research about high school dropouts

Why Students Drop Out

Even though school completion rates have continually grown during much of past 100 years, dropping out of school persists as a problem that interferes with educational system efficiency and the most straightforward and satisfying route to individual educational goals for young people. Doll, Eslami, and Walters (2013) present data from seven nationally representative studies (spanning more than 50 years) regarding reasons students drop out of high school. Some excerpts are presented below in tables; however, for a complete discussion, please see the original article: “ Understanding Why Students Drop Out of High School, According to Their Own Reports ”

The selected tables are presented in opposite order than they appear in the article so as to present the most recent data first. Note also that survey questions varied from study to study (database to database) so caution should be taken in making comparisons across years and studies.

Included in the tables presented is an analysis of whether the reasons presented are considered “push,” “pull,” or “falling out” factors. The following briefly presents an explanation from Doll et al. (2013).

Jordan et al. (1994) explained pressures on students of push and pull dropout factors. A student is pushed out when adverse situations within the school environment lead to consequences, ultimately resulting in dropout. . . . [S]tudents can be pulled out when factors inside the student divert them from completing school. . . . Watt and Roessingh (1994) added a third factor called falling out of school, which occurs when a student does not show significant academic progress in schoolwork and becomes apathetic or even disillusioned with school completion. It is not necessarily an active decision, but rather a “side-effect of insufficient personal and educational support” (p. 293).

The National Dropout Prevention Center (NDPC) exists to support those who work to improve student success and graduation rates. NDPC offers a wide range of resources and services to schools, districts, regional agencies, and states. Contact NDPC by (email:  [email protected]  or phone: (864-642-6372.).

TypeRankCause of DropoutOverall Frequency PercentageMalesFemales
OverallPushed out—10 factors48.753.147.1
Pulled out—8 factors36.930.440.0
Falling out—3 factors14.316.512.9
Total100.0100.0100.0

Push1Missed too many school days43.544.142.7
Pull2Thought it would be easier to get GED40.541.539.1
Push3Was getting poor grades/failing school38.040.135.2
Fall4Did not like school36.640.132.0
Push5Could not keep up with schoolwork32.129.735.3
Push8Thought could not complete course requirements25.622.939.0
Push9Could not get along with teachers25.027.721.6
Fall12Did not feel belonged there19.919.919.9
Push13Could not get along with others18.717.720.1
Push14Was suspended16.922.99.0
Fall17Changed schools and did not like new one11.214.57.0
Push18Thought would fail competency test10.59.012.3
Push19Did not feel safe10.010.59.5
Push20Was expelled9.915.23.0!
Pull6Was Pregnant27.827.8
Pull11Had to support family20.017.623.0
Pull15To care for a member of the family15.515.216.0
Pull16Became a father/mother of a baby14.46.225.0
Pull21Married or planned to get married6.83.011.6
Pull7Got a job27.833.520.3
Pull10Could not work at same time21.723.119.9
663375288
Source. Dalton, Glennie, Ingels, and Wirt (2009, p.22); Dropout Indicator 29.

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research about high school dropouts

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  Dropouts in America: How severe is the problem? 
What do we know about intervention and prevention?

On January 13, 2001, CRP held its first conference on high school dropouts and reform policies to tackle this problem. Co-sponsored with Achieve Inc., it gathered more than 17 experts in the subject and produced 14 commissioned papers. This page summarizes the working papers presented at the conference.

The following papers were presented during the conference held on January 13, 2001, in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and co-sponsored with .

 

" "

by Nettie Legters and Kerri Kerr, Johns Hopkins University

This study investigates the types and effects of practices aimed at promoting ninth grade success. The current high school reform movement has drawn attention to reform practices that schools might use to ease ninth graders' transition into high school (Newmann and Wehlage, 1995), but little is known about the character, extent of use, and impact on student outcomes of these reforms. The authors administered a survey to all 175 Maryland high schools in spring 2000, with an 80% response rate, providing data on the kinds of transitional practices and programs the state's high schools are currently using with their ninth graders. The data will be used to create a descriptive typology of school practices and interventions aimed at ninth graders that includes frequency of use across schools, the number of years practices have been in place and the percentage of ninth graders affected by practices. State-level data will then enable the authors to assess the relationship between the various reform practices and student attendance, promotion, dropout rates, and achievement, controlling for school context variables such as size, percent minority and average student SES. Qualitative data in the form of site visits and interviews to be collected in fall 2000 will supplement these analyses with richer information about how practices for ninth graders are being implemented at selected sites.


" "
by Robert Balfanz and Nettie Legters, Johns Hopkins University

While it is generally assumed that the high dropout rates in urban districts are at least in part due to low performing high schools, little is known about how many of these failing schools there are, where they are located, and who attends them. This paper uses the National Center for Education Statistics' Common Core of Data to develop a demographic portrait of low-performing public high schools in the 35 largest central cities in the U.S. Using the indicator of "holding power," or the proportion of students retained between the 9th and 12th grades, the authors estimate the number of central city high schools with high drop out rates, examined their distribution and demographics, and identify specific districts where the problem is most acute. The initial findings reveal that for recent cohorts analyzed (i.e. 1989-1993 and 1992-1996), about half of the sampled central city high schools have a holding power of 50% or less. This suggests the urban dropout problem is concentrated in between 200 to 300 schools. The data also shows that there is considerable variation across the 35 largest central cities in the number and percent of high schools with weak holding power.

