deeply convinced of the unique importance of science developed by individual or small groups of researchers. Examples of deep scientific innovation following from modest funding are countless, and, fortunately, science still flourishes on great ideas. It is a fact, however, that some extraordinary achievements strictly require similar extraordinary investments. The standard model of quantum mechanics constituting our current vision of the world would not be the same, without extreme technological implementations at a few large particle accelerators. Similarly, we would not have machines on Mars sending back pictures and data and possibly preparing a next human mission, without the huge investments that such an endeavor requires.

What about volcanoes? Of all the extremes that we have reached so far, none is as close to us yet as hidden and mysterious as real magma below volcanoes. We send probes to directly observe, sample, and analyze the surface of Mars at a distance of order 10 8  km, but have never done the same for magma at just 10 0  km below our feet. If curiosity and pure scientific interest are not enough, then it can be noticed that at least 800,000 people in the world live close enough to active volcanoes to directly suffer from a volcanic eruption (UNISDR 2015 ), and anticipating the occurrence of an eruption strictly requires understanding the nature of magma and its underground dynamics. If one would rank relevance on economic value, then it is useful to recall the immense heat associated with volcanic intrusions, of which the proportion converted into energy at geothermal power plants is nothing but a vanishing fraction (e.g., Friðleifsson and Elders 2005 ; Tester et al. 2006 ; Reinsch et al. 2017 ), as well as the potential of underground brines related to magmatic intrusions to be sources of strategic metals (Blundy et al. 2021 ). Summed up with renewable and clean characteristics of geothermal energy may make the search for real magma a highly remunerative effort in the near future.

In the talk at AGU 2020, the focus was on three themes that we expect are going to represent big developments in volcanology: directly reaching underground magma; collecting and processing volcanic data at unprecedented level; and developing a global volcano model. Ultimately, those themes can be reduced to measuring, analyzing, and modeling, making up the fundamental components of scientific investigation. Current and foreseen developments are described mostly with reference to ongoing or next initiatives in the European research landscape, of size and breath such as to likely represent big directions for developments also at the global scale.

Krafla Magma Testbed (KMT)

If one had to fix a date for the initiation of KMT, that would almost certainly be September 2014, when the first dedicated workshop took place within the Krafla caldera. That resulted from John Eichelberger’s vision and determination, as well as from the openness of Landsvirkjun, the Icelandic energy company owning the Krafla geothermal power plant and hosting the workshop. The story began, however, 5 years earlier, when the drill rig at the IDDP-1 well, aiming at supercritical fluids at 4-km depth, got stuck for days at only 2.1 km before it was realized that rhyolitic melt had been unexpectedly hit (Elders et al. 2014 ; Rooyakkers et al. 2021 ). Retrospectively, it was then realized that buried magma had been encountered a few other times at the same depth while drilling at various locations inside the caldera (Eichelberger 2019 ). Seismic imaging (Schuler et al. 2015 ) suggests that the rhyolitic melt may have a minimum volume around 0.5 km 3 . Flow testing at IDDP-1, before the well casing collapsed, produced an amazing 15–40 MW e (Axelsson et al. 2013 ), suggesting that two such wells would be enough to replace the entire Krafla power plant including a few tens conventional geothermal wells.

The serendipitous encounter with magma at Krafla demonstrates that (i) shallow magma bodies can escape even the most sophisticated geophysical prospections, a fact that is alarming for many high risk volcanoes; and (ii) drilling to magma can be safe, as any known accidental case, including those at Puna, Hawaii, and Menengai caldera, Kenya, did not lead to uncontrolled events (Eichelberger 2020 ; Rooyakkers et al. 2021 ).

Today, a large scientific consortium is engaging with country governments and industrial partners to define a long-term program named Krafla Magma Testbed, or KMT ( www.kmt.is ). KMT is foreseen to be the first underground magma observatory in the world, in the form of a series of long-standing wells for scientific and industrial exploration, directly opening inside and around the shallow magmatic body and equipped with advanced monitoring instrumentation (Fig.  1 ). Scientific fields opening to next level investigation include the origin of rhyolitic magmas in basaltic environments (and ultimately, the origin of continents), the thermo-fluid dynamics and petro-chemical evolution of magmas, the heat and mass exchange with the plumbing system, surrounding rocks and geothermal system, the rheology and thermo-mechanical properties from deep volcanic rock layers to magma and across the melt-rock interface, the relationships between surface records and deep magma dynamics and interpretation of volcanic unrests, and many others. Decades of speculation that still dominates the scientific debate would be overcome by direct evidence and measurements, and by real-scale experiments on the natural system. Similarly, innovative experimentation and measurements could lead to next-generation geothermal energy production systems exploiting extremely efficient, very high enthalpy near-magma fluids and heat directly released from the cooling margins of the magma body.