 


" "
by Walter Haney, Boston College
This paper examines the effect that the full implementation of the TAAS system (i.e., passing a test for high school graduation) has had on the grade transition ratios in Texas. Because the Texas Education Agency's definition of what counted as a dropout has changed several times over the past decade, Haney examines the possible effects of the TAAS on grade enrollment patterns and high school completion. The analysis reveals that one of the effects the implementation of the TAAS system (phased in from 1990-91 to 1992-93) has been a dramatic decrease in the progress of Black and Hispanic students from grade 9 to high school graduation three years later; from roughly 60% in the 1970's to 50% since 1992-93 (Haney, 2000). Further, he finds that since 1992, Black and Hispanic students' progress from grade 9 through high school graduation is being stymied in grade 9 before they take the test. The paper gives special attention to students' overagedness in Texas high schools and the increase in retention in ninth grade.

 


" "
by Martin Carnoy, Susanna Loeb, and Tiffany L. Smith, School of Education, Stanford University

This paper uses information at both state and school level to look at the educational progression of students in Texas. Looking at trends over time, starting in the early 1980's, the authors look at trends over time to estimate the potential impact of the 1984 reform and the high stakes testing that was implemented in 1990-91. While the authors do not find evidence that testing increased dropout or retention rates, they do identify a striking propensity to retain students, especially low-income and minority students, in the 9th grade, which increased substantially following the 1984 reform.

Rising pass rates on the TAAS, the test administered to students and the primary measure of school success, suggest that Texas's goal of improving educational outcomes is being met. Nevertheless, Carnoy et al. show that high school graduation rates for 8th, 9th, and 10th graders rose at best slightly in the 1990's, and then only in the past few years. This is troubling because school graduation rates in Texas are relatively low in Texas, particularly among minority groups. The results suggest that the state accountability system based on TAAS scores may have had positive effects on high school outcomes in the 1990's if the "official" dropout rate is a "good" measure of the probability of high school completion.

 


" "
by Jacqueline Ancess and Suzanna Wichterle Ort, National Center for Restructuring Education, Schools, & Teaching

This paper presents evidence from an eight-year longitudinal study of a reform initiative known as the Coalition Campus Schools Project (CCSP). CCSP was a collaboration of the New York City Board of Education, the United Federation of Teachers, and a consortium of foundations, whose primary purpose was to establish a model for the reform of large failing urban secondary schools. In many instances, the CCSP attempted to replace large schools with smaller, autonomous schools organized for teachers to know students well and provide them with an education focused on intellectual development. The paper addresses the research question: What organizational and pedagogical practices affect student outcomes, in particular graduation and dropout rates? Relying on a review of interviews, classroom observations, and official Board reports, the authors argue that students' school success is positively related to small school and class size, as well as factors like a performance-based assessment system and the organization of school structure, curriculum, instruction, assessment, and professional development.

 


" "
by Ruth Curran Neild, Frank F. Furstenberg, Jr., University of Pennsylvania; and Scott Stoner-Eby, University of North Carolina

Much of the literature on school dropout implies a randomness to the timing of when leaving school becomes more appealing than staying. In this paper, we examine how one crisis point in urban students’ educational careers – the transition to high school – affects the likelihood of dropping out. We find that despite an extensive set of pre-high school controls for family, achievement, aspirations, school engagement, and peer relationships, ninth grade outcomes add substantially to our ability to predict dropout. The importance of the ninth grade year suggests that reducing the enormous dropout rates in large cities will require attention to the transition to high school.

 


" "
by Russell Rumberger, University of California, Santa Barbara

This paper examines why students drop out of school and what can be done about it. After briefly summarizing who drops out of school, the paper reviews the theoretical and empirical research that attempts to explain why students drop out of school based on two different conceptual frameworks that are both useful and necessary to understand this complex phenomenon. One framework is based on an individual perspective that focuses on individual factors associated with dropping out; the other is based on an institutional perspective that focuses on the contextual factors found in students’ families, schools, communities and peers. The paper also discusses the extent to which these frameworks can be used explain differences in dropout rates among social groups, particularly racial and ethnic minorities. The next section of the paper examines various strategies to address the dropout, reviewing examples of both programmatic and systemic solutions, and the extent to which policy can promote them. The final section of the paper discusses whether the United States has the capacity and the will to reduce dropout rates and eliminate disparities in dropout rates among racial and ethnic groups.

 


" "
by James E. Rosenbaum and Stefanie DeLuca, Northwestern University

This paper examines the ways in which students' feeling unsafe or isolated in their school environment may affect their school behaviors and their decisions to remain in school. Further, it examines how teachers respond to students experiencing these threats. The authors use the National Educational Longitudinal Study (NELS) data, a national survey which follows students from eighth grade to six years later, so it allows a good national sample for studying the incidence of dropouts and a long period to examine its antecedents.

The authors present evidence that a lack of safety is strongly related to dropping out and withdrawal behaviors. Students who feel unsafe and threatened are more likely to cut classes, and drop out of school, even after controls for SES, test scores, track placement and grades. They also find that the disparagement of teachers is strongly related to safety concerns, threats, and dropouts, and that it mediates teachers' influence on further dropouts. Rosenbaum's and DeLuca's analyses suggest that students are more likely to feel unsafe and to get threats of physical harm if they do not fit in, lack friends, and are put down by students. These safety concerns, and the informal peer relations, affect student school withdrawal behaviors, and dropouts. In some cases, they conclude, perceived teacher disparagement may have stronger relationships with dropping out than do peer influences, which they propose to investigate further.