The KMT concept. A series of wells are kept open inside and around the shallow magma intrusion at Krafla (2.1 km depth). Temperature- and corrosion-resistant instrumentation is placed inside the wells down to magma. The surface is heavily instrumented with an advanced multi-parametric monitoring network. Dedicated laboratories, offices, and a visitor center complement the infrastructure. Background picture: courtesy of GEORG (Geothermal Research Cluster of Iceland)

KMT is, obviously, an endeavor that cannot be faced by a restricted group or a single country. It requires instead a large, coordinated effort involving many diverse expertise and capacities from scientific to industrial, and disciplines embracing from thermo-fluid dynamics and material science to geology, geochemistry, and geophysics. The challenges are such as to require coordinated investments of order 10 8 dollars (see www.kmt.is ), not little money but still much less than the costs of other large infrastructures mentioned above. Currently (October 2021), the Icelandic government is welcoming partners and dedicating resources; a KMT/ICDP project has been recently approved; national and international projects raised in support of KMT are saturating the costs for the KMT preparatory phase 0, and phase 1 involving the first scientific well reaching to magma is getting closer.

Global Volcano Simulator (GVS)

The atmospheric scientists have been developing for decades general circulation models and a global simulation approach to atmospheric dynamics that they employ daily to produce weather forecasts. While the physics governing volcanic processes is of comparable complexity (e.g., Sparks 2003 ; Segall 2019 ; Papale 2021 ), a large part of the volcanic system is not directly observed (see the KMT description above). That makes a huge difference in terms of quality and accuracy, as atmospheric model predictions can be updated in real time with data coming from below (ground-based), from inside (weather balloons and rockets, radars) and from above (satellites). Similar capacities in volcano science exist for the atmospheric dispersion of volcanic ashes (e.g., Stohl et al. 2011 ; Tanaka and Iguchi 2019 ; Pardini et al. 2020 ), and for other sufficiently slow surface phenomena, such as lava flows (e.g., Wright et al. 2008 ; Vicari et al. 2011 ; Bonny and Wright 2017 ). For the complex dynamics of volcanic unrest and escalation to eruption or return to quiet conditions, which are of utmost relevance for volcano early warning systems and implementation of emergency plans, we are limited to indirect observations through multi-parametric monitoring networks. Those networks provide a rich basis over which the deep volcano dynamics are inferred and the short-term evolutions are forecasted. Still, such forecasts suffer from the lack of a global reference model for their interpretation, often resulting in discordant inferences and projections by different groups of experts.

A reference Global Volcano Simulator would allow many different observations to be placed within a unique, consistent physical framework and integrated holistic dynamic modeling approach. Such a framework should allow a physical representation of the coupled processes and dynamics in multiple domains from the volcanic plumbing system to the surface, including the surrounding rocks and geothermal circulation systems through which signals of deep dynamics are transported to our monitoring networks. Together with the KMT initiative described above and providing ground-truth constraints as well as a unique chance for validation tests, such a global approach to the underground (and surface) volcano dynamics would project volcanology fully into the third millennium, bringing it closer to other scientific fields for which the quantitative revolution started much in advance. The large destination Earth initiative by the European Commission ( https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/destination-earth ) aims at developing a high precision digital model of the Earth to monitor and simulate both natural and man-made phenomena and processes. The initiative provides a long-term perspective which develops largely through the construction of digital twins (Fig.  2 ), that is, digital replicas of natural (physical, biological) or man-made systems. Among the high priority digital twins that are foreseen by the Commission, the one on weather-induced and geophysical extremes ( https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/workshops-reports-elements-digital-twins-weather-induced-and-geophysical-extremes-and-climate ) is expected to provide the conditions for bringing to a next level some of the recent developments in modeling the complex dynamics of volcanic systems and improving the performance of parallel computing in solid Earth (see also the European Centre of Excellence ChEESE: https://cheese-coe.eu ). As a matter of fact, the digital twin concept applied to volcanoes coincides largely with the GVS described here, showing that the times can be mature for such an ambitious undertaking.

Possible scheme for a digital twin of a volcanic system. Models and data concur to scenarios and forecasts. Models are continuously tested and refined, e.g., by adding more or better microphysics. Both data and models are accompanied by quality assessments and certification. Third parties access data and models, as well as visualization tools. While the scheme is general, the cited resources refer to the European landscape

• Big volcano data

Direct observations and global modeling described above are expected to impact deeply volcano science. The fundamental source of information on volcanic processes and dynamics from most volcanoes worldwide will continue to be the multi-parametric remote and on-site instrumental networks collecting data before, during, and after volcanic eruptions. With the development of the digital age, big data and related technologies such as Machine Learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) have exploded in virtually any aspect of science (e.g., Chen et al. 2012 ; Wamba et al. 2015 ; Gorelick et al. 2017 ). AI algorithms can be trained to reproduce some of our capabilities, such as driving a car or writing a meaningful text. What looks more relevant in volcano science, however, is that ML and AI algorithms can be employed to find, hidden within huge sequences of data, meaningful patterns that trained teams of humans may miss in months or years of work. ML is employed already in a variety of research applications related to volcanoes, including automatic classification of seismicity (Masotti et al. 2006 ; Malfante et al. 2018 ; Bueno et al. 2020 ), analysis of infrasound signals (Witsil and Johnson 2020 ), detection from satellite images of eruptions (Corradino et al. 2020 ) or anomalous deformation areas (Anantrasirichai et al. 2018 , 2019 ), establishment of source regions from tephra analysis (Bolton et al. 2020 ; Pignatelli and Piochi 2021 ), identification of changes in eruption behavior (Hajian et al. 2019 ; Watson 2020 ), and volcano early warning analysis (Parra et al. 2017 ).

The fundamental element of ML and AI is algorithm training, which requires huge amounts of data before the trained algorithms can be used to mine other datasets. Modern multi-parametric networks at highly monitored volcanoes, constellations of satellites, etc. produce continuous streams of space–time data daily. Satellite data are organized and accessible through space agencies, with increasing levels of accessibility being provided through large-scale initiatives, such as GEO’s Geohazard Supersites and Natural Laboratories ( https://geo-gsnl.org/ ). However, a similar level of organization is still missing for ground-based data collected at volcanoes worldwide. Relevant attempts to provide free, organized access to ground-based volcano data are ongoing (e.g., Newhall et al. 2017 ; Costa et al. 2019 ; in Japan: Ueda et al. 2019 ; in Europe: Bailo and Sbarra 2017 ; etc.), while large funding agencies such as the European Union ( https://ec.europa.eu/info/research-and-innovation/strategy/strategy-2020-2024/our-digital-future/open-science_en ; https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/turning_fair_into_reality_0.pdf ) increasingly require strict adherence to the principles of open science and FAIR data. Definitely, of all the projections one may make for volcano science in the next decade, the one with the highest likelihood of revealing correct is the burst of big volcano data, or otherwise, volcano science would find itself lagging behind other communities who fully profit of big developments that will largely shape research and support scientific advance in the coming years and decades.

Concluding remarks

The volcanological community has been capable of benefiting from substantial infrastructural developments, for example in relation to satellite missions. Even in such cases, however, volcanologists have taken advantage from missions dedicated to other objectives, such as those related to weather forecasts, climate change, or land evolution. Still, the benefits from a “big science” approach in volcanology appear substantial in terms of mitigated risks and increased security on one side, and potential for efficient, clean, and renewable energy on the other side. In comparison, order of magnitude larger funds dedicated to space exploration, while expanding greatly our fundamental understanding of the Universe, does not seem to bring comparable practical benefits, at least over the short-medium time scale.

Decades of volcano science clearly show that major volcanic eruptions in terms of their size or impacts not only have been big drivers for scientific advance, they also have focused substantial attention by the governments, the media, and the public. However, the momentum gets easily lost, and after an initial promising phase of increased funding opportunities, often volcanoes quickly slip backwards in the priority list. As a volcanological community, we may need to improve our capability to stay on the scene, e.g., by transposing our scientific endeavors into effective narratives which tell of the exciting travel towards unexplored frontiers of our planet Earth, at the same time increasing security and contributing to sustainability and preservation of the delicate equilibria of the planet.

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Acknowledgements

A perspective paper is obviously the result of many years of interactions with colleagues having similar or different, sometimes even diverging, views on what our science misses mostly or mostly benefits from. To all of these colleagues, we are grateful, as literally each of them had much to teach us. We are also grateful to Mike Poland and Steve Sparks who reviewed the manuscript and improved it through many insightful comments and suggestions. One of us (DG) benefited from a grant by EPOS-IT.

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Papale, P., Garg, D. Big volcano science: needs and perspectives. Bull Volcanol 84 , 20 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-022-01524-0

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RESEARCH FOCUS: Volcanic eruptions: From ionosphere to the plumbing system

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Chiara Maria Petrone; RESEARCH FOCUS: Volcanic eruptions: From ionosphere to the plumbing system. Geology 2018;; 46 (10): 927–928. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/focus102018.1

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Volcanic eruptions can have global consequences on the environment, climate and humans. Volcanic plumes, composed of ash and gases, produced during explosive eruptions, can rise many kilometers above the eruptive vent to reach the stratosphere where they can be dispersed globally by the atmospheric circulation. The ash cloud produced by the 1991 Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines, for example, circumnavigated the entire globe in less than a month ( Oppenheimer, 2012 , and references therein).