 


" "
by Robert Hauser, Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison

This paper presents an up-to-date demographic profile on dropout trends between 1972 and 1998, examining variables by race-ethnicity, socioeconomic status, geographic location (region and metropolitan), age, sex, and grade in school. The author expands on previous demographic work on high school dropouts by adding parent's characteristics of children's school enrollment and completion.

The author examines grade-specific dropout data from the Current Population Survey and relates it to household characteristics. Hauser's preliminary findings suggest large socioeconomic and geographic effects on dropout, which more than account for the observed race-ethnic differentials in the period from 1973 to 1989. Based on these findings, Hauser analyzes what may happen in the future under high-stakes testing regimes.

 


" "
by James McPartland and Will Jordan, Center for the Social Organization of Schooling, Johns Hopkins University

While current research indicates that a variety of different interventions may be used to reduce dropout rates, relatively little is known about models for changing entire high schools with adequate support services. Based on his team's work in Baltimore and Philadelphia, and selected other urban districts, McPartland describes both the base of knowledge and the problems in practice of changing an entire high school geared toward dropout prevention. He considers the range of interventions he and his team have implemented through the Talent Development Model. These fall into three broad categories: organizational factors, instructional factors (e.g. 9th grade curricula, common core curricula), and professional development. McPartland evaluates how well the various interventions have worked and how an entire organization would need to change to support these interventions. He also outlines what the barriers have been to developing and disseminating a model for high school change, and what kinds of policy support at local, state, and federal levels would help.

 


" "
by Valerie Lee and David Burkam, University of Michigan

This paper uses the High School Effectiveness Supplement to the National Educational Longitudinal Study (NELS) to investigate dropping out between 10 and 12th grade. What is the relationship between dropping out as an outcome and variables such as school structure, school organization, and students' social and economic background ("social capital")? The sample includes a nationally representative sample of U.S. high schools in urban and suburban areas, both public and private (Catholic and elite private). In addition to student background variables, the authors analyze the relationship between dropout rates and students' school performance (grades) and the courses they take.

 


" "
by Mark Dynarski, Mathematica Policy Research Associates

This work presents major findings from a federally funded evaluation of the second phase of the U.S. Department of Education's School Dropout Demonstration Assistance Program (SDDAP). The evaluation considered how dropout-prevention programs operated, how programs used their funds, what kinds of students attended the programs, and whether programs improved student outcomes. More than 20 programs and 10,000 students were part of the evaluation.

The key finding from the evaluation is that most programs made almost no difference in preventing dropping out in general. Programs may have had great success in turning around the lives of some students, but in most programs, program experiences did not have much of an effect on students. This confirms earlier work indicating that it is extremely difficult to identify risk factors (i.e., students who have been thought to have some "risk factors" often persist, while students who showed none often dropped out.) Drawing on examples from the various sites, the author argues that ongoing, school-based personalized attention from adults that may conceivably make more of a difference than broad intervention programs.

 


" "
James Kemple, Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation

This paper summarizes findings from MDRC's ongoing Career Academies evaluation, and addresses the questions: To what extent does the Career Academy approach change educational, employment, and youth development outcomes for high school students at greater or lesser risk of school failure?How do the manner and context in which Career Academy programs are implemented influence their effects on student outcomes?

The Career Academy approach is one of the oldest and most widely established high school restructuring and school-to-work transition reforms in the United States. Career Academies have existed for more than 30 years and have been implemented in more than 1,500 high schools across the country. The durability and broad appeal of the Academy approach can be attributed, in part, to the fact that its core features offer direct responses to a number of problems that have been identified in large comprehensive high schools. Career Academies attempt to create more supportive and personalized learning environments through a school-within-a-school structure. There has been a great deal of research on the Academy approach. Nevertheless, previous studies have been unable to determine reliably whether differences between Academy students' high school experiences and outcomes and those of other students result from the Academy itself or from the program's student targeting or its selection practices.





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A Public Health Perspective on School Dropout and Adult Outcomes: A Prospective Study of Risk and Protective Factors from Age 5 to 27

Jennifer e. lansford.

1 Center for Child and Family Policy, Duke University, Box 90545, Durham, NC 27708, USA

Kenneth A. Dodge

Gregory s. pettit.

2 Human Development and Family Studies, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USA, ude.nrubua@tittepg

John E. Bates

3 Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Indiana University, 1101 E. 10th St., Bloomington, IN 47405, USA, ude.anaidni@jsetab

This study aimed to advance a public health perspective on links between education and health by examining risk and protective factors that might alter the relation between dropping out of high school and subsequent negative outcomes.

A community sample (N = 585) was followed from age 5 to 27. Data included self and parent reports, peer sociometric nominations, and observed mother-teen interactions.

High school dropouts were up to four times more likely to experience individual negative outcomes (being arrested, fired, or on government assistance, using illicit substances, having poor health) by age 27 and twenty-four times more likely compared to graduates to experience as many as four or more negative outcomes. Links between dropout and negative outcomes were more pronounced for individuals who were in low SES families at age 5, rejected by elementary school peers, and became parents at a younger age; the dropout effect was decreased for individuals who had been treated for a behavioral, emotional, or drug problem by age 24.

Conclusions

Addressing school dropout as a public health problem has the potential to improve the lives of dropouts and reduce societal costs of dropping out.

National estimates suggest that each high school dropout costs the United States economy at least $250,000 over the course of his or her lifetime because of greater reliance on welfare and Medicaid, more criminal activity, poorer health, and lower tax contributions [ 1 ]. On average, the annual median income of a high school dropout is $25,000, compared to $46,000 for an individual with a high school or equivalent degree [ 1 ]. A higher proportion of dropouts than high school graduates is unemployed and incarcerated [ 2 , 3 ], and dropouts have poorer health, even controlling for income and other sociodemographic disparities associated with dropping out [ 4 ].

School dropout has not typically been conceived as a public health issue, but the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the American Public Health Association have advocated such a reframing because good health is predicted by good education, and health disparities are predicted by educational disparities [ 5 , 6 ]. Education is a strong predictor of health outcomes including mortality [ 7 ], likely in part because less education is highly correlated with health risk behaviors such as smoking, being overweight, and being sedentary and in part because more education leads to more income which can then purchase housing in safer neighborhoods, healthier food, better health care, and the like [ 8 , 9 ]. Estimates suggest that promoting education to reduce health disparities could save 8 times more lives than could be saved through medical advances in drugs and devices [ 10 ].

Despite the well-documented negative outcomes associated with dropping out of school, not all individuals who drop out experience this litany of negative life outcomes. The purpose of this study was to examine risk and protective factors that might alter the link between dropping out of high school and subsequent socially relevant outcomes in adulthood: receiving government assistance (e.g., food stamps), being fired, being arrested, using illicit drugs, and being in poor health. We selected these outcomes because each is substantially more likely for individuals who drop out of high school than for graduates [ 1 – 4 ]. With annual data on a community sample initially recruited before kindergarten and followed to age 27, we were able to test risk and protective factors assessed during childhood, adolescence, and young adulthood that might alter the link between dropping out and subsequent socially relevant outcomes.

Participants

We recruited target participants when they entered kindergarten in 1987 or 1988 at three sites: Knoxville and Nashville, TN and Bloomington, IN [ 11 ]. We approached parents during kindergarten pre-registration and asked if they would participate in a longitudinal study of child development. Approximately 75% agreed. About 15% of children at the targeted schools did not pre-register. We recruited late enrolling families on the first day of school or by subsequent contact. The sample consisted of 585 families at the first assessment (52% male; 81% European American, 17% African American, 2% other ethnic groups). The sample reflected a wide range of socioeconomic backgrounds, ranging from 8 to 66 on the Hollingshead index, which was computed from parental education and occupation levels when the child was in kindergarten ( M = 39.53, SD = 14.01) [ 12 ]. We assessed participants annually through age 27. Parents provided written informed consent each year for their own and their child's participation, until participants reached age 18, when they began providing their own written informed consent. Institutional review boards at the universities involved in this study approved the research protocols. The present sample included 529 individuals (90% of the original sample) who provided enough data (i.e., continued to participate in the study in the years after high school graduation would have been anticipated) to determine whether they had completed high school by the age of 24, the cut-off age used by the U.S. Department of Education in most federal reports of dropouts. Compared to the 56 original participants who did not provide enough data to determine whether they completed high school, the 529 participants with sufficient data had higher SES at age 5 and were more likely to be female, but did not differ on ethnicity. The sample size varies somewhat across variables; the smallest n (383) was for the observed mother-adolescent relationship quality variable at age 16, described below, as this required a lengthy observation session that not all participants completed.

Procedures and Measures

Dropout status.

We used target participants' annual reports of school enrollment and degrees obtained to determine which participants dropped out before completing high school. We defined dropouts as those individuals who had not reported completing high school by the age of 24. Given that participants began kindergarten in 1987 or 1988, anticipated graduation would have been in 2000 or 2001 (or a year or two later if students were retained in grade). Nationally, 13.5 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds in 2000 were not in high school and had not completed high school [ 13 ], very similar to the 14 percent of our sample that had dropped out by age 24 ( n = 74).

Socially Relevant Outcomes during Adulthood

At age 27, target participants reported on five socially relevant domains that were summed to create an index of health and well-being (see Table 1 for descriptive statistics). First, receipt of government assistance was assessed by asking whether participants (a) live in a public housing project or are on the waiting list for public or subsidized housing, (b) are receiving help from the government in paying rent, (c) are receiving welfare such as TANF or WIC for themselves or their dependents, (d) are covered by Medicaid or another public assistance program that pays for health care, or (e) receive food stamps. If participants received any of those forms of government assistance, they were coded as 1; if not, they were coded as 0. Although individuals receiving these forms of government assistance may perceive them positively, they generally have been regarded as negative outcomes for society in the dropout literature [ 1 ]. Second, participants were asked how many times in their life they had been fired or laid off (never or once coded 0, two or more times coded 1). Third, participants were asked if they had been arrested since the age of 18 (0 = no, 1 = yes). Fourth, participants reported how often they had used illicit drugs for non-medical purposes in the last six months (0 = never, 1 = one or more times). Fifth, participants rated their physical health (0 = excellent, very good, or good, 1 = fair or poor). We created a composite variable reflecting the number of socially relevant negative outcomes each participant experienced by summing ratings on these 5 domains (range = 0 to 5).