Large volcanic eruptions inject a substantial amount of sulfur gas and ash particles into the stratosphere ( Fig. 1 ), a large part of which disappear within a few days, but the rest of which are transformed into a mixture of sulfuric acid and water in the form of minute particles. These can stay in the stratosphere for up to one year after the eruption, causing optical effects and scattering solar radiation, which in turn has a cooling effect on the climate ( Robock, 2000 ).

A tropical eruption enhances the pole-to-equator temperature gradient especially in the Northern Hemisphere. When the volcanic aerosol reacts with anthropogenic chlorine, it also creates a chemical effect which contributes to the destruction of stratospheric ozone ( Robock, 2000 ). During the Mount Pinatubo eruption a total of ∼20 million tons of sulfur dioxide were injected in the stratosphere and caused a drop in the air temperature of 0.5 °C during the period 1991–1993 ( Oppenheimer, 2012 ).

Our knowledge of the causal effect between volcanic eruptions and climate cooling ( Robock, 2000 ; Self, 2005 ) has significantly increased since the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo, and we now know that large eruptions in the tropics and at high latitude were responsible for interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past ∼2,500 years ( Sigl et al., 2015 ), which in turn had a global impact on world history (e.g., Oppenheimer, 2015 ; Sigl et al., 2015 ; Luterbacher and Pfister, 2015 ; Pyle, 2017 ).

The long-range consequences of the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora (Indonesia), or those of the 1883 eruption of Krakatau (Indonesia), are described in several publications, both scientific and science-related. Tambora’s eruption was responsible for unusually cold and rainy weather, particularly during the summer of 1816, which is known as the “year without summer.” This had devasting consequences, causing crop failures that induced a severe famine in Europe, Asia, the eastern United States and Canada (e.g., Oppenheimer, 2012 ; Oppenheimer, 2015 ; Luterbacher and Pfister, 2015 ; Pyle, 2017 ).

There is also a claim that the defeat of Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte in the battle of Waterloo (18 June 1815) by the British–Prussian Coalition led by the Duke of Wellington can be partly attributed to the eruption of Tambora. The extremely and unusually wet weather made the battlefield a pool of mud, which delayed the start of the battle, allowing the union of Prussian and Anglo-Dutch forces. As Victor Hugo put it in Les Misérables : “Had it not rained on the night of 17 th /18 th June 1815, the future of Europe would have been different…an unseasonably clouded sky sufficed to bring about the collapse of a World” (cit. in Wheeler and Demarée, 2005 ). This is an unproven claim, but it is possible that an obscure (at the time) volcano might have played a large part in the history of Europe and the human race.

In this issue of Geology , Genge (2018 , p. 835) explores the less well-known interaction of large volcanic eruptions with the ionosphere. Few studies ( de Ragone et al., 2004 , and references therein) have explored the disturbance effect that the sudden injection of energy and momentum, during volcanic eruptions, into the atmosphere can cause on the ionosphere. Any sudden powerful blast (such as a volcanic eruption, strong earthquake or even nuclear blast) can potentially trigger an acoustic gravity wave, which propagates with a frequency longer than a normal acoustic wave ( Ripepe et al., 2016 and reference therein), and is capable of perturbing the atmosphere with different effects depending on the altitude ( de Ragone et al., 2004 ). Here, Genge suggests that electric charges from volcanic plumes can cause electrostatic levitation of volcanic ash, injecting volcanic particles <500 nm in diameter into the ionosphere, disturbing the atmosphere global electric circuit on timescales of 100 s.

The immediate consequence of the injection of charged dust into the ionosphere is a sudden disturbance of climate and, in particular, the short-term formation of volcanic clouds with decreasing cloud cover and precipitation in distal areas, contrasting with increased precipitation in the vicinity of the eruptive plume. The global suppression of cloud formation would increase atmospheric H 2 O content favoring enhanced cloud cover and precipitation in the immediate aftermath of a supervolcano eruption when the ionosphere recovers the normal behavior. Genge explores a new, and somewhat controversial, angle offering a counterintuitive suggestion that a sudden effect on climate (temperature drop, immediate cloud and rain suppression in distal areas, shortly followed by enhanced precipitation, and associated with augmented rain precipitation in the vicinity of the eruptive vent) can occur almost immediately during the eruption and for a few weeks after. As Genge argues, this may offer an explanation for the unusually wet weather in Europe only a month after Tambora’s eruption coeval with the last battle of Emperor Bonaparte.

Abundant rain is common during or immediately after a volcanic eruption and is often associated with devasting and deadly lahars—mudflows produced by heavy rain that remobilize the unconsolidated pyroclastic material on the flank of the volcano. Syn-eruptive lahars have been observed at several volcanoes, including Chaiten (Chile) during the 2008 eruption ( Lara, 2009 ) and Pinatubo associated with the 1991 eruption ( Newhall and Solidum, 2015 ). In both cases, the heavy rain was attributed to the precipitation characteristics of the region. However, the suggestion of Genge’s study that a sudden, very short-term effect on climate might be commonly associated with a very large volcanic eruption might be important when evaluating volcanic hazards at supervolcanoes, and it is an avenue that might be worth exploring. In fact, according to Genge (2018) , plume charge and electrostatic levitation also increase with eruption magnitude.