Comparisons of High School Dropouts versus Graduates on Socially Relevant Outcomes at Age 27

Age 27 Outcome% of Dropouts% of Graduates χ
Government assistance67.917.665.48, p < .001
Fired more than once31.515.28.82, p = .006
Arrested since age 1865.420.647.90, p < .001
Illicit drug use in last 6 months43.922.911.49, p = .002
Poor health (self-reported)21.89.47.62, p = .010
None of these outcomes10.547.795.11, p < .001
Four or more of these outcomes19.30.895.11, p < .001

Risk and Protective Factors

Age 5 socioeconomic status (SES) was based on the Hollingshead Four-Factor Index of Social Status [ 12 ]. During the age 5 interview, mothers responded to questions regarding the child's misbehavior, their own discipline practices, and whether the child had ever been physically harmed by an adult. Interviewers then rated privately the probability that the child had been severely harmed, using a criterion of intentional strikes to the child by an adult that left visible marks for more than 24 hours or that required medical attention. A score of 0 was assigned if maltreatment had definitely not or probably not occurred, and a score of 1 was assigned if maltreatment had probably occurred, definitely occurred, or if authorities had been involved. Agreement between independent raters for this classification was 90% (kappa = .56) [ 14 ].

In kindergarten through third grade (ages 5–8), sociometric interviews were conducted during the winter of each school year in classrooms in which at least 70% of children's parents gave consent [ 15 ]. Children were shown pictures of their classmates (in kindergarten and first grade) or a class roster (in second and third grades) and were asked to name up to three peers they especially liked and up to three peers they especially disliked. A social preference score was created by taking the standardized difference between the standardized like most nomination score and the standardized dislike most nomination score [ 15 – 17 ]. Children were classified as being rejected if their social preference score was less than 1, standardized like most score was less than 0, and standardized like least score was greater than 0. A cross-year composite was created to reflect whether children had been rejected by peers during any year in kindergarten through third grade.

When children were 12, their mothers completed nine items regarding awareness of their child's activities, whereabouts, and friends [ 18 ]. Items were rated on 5-point scales and averaged to reflect maternal monitoring (α = .69). At age 16, mother-adolescent relationship quality was observationally assessed in a 45-minute interaction focused on communication about rules, roles, responsibilities, and conflict resolution. Coders rated individual and dyadic behavior on a set of 9-point rating scales [ 19 ]. A superordinate 9-point rating summarized overall observed relationship quality. A high score indicated the relationship was warm, open, and emotionally satisfying. Interrater agreement was computed for 20% of the total cases (average intraclass r = .70; p < .001). Also at age 16, adolescents rated how often their friends engaged in 10 antisocial behaviors [ 20 ]. Each behavior was rated on a 5-point scale ranging from 1 = never to 5 = very often, and values were averaged to create a scale (α = .74).

At age 22, target participants reported how often they are involved in activities at church (0 = never, 6 = 5 or more times a week). They also reported their frequency of civic engagement [ 21 ] in seven areas (e.g., volunteered in a public service, neighborhood, or political association; donated money, food, or clothes to charity) in the last year (1 = never, 5 = many times). The seven items were averaged to create a civic engagement scale (α = .76). In addition, target participants rated four items regarding their connection to a peer group (e.g., “I feel happiest when I am with members of this group”) [ 22 ], on a 5-point scale (1 = strongly disagree, 5 = strongly agree). The four items were averaged for the adult peer group affiliation scale (α = .77). Also, at age 22, target participants rated the quality of their relationships with their mother and father, each on an 11-point scale ranging from 0 = really bad to 10 = perfect [ 23 ].

At age 24, target participants were asked whether they had ever been treated for behavioral, emotional, or drug problems (0 = no, 1 = yes) [ 24 ]. Annually from age 18 to 25, target participants were asked “Do you currently have a romantic partner?” We constructed an index of romantic involvement as the number of waves the participant reported being in a romantic relationship across these eight years [ 25 ]. Annually from age 15 to 27, target participants were asked whether they had any children; we constructed an index of the age at which the participant first became a parent. Participants who had not yet become a parent by the age of 27 (59% of the sample) were assigned a value of 28 for the age at first parenthood variable.

Analysis Plan

We conducted three sets of analyses. First, we present descriptive statistics for individuals who dropped out of high school compared to high school graduates on the frequency of each of the five individual outcome variables and then the composite that includes all five. Second, we conducted 2 (dropout or not) × 2 (categorical risk factor or not) ANOVAS predicting the continuous composite outcome. Third, for continuous risk factors, we conducted regressions that included the main effect of dropping out, the main effect of the risk factor, and the interaction between dropping out and the risk factor as predictors of the continuous composite outcome. The interaction terms in the ANOVAs and regressions tested whether each risk or protective factor altered the link between dropping out and the socially relevant outcomes.

Individuals who dropped out of high school were nearly four times more likely to be receiving government assistance, were twice as likely to have been fired two or more times, were more than three times more likely to have been arrested since the age of 18, were twice as likely to have used illicit drugs in the last six months, and were more than twice as likely to report poor health (see Table 1 ). We then examined a composite indicator by summing the number of negative outcomes experienced and found a large effect of dropping out, F (1, 451) = 85.13, p < .001, with individuals who had dropped out of high school nearly 5 times more likely than high school graduates to have one or more negative outcomes and 24 times more likely to have as many as four or more negative outcomes.