Ultimately, the potential for climate forcing by volcanic eruptions depends on the size of the volcanic plume and thus the volatile content, composition of the magma, and the ejected volume, which in turn modulates eruption magnitude. Assessing the eruption magnitude and type of the next eruption at a given volcano is one of the current challenges of volcanology. This is not an easy task, even at well-known volcanoes. A multidisciplinary effort is necessary, incorporating data from a variety of observations, starting from the essential and fundamental constant real-time monitoring of a single volcano to the equally essential and fundamental forensic approach, that permits a glimpse into the possible future scenarios of activity by learning from the past eruptive history of the volcano.

The petrology community (i.e., scientists that study formation of the rocks) has achieved a remarkable understanding of the complex plumbing system that fuels a volcano. We now know that beneath a volcano, there is no such a thing as a large pond of magma, but a complex plumbing system where crystals and melt are stored in different pockets and at different levels in a semi-solid state, called crystal mush, with low melt fraction, and that can be remobilized at different but usually short timescales (e.g., Bachmann and Bergantz, 2008 ; Cooper and Kent, 2014 ; Cashman et al., 2017 ). By studying the minerals forming the rocks erupted from a volcano, we are able to understand how and on which sort of timescales the crystal mush is remobilized and magma accumulated before eruption (e.g., Costa et al., 2008 ; Druitt et al., 2012 ; Kilgour et al., 2014 ; Cooper, 2017 ; Petrone et al., 2018 ), which is an important piece of information to evaluate volcanic hazards assessment. We have made substantial progress in our understanding of magmatic processes leading to different types and size of eruptions, but there is still a lot of work to do.

Data & Figures

A moderate Vulcanian eruption at Sakurajima Volcano (Japan) on 22 July 2013.

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Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing

Volcanic eruptions are common, with more than 50 volcanic eruptions in the United States alone in the past 31 years. These eruptions can have devastating economic and social consequences, even at great distances from the volcano. Fortunately many eruptions are preceded by unrest that can be detected using ground, airborne, and spaceborne instruments. Data from these instruments, combined with basic understanding of how volcanoes work, form the basis for forecasting eruptions—where, when, how big, how long, and the consequences.

Accurate forecasts of the likelihood and magnitude of an eruption in a specified timeframe are rooted in a scientific understanding of the processes that govern the storage, ascent, and eruption of magma. Yet our understanding of volcanic systems is incomplete and biased by the limited number of volcanoes and eruption styles observed with advanced instrumentation. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing identifies key science questions, research and observation priorities, and approaches for building a volcano science community capable of tackling them. This report presents goals for making major advances in volcano science.

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National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing . Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/24650. Import this citation to: Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager

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How to Write a Report on Volcanoes

Facts on Volcanology

Geology reports don't have to lull readers to dreamland when you explain how a natural force can explode with more power than an atomic bomb, obliterate most of an island, change the weather and hurl shock waves around the globe. These are some of the incredible effects your report can describe when you discuss volcanoes -- one of Earth's most powerful forces.

Why Volcanoes Exist

Pressure causes a multitude of physical actions to occur. Combine heat and pressure and you may create a volcano. Begin your report by explaining how magma -- hot, liquid rock below the earth -- rises because its density is less than the density of the surrounding rocks. The distance the magma moves vertically depends on factors such as the mass of the rocks it must go through and its density. Under intense pressure, dissolved gas in the magma helps propel it upward where it can make it to the surface and into the air depending on the volcano's type. Geologists call magma "lava" when it leaves a volcano via an eruption or vent.

Define a Volcano's Status

According to the Global Volcanism Program, an extinct volcano is one people don't expect to erupt again, while an active volcano is one that has erupted in the last 10,000 years. Place these important facts into your report along with the definition of dormant: a volcano expected to erupt one day, but which hasn't in the last 10,000 years.

Not All Volcanoes Go "BOOM!"

Talk about various types of volcanoes, such as Mt. St. Helens, a powerful stratovolcano that explodes with fury, hurling gas, rocks and ash high into the air. Shield volcanoes like Hawaii's Kilauea don't erupt as violently -- they create rivers of lava that flow down the mountainside. Because the lava in shield volcanoes has low viscosity, they erupt less violently, creating gentle slopes around the mountain. Stratovolcanoes have high-viscosity lava, causing them to erupt more violently and form steep-sided slopes. Magma can also flow from fractures in a volcano without causing an explosive eruption -- scientists call this a "curtain of fire."