Despite the significant risk posed by dropping out of school, not all dropouts experienced the same level of negative outcome, so we turned to the question of which factors from childhood, adolescence, and early adulthood might alter the link between dropping out and subsequent outcomes. For categorical risk and protective factors, we conducted 2-way analyses of variance (ANOVAs) that included the main effect of dropping out, the main effect of the risk or protective factor, and the interaction between the two. For continuous risk and protective factors, we first centered the risk and protective factors and then conducted regression analyses with comparable main effects and the interaction. Links between dropout status and negative outcomes were altered by four of the risk and protective factors we tested (see Figure 1 ; main effects are reported in Tables 2 and ​ and3). 3 ). First, individuals from lower SES families had more negative outcomes at age 27 than individuals from higher SES families; furthermore, the risk of dropping out in relation to more negative outcomes at age 27 was more pronounced for individuals whose family SES in kindergarten was lower than for individuals whose family SES in kindergarten was higher, t = −2.10, p = .036. Second, individuals who were rejected by peers during elementary school were at higher risk for negative outcomes at age 27, and the effect of peer rejection was more pronounced for individuals who dropped out compared to those who graduated, F (1, 446) = 9.26, p = .002. Third, whether the individual had ever been treated for emotional, behavioral, or drug problems altered the link between dropping out and experiencing later negative outcomes such that individuals who graduated were at higher risk of later negative outcomes if they had been treated, whereas individuals who dropped out were at higher risk of later negative outcomes if they had not been treated, F (1, 387) = 7.35, p = .007, suggesting that despite the risk posed by emotional, behavioral, and drug problems in predicting school dropout in the first place, treatment for those problems had the potential to ameliorate subsequent risk for negative outcomes into adulthood for dropouts. Fourth, the risk of dropping out in relation to more negative outcomes at age 27 was more pronounced for individuals who became a parent at a younger age than for those who became a parent at an older age or who had not yet become a parent by the end of the study period, t = −1.99, p = .048.

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Significant interactions between dropout status and four risk factors (household SES in kindergarten; rejection by elementary school peers; treatment for behavioral, emotional, or drug problems by age 24; age at first parenthood) in the prediction of age 27 negative outcomes. For the continuous SES and age at first parenthood variables, the plotted lines depict slopes at one standard deviation above and below the mean. Each risk factor was related to the number of negative outcomes experienced by dropouts but not by graduates. The high age of first parenthood group included individuals who had not yet become parents by the age of 27.

ANOVAs Predicting Socially Relevant Outcomes at Age 27 from Dropout and Categorical Risk and Protective Factors

Risk FactorM (SD)M (SD)F for DropoutF for Other RiskPartial ɳ
GenderMaleFemale88.97, p < .00115.12, p < .001.21
 Dropout2.50 (1.35)1.86 (1.13)
 Graduate1.08 (1.06).62 (.85)
EthnicityAfrican Am.European Am.66.31, p < .00110.10, p = .002.17
 Dropout2.68 (1.11)1.86 (1.25)
 Graduate1.05 (.95).82 (.99)
Age 5 abuseAbusedNot Abused59.10, p < .0015.40, p = .021.18
 Dropout2.64 (1.22)2.05 (1.27)
 Graduate1.06 (1.15).81 (.96)
Ages 5–8 peer rejection RejectedNot Rejected88.84, p < .00119.34, p < .001.20
 Dropout3.00 (1.08)1.82 (1.18)
 Graduate1.02 (1.02).80 (.98)
Treated by age 24 TreatedNot Treated54.03, p < .001.09, p = .761.16
 Dropout1.89 (1.25)2.39 (1.33)
 Graduate1.12 (1.11).72 (.91)

Regressions Predicting Socially Relevant Outcomes at Age 27 from Dropout and Continuous Risk and Protective Factors

Risk Factorb (SE b) [t] Dropoutb (SE b) [t] Other RiskR
Age 5 SES 1.02 (.18) [5.52, p < .001]−.01 (.00) [−1.46, p = .146].18
Age 12 parental monitoring1.11 (.17) [6.36, p < .001]−.56 (.16) [−3.52, p < .001].14
Age 16 deviant peer affiliation1.03 (.17) [6.23, p < .001].49 (.08) [5.94, p < .001].22
Age 16 relationship with mother.89 (.24) [3.70, p < .001]−.12 (.05) [−2.68, p = .008].14
Age 22 church involvement1.21 (.19) [6.41, p < .001]−.10 (.02) [−4.32, p < .001].14
Age 22 civic engagement1.31 (.16) [8.15, p < .001]−.10 (.09) [−1.10, p = .271].15
Age 22 peer group1.42 (.24) [5.85, p < .001]−.19 (.08) [−2.34, p = .020].14
Age 22 relationship with mother1.22 (.16) [7.53, p < .001]−.04 (.03) [−1.51, p = .131].12
Age 22 relationship with father1.08 (.17) [6.52, p < .001]−.04 (.02) [−2.46, p = .014].11
Ages 18–25 romantic partnerships1.18 (.30) [3.97, p < .001]−.07 (.02) [−3.56, p < .001].17
Age at first parenthood .90 (.21) [4.38, p < .001]−.02 (.02) [−1.21, p = .228].17

We tested a number of other possible risk and protective factors that might alter the link between dropping out and negative outcomes, as above using 2-way ANOVAs to test categorical factors ( Table 2 ) and regression analyses to test continuous factors ( Table 3 ). Civic engagement and self-reported mother-child relationship quality during early adulthood were not significant risk or protective factors for dropouts or graduates. The other factors we investigated did not alter the relation between dropping out and subsequent outcomes but instead were equally protective or risky for dropouts and graduates alike, as these risk and protective factors did not show a significant interaction with dropout status, suggesting that these risk and protective factors were related to outcomes in the same way for dropouts and graduates. Being male, being African American, being physically abused in the first five years of life, and affiliating with antisocial peers during adolescence predicted more negative outcomes at age 27 equally for dropouts and graduates. Being in a romantic relationship for more years, maternal monitoring during early adolescence, observed quality of the mother-child relationship during adolescence, self-reported father-child relationship quality during early adulthood, frequency of involvement in church activities, and strongly affiliating with a peer group in early adulthood were equally protective for dropouts and graduates.