Location, Location, Location

You don't see too many volcanoes around the neighborhood because they only form in certain places -- including under water. Submarine volcanoes sit an average of 2,600 meters (8,500 feet) below the oceans. According to some theories, over a million submarine volcanoes dot the ocean floor. The continents rest on tectonic plates in motion below the planet's surface. Explain how you find most volcanoes in places where these plates move away from one another at divergent plate boundaries, or towards one another at convergent plate boundaries. Hot spots, such as the one beneath Iceland, also create volcanoes. A hot spot is a location where magma has made its way through the Earth's crust.

How Volcanoes Affect the World

Krakatoa erupted with fury in 1883, flinging ash up to 80 kilometers (49.7 miles) into the air, which lowered Earth's temperatures until 1888. The eruption also created a shock wave that circled the Earth seven times and triggered a massive tsunami that killed over 36,000 people. Lava flows are always a concern when volcanoes cause them near populated areas. Explain how lava usually moves too slowly to engulf people, but pyroclastic flows can travel down volcano slopes at up to 200 kilometers (124.3 feet) per hour. Composed of ash and hot gas, these flows kill anything in their path. On the positive side, tell your readers how volcanoes can create new islands, produce fertile soil, and produce pumice and other useful products.

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Find Your Next Great Science Fair Project! GO

How to Write Up an Elementary Volcano Science Project

Jennifer tolbert, 27 jun 2018.

The baking soda and vinegar volcano is a favorite science experiment among elementary students. It is important to make your presentation stand out from the other students at the science fair with an exceptional presentation. Also be sure to follow the teacher's guidelines or science fair guidelines to ensure that your score is as high as possible.

Write an introduction. The introduction is your first impression. Be sure it is concise and accurately introduces exactly what you studied in the experiment. This is also an excellent place to include fun facts, background information or general volcano information. The reaction is due to the properties of bases and acids and would be important to include in your experiment. Identify the variable that you are testing, such as the ratio to vinegar and baking soda. Or maybe you would like to see what other base-acid combinations would produce similar eruptions.

Write a hypothesis. Remember a hypothesis is an educated guess or prediction. Explain what you believe will happen during the experiment based upon your previous knowledge or research. The hypothesis should be written in a declarative sentence.

List your materials. Provide a detailed list of all of the materials you used when you conducted the experiment. Be sure to also include how much of each material was used. Explain whether you made your own volcano or bought a kit.

Write your procedure. The procedure should be written step-by-step, in detail. If someone else could easily reproduce your experiment, you have probably written a fairly clear procedure. Be detailed, accurate and logical in your explanation. Procedures are usually written in a numerical list format.

Explain your results. Be sure your results reflect exactly what you were testing. You can provide observations or measurements. If applicable, you can create a chart or graph to describe any numerical data you may have taken. You may want to describe what the eruptions looked like, how long they lasted or how explosive the reactions were.

Write a conclusion. Basically, sum up what you learned during the experiment. Say whether or not your hypothesis was correct. Point out patterns in your data and explain if they were consistent with your previous knowledge of the subject. Also, do not forget to relate how that information can be used in the real world. This would also be a good spot to place recommendations if there are changes you would make to the experiment.

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Eruption of Mount Saint Helen Volcano Research Paper

Introduction, pyroclastic flows, immediate effects of the eruption, historical impacts.

Volcanic eruptions occur when lava and gas are emitted from the volcanic vent. The most common effects of this explosion are population displacement when masses of people are sometimes forced to escape the flood of flowing lava. Volcanic explosions also lead to temporary food scarcity and frequent volcanic ash landslides known as Lahar. The most hazardous form of volcanic eruption is referred to as ‘glowing avalanche.’ This occurs because the exploded mixture of volcanic hot liquefied rock and gas contents which has temperatures ranging from one thousand two hundred degrees is formed (Contributor, 2929). The overflowing fusion is formed mainly from pieces of rocks that melt as a result of high temperatures. The discharge flows down the perimeter of the volcano at a high speed of about 100 kilometers per hour and they can cover an area of about 10 km or even to 40 km from where they originated from (Contributor, 2929). This paper will concentrate on the eruption of the Mount St. Helens volcano, looking at its history, the explosion, the immediate consequences of the eruption, and the historic impact on the climate and human life.

Mount St. Helens before the 1980 eruptions

(Pre-1980 Mount St. Helens with view of Mt. Hood to the left., 2020) Mount St. Helens is a volcanic mountain situated in the state of Southwest Washington. It is the Cascade Range’s most active volcano, a mountainous region that ranges from British Columbia to northern California, across Washington and Oregon. Mount St. Helens has alternated between intervals of volcanic explosions and prolonged periods of relative calm for many years. It is an active stratovolcano and is 2,539 m (8,330 ft.) above sea level in height, and it is a dacite volcano (Contributor, 2020). Dacite is a type of igneous rock with a middle to high silica concentration of the source lava/magma, which is flammable and explosive when it explodes on the surface.

As a part of the Cascade Mountains, St. Helens and its corresponding volcano are the culmination of the volcanic activity of the Juan de Fuca Plate under the North American Plate. The molten rocks of the collapsing Juan de Fuca Plate fuel the magma channels of the volcanoes in the Cascade Range, including that of the Mountain. It is suspected that the volcano was created from four eruptive phases, beginning 275,000 years ago (Contributor, 2020). It is the most active volcano in the Cascade during the Holocene period.

Mount St. Helens after the 1980 eruption

At the beginning of the 1980s, magma began pouring into Mt. St. Helens, prompting the volcano to protrude. The magma protrusion continued to develop until it became fragile, and the bulge and part of the summit collapsed into a debris avalanche. The pressure that had been building was released during an eruption which included small quantities of andesite/dacite magma. Not long after the explosion, there was a massive Plinian eruption of ash and tephra. Many minor earthquakes occurred prior to the outburst of ash in March 1980, when some of the volcano’s pressure was released. It continued to have minor eruptions until the main one of May 1980. This major activity resulted in a massive mushroom cloud of ash depositing 520 million tons of ash over 22,000 square miles. The eruption reached 1,300 feet from the bottom of the volcano and destroyed the surrounding landscape (Usgs.gov., 2020). The massive emission of ash resulted in the emergence of lahar in rivers near the volcano.

Lahars are mudflows that are composed of alluvial deposits and water mud. They typically occur with glaciers on or around volcanoes. They can happen with volcanic activity, melting glaciers rapidly due to the heat of the outburst. They are some of the most dangerous volcanic hazards and are able to fly 40-50 miles per hour (Contributor, 2020). Lahars triggered by the 1980 explosion of Mt. St. Helen damaged 185 kilometers of road and 200 residences (Contributor, 2929). Events such as this have happened previously in this region and will occur in the future. It was in the year 2005 when Mt. St. Helens last erupted.

Pyroclastic flows produce a high-density mixture of hot lava blocks, pumice, ash, and molten gas. They pass at an extremely high speed down the volcanic slopes, and along the valleys. Well before St. Helen exploded, pyroclastic flows rose from the top of the volcano, releasing a mixture of hot sedimentary rocks and gasses created by the dark fiery clouds. According to scientific discoveries, anyone close to the Pyroclastic explosion would have died immediately from the high temperatures of lava, ash, pumice, and gas, which could be up to 1300*F (Contributor, 2020). The flow is what killed all forms of life below the mountain’s surroundings. This helped pave the way for a completely new environment following the eruption of St. Helen.

The eruption caused tremendous damage to both property and humanity. A total of 57 individuals were killed and over 200 homes were burned (Contributor, 2020). Victims died from the inhalation of hot volcanic ash by asphyxiation, and others from thermal exposure and other injuries (Contributor, 2020). Lateral blasts, rubble tidal waves, mudflows, and floods caused extensive destruction to the land and civil works. All houses and related man-made constructions in the immediate area of Spirit Lake were submerged. The cloud of smoke and gas managed to reach 15 miles into the atmosphere, leaving the ash in a dozen regions. The transport infrastructure was seriously affected by the devastation and destruction of more than 185 miles of rail and highways, and the drainage networks were clogged with ash throughout the Northwest. Damage to farmland, civil infrastructure and timber was projected at $1.1 billion. The U.S. government allocated $950 million in emergency funds to assist with restoration and rehabilitation, which took ten weeks to finish the clearance of ash in the areas affected (Contributor, 2020). Until now, the territory all around the volcano is still rebounding from the impacts.

The planet had little pre-eruption knowledge prior to the St. Helen catastrophe. There was no way of determining volcanic disturbances. All this, though, changed in the wake of St. Helen’s. During the eruption disturbance gradients involved avalanches, mudflows, lateral blasts, tephra fall and pyroclastic flow. This has offered scientists a tremendous amount of study and analysis. While the St. Helens eruption was devastating, it helped make scientific and ecological advancement possible. Brand plants and other different species started to grow and flourish in a brand-new environmental setting which was never possible previously (Contributor, 2020). Owing to this the scientific world was able to make progress like never before. In the area of natural disaster science, society has started to gain more awareness.

Initially, the eruption of Mount Saint Helen Volcano was thought to be an earthquake, but later on, turned into one of the most destructive and devastating volcanic activities not only in the U.S. but worldwide as well. The explosion of the Mt. St. Helens Volcano would forever affect the world’s understanding of how to assess future seismic events and to assist in the safety of population living near or in those hazardous areas. Throughout the years, slight volcanic activities continue to follow. Many experiences from this specific incident have been realized, enabling the U.S. government, as well as other nations, to take early precautions in anticipation of such catastrophic events.