Consistent with previous research, individuals in our sample who dropped out of high school were at elevated risk of problems in multiple domains during adulthood. The main effects of dropping out on negative outcomes at age 27 were striking: Individuals who dropped out of high school were 24 times more likely than graduates to have experienced four or more negative outcomes. Nevertheless, regardless of dropout status, individuals with better relationships with their parents during adolescence and early adulthood, less affiliation with deviant peers during adolescence, more time in a romantic relationship in late adolescence and early adulthood, and more involvement with a peer group and church activities during early adulthood had better outcomes.

Furthermore, although one of the risk factors that exacerbates the negative outcomes associated with dropping out (i.e., age 5 SES) is not directly amenable to change (although some large scale interventions have attempted to move families out of poverty [ 26 ]), three of the risk factors (i.e., peer rejection during elementary school; treatment for behavioral, emotional, and drug problems; and becoming a parent at a young age) might be. First, several promising and model interventions to improve peer relationships during elementary school have been identified in the Blueprints for Healthy Youth Development ( www.blueprintsprograms.com ) [ 27 ]. Second, behavioral, emotional, and drug problems increase the probability of school dropout [ 28 ]. Treatments for these problems may not only reduce school dropout but, for those who dropout anyway, offer the potential to reduce the subsequent negative outcomes associated with dropping out. For graduates, our findings likely imply that individuals experiencing more negative outcomes in early adulthood are more likely to seek treatment rather than that treatment causes more negative outcomes. Third, only 40% of teen mothers complete high school, and one-third of girls who drop out indicate that pregnancy or early parenthood was a key factor [ 29 ]. This is a particularly toxic problem when parenthood also compounds the negative outcomes associated with dropping out. Approaches that help teens delay sexual debut or use effective contraception could not only reduce teen pregnancy but also prevent school dropout that often follows for pregnant girls.

Notable strengths of this study include the prospective longitudinal design following a community sample from the age of 5 to 27 with data available from multiple sources including parents, peers, direct observations, and self-reports. The study also had limitations. First, we do not claim to have studied all of the potential risk and protective factors that could have altered the link between dropping out and subsequent negative outcomes. Emotional abuse and neurocognitive functioning are examples of other potential risk factors that could be examined in future research. Second, although we had data only through age 27, development does not stop there. Life pathways tend to stabilize fairly early in adulthood, but individuals continue to change over time in response to new opportunities and constraints that may serve as turning points toward better or worse future adjustment [ 30 ]. Third, we examined effects of risk and protective factors on the link between dropout status and a composite indicator that encompassed five socially relevant outcomes, but some risk and protective factors may be more tied to specific individual outcomes than to others. Finally, we adopted a variable-centered rather than person-centered approach. Originally, we sought to identify a group of dropouts that was exhibiting success in a number of domains to understand what promotes success in this at-risk group, but this proved sadly difficult to do, as the large majority were experiencing negative outcomes in multiple domains. Future research with large national samples may be able to identify a large enough subgroup of successful dropouts to delve more into predictors of positive outcomes for this group.

Researchers, policymakers, and advocates have argued that school dropout should be reframed as a public health problem because education is a strong predictor of long-term health and health-services utilization. In comparison to college graduates, the average American high school dropout's life expectancy at birth is 14.2 years less for men and 10.3 years less for women [ 31 ]. During their lives, dropouts are more likely than graduates to experience both chronic and acute health problems [ 9 ]. The American Public Health Association estimates that eliminating dropout could save more than $17 billion annually in Medicaid and other health care expenditures, as well as additional billions in welfare, criminal justice, and increased tax revenues [ 5 ]. Although entirely eliminating dropout may not be possible, it is surely a worthy goal, regardless of whether dropout is the cause of later problems or a mediating marker in a risky developmental trajectory that begins long before dropout occurs. Understanding school dropout in the context of other risk and protective factors provides a starting point for disrupting continuity between school dropout and later negative outcomes.

IMPLICATIONS AND CONTRIBUTION

Individuals who dropped out of high school were 24 times more likely than graduates to have experienced four or more negative outcomes (e.g., being incarcerated, fired) by age 27, but several risk and protective factors (e.g., treatment for behavioral, emotional, or drug problems) altered the risks associated with dropping out.

Acknowledgments

The Child Development Project has been funded by grants MH56961, MH57024, and MH57095 from the National Institute of Mental Health, HD30572 from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, and DA016903 from the National Institute on Drug Abuse. Kenneth A. Dodge is supported by Senior Scientist award 2K05 DA015226 from the National Institute on Drug Abuse. The authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose. The study sponsors had no involvement in study design; the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data; the writing of the report; or the decision to submit the manuscript for publication. Jennifer E. Lansford wrote the first draft of the manuscript. No honorarium, grant, or other form of payment was given to anyone to produce the manuscript. We are grateful to the individuals who have participated in this research.

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Helping High School Dropouts Improve Their Prospects

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Dan bloom and db dan bloom director, health and barriers to employment policy area, mdrc ron haskins ron haskins senior fellow emeritus - economic studies.