Contributor, M., (2020). Mount St. Helens Eruption: Facts & Information . LiveScience. Web.

Usgs.gov. (2020). Post-1980 Mount St. Helens with View of Mt Hood to the Left . [online] Web.

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IvyPanda. (2024, March 27). Eruption of Mount Saint Helen Volcano. https://ivypanda.com/essays/eruption-of-mount-saint-helen-volcano/

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IvyPanda . 2024. "Eruption of Mount Saint Helen Volcano." March 27, 2024. https://ivypanda.com/essays/eruption-of-mount-saint-helen-volcano/.

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Bibliography

IvyPanda . "Eruption of Mount Saint Helen Volcano." March 27, 2024. https://ivypanda.com/essays/eruption-of-mount-saint-helen-volcano/.

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How To Make A Volcano

A volcano is one of the most unique natural occurrences of the planet earth. Further, the entire phenomenon is a dangerously beautiful sight that has been one of the most researched topics for climatologists and scientists worldwide. Moreover, some of the most iconic mountain peaks strewn all over the world are home to volcanoes that caused incidences of great historical and geographical importance since Planet Earth came into existence. Thus, we will learn how to make a volcano in this article.

Introduction to How to Make a Volcano

To understand the chemistry behind a Volcanic eruption, one needs to first understand how the eruption occurs. Thus, to make the process of Volcanic eruption easy to understand, one can conduct a very easy experiment using simple products readily available at home.

What Do you Need for the Experiment?

The experiment consists of two components:

• The apparatus for the experiment
• The compounds for the Volcanic eruption

Apparatus required –

• 1-litre plastic bottle
• Strips of newspapers
• Mixing Bowl to mix glue and paper mache for the conical peak

Volcanic compounds –

• Bicarbonate Soda
• Food colour (orange and yellow)

Experimental Procedure of How to Make a Volcano

The apparatus.

The plastic bottle is precisely cut along the middle and shaped into a conical form like a volcanic peak. Secure the cone in place with the cello tape firmly. For a better and more homogeneous look, glue the paper strips to the bottle design. Finally, it gets a proper conical shape like a mountain peak.

It is double ensured that the base of the conical-shaped bottle is well secured. Seal it by using tapes for extra protection. Now, wait for the glued papers are dry and the bottle to be stable enough to not wobble on a flat surface when you place it. Finally, it is time to create lava.

To add a bit of a more realistic appeal to the experiment, one can give a nice rough shape and appearance to the conical peak. Thus, take paper mache and glue mix and also colour the peak well. Black and brown are the perfect colour backdrop for a lava flow to look prominent.

The Lava compound

Approximately 4 to 5 tablespoons of Bicarbonate soda is ideal for the experiment. First, mix the food colour with vinegar and keep it aside.

The Process

Using a funnel drop the bicarbonate soda evenly at the bottom of the container. Once they are evenly distributed it’s time for the most crucial segment. The main catalyst of the volcanic reaction i.e the Vinegar.

Using the same funnel quickly pour the dyed vinegar into the bottle and remove the funnel as soon as possible.

The Observation

Within a few seconds of interaction between the bicarbonate powder and the vinegar solution, there is a massive effervescence that causes the excessive coloured foam to erupt out and flow alongside the conical body of the mountain lookalike bottle.

The Conclusion of the Experiment on How to Make a Volcano

Even though the experiment doe not reenacts the exact volcanic reaction that occurs naturally. However, it gives a basic idea about what Lava looks like when it erupts.

Facts about Volcanoes

Volcanic eruptions can occur both on land and water. Moreover, the pacific ring of fire is a famous geological hotspot. It consists of volcanic locations both on the surface as well as underwater.

Magma is the actual compound that is present deep inside the earth’s surface which on eruption is called Lava.

There are over 1500 volcanoes all around the world. While some are dormant, there are many that are active and are in a constant state of eruption.

Magma reaches the surface and erupts into hot liquid lava through the lava tubes that run from the Earth’s magma to the surface.

Causes of Volcanic Eruption

A volcanic eruption can occur due to many reasons. Some of the primary reasons for volcanic eruptions include

• Tectonic plate shift
• Increased liquefied gaseous remnants in the magma
• Excessive rise in the temperature melts the rocks causing overflowing into the lava tubes.

FAQ on How to Make a Volcano

Question 1: What are the effects of Volcanic Eruption?

Answer 1: In addition to excessive spewing of poisonous gases and substances on the surface, Volcanic eruption can cause massive destruction in form of lives as well as infrastructure.

Question 2: Is volcanic eruption harmful?

Answer 2: Volcanic eruption brings numerous harmful gaseous compounds to the surface along with hot bubbling chemicals. Moreover, the lava has a drastically high melting temperature that can cause severe damage. In addition, the lighter solid particles can flow for hundreds of miles and cause breathing and skin problems in humans and wildlife alike.

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