April 27, 2010

Dropping out of high school has serious long-term consequences not only for individuals but also for society. According to expert estimates, between 3.5 million and 6 million young Americans between the ages of 16 and 24 are school dropouts. Lowering the number of adolescents who fail to finish high school and helping those who drop out get back on track must be a major policy goal for our nation. In this policy brief we focus primarily on how best to provide youngsters who have dropped out of school a second chance, though we also give some attention to dropout prevention (we do not tackle the topic of high school reform more broadly). Several carefully evaluated program models hold out promise that they can help both young people at risk of dropping out and those who do drop out. These promising programs must be expanded and continually improved, and we offer specific proposals for doing so. U.S. policy must aim to keep as many young Americans as possible in high school until they graduate and to reconnect as many as possible of those who drop out despite educators’ best efforts to keep them in school.

Just how costly is school dropout? Americans who do not graduate from high school pay a heavy price personally. Although correlation is not causation, the links between leaving school before graduating and having poor life outcomes are striking. Perhaps the most important correlation is that between dropping out and low income. Based on Census Bureau data (from 1965 to 2005), figure 1 compares the median family income of adults who dropped out of high school with that of adults who completed various levels of education. Two points are notable. First, in 2005, school dropouts earned $15,700 less than adults with a high school degree and well over $35,000 less than those with a two-year degree. Over a forty-five-year career the earnings difference between a dropout and someone with only a high school degree can amount to more than $700,000. Considered from a broader social perspective, the income-education pattern illustrated by figure 1 shows that school dropouts contribute substantially to the problem of income inequality that is now a growing concern of researchers and policy makers.

Dropping out of school is also linked with many other negative outcomes such as increased chances of unemployment or completely dropping out of the workforce, lower rates of marriage, increased incidence of divorce and births outside marriage, increased involvement with the welfare and legal systems, and even poor health. All these outcomes are costly not only to dropouts personally, but also to society. Prison costs, for example, are among the most rapidly growing items in nearly every state budget, and more than two-thirds of state prison inmates are school dropouts, though many obtain a General Educational Development (GED) credential while in prison. Similarly, in 2006, 67 percent of all births to young dropouts were outside marriage, compared with 10 percent of births for women with a master’s degree. Because families with children born outside marriage are five or six times more likely to live in poverty than married-couple families, it follows that they are also more likely to be on welfare. In both these examples, dropping out is linked with social problems that impose large public costs on the nation.

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Facing the School Dropout Dilemma

School dropout

  • Schools and Classrooms

Introduction

The UN Convention on the Rights of the Child states that every child has the right to an education that develops their “personality, talents and mental and physical abilities to their fullest potential.” According to the Alliance for Excellent Education (AEE) (2011), an estimated 1.3 million American high school students drop out every year; a disproportionate number of whom are youth of color.

The nation’s children are its future workers, citizens, and leaders. Education remains the major tool by which people become empowered and the economic, social, and personal well-being of all citizens in a pluralistic society increases. A high dropout rate diminishes the pool of qualified people from diverse backgrounds who will enter the professional and political ranks that make important public policy decisions (APA, 1996). The mission for every school should be to educate students to equip them to become “knowledgeable, responsible, socially skilled, healthy, caring, and contributing citizens” (Greenberg et al., 2003).

The fact that so many students never complete high school has a deep and wide-ranging impact on the U.S.’s long-term economic outlook. The U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) (2011) reports that the median income of persons ages 18 through 67 who had not completed high school was roughly $25,000 in 2009. At current rates, a significant segment of the population will remain entrenched in poverty while on a global scale the competitiveness of the American labor force will continue to lag behind.

APA has a longstanding commitment to school dropout prevention as is evident from its 1996 resolution on the topic (APA, 1996)  (PDF, 18KB).

NCES reports that on average, 3.4 percent of students who were enrolled in public or private high schools in October 2008 left school before October 2009 without completing a high school program. Broken down by race, the estimated event dropout rates were 2.4 percent for Whites, 4.8 percent for African Americans, and 5.8 percent for Latinos. NCES did not find a significant difference in the 2009 event dropout rates for males and females. In terms of age, older students (ages 20 through 24) are at a greater dropout risk than students aged 15 through 17.

A strong link exists between poverty and high school dropout rates. Students from low-income families dropped out of high school five times more than students from high-income families in 2009.

The term “dropout factories” was coined to refer to high schools that graduate 60 percent or less of their students. Those schools produce 50 percent of the nation’s dropouts and two-thirds ethnic minority dropouts according to the Alliance for Excellent Education (2011). The dropouts are highly influenced by poverty in the school locations. Dropout factories are mainly found in 15 states primarily in the North, West, and South of the U.S. (Balfanz & Legters, 2004). These schools are only 12 percent  of the national total yet they are estimated to produce about half of the nation’s dropouts overall (Balfanz & Legters, 2004). Slight good news is that dropout factories have continued to decline; estimated at 1,634 in 2009 compared to 2,007 in 2002 and 1,746 in 2008, according to America’s Promise Alliance (2011). However, an estimated 2.1 million students still attend dropout factories as of 2009, 183,701 students fewer than in 2008 (America’s Promise Alliance, 2011).

The overriding common characteristic for these schools is location in poverty-stricken areas with high rates of unemployment, crime, and ill health. In addition, their student bodies are comprised disproportionately of children of color (Balfanz & Legters, 2004). More than 60 percent of black students attend schools where more than 50 percent of the school population is identified as living in poverty, compared to 18 percent of white students (Alliance for Excellent Education, 2011).

Approximately 42 percent of Hispanic students, 43 percent of African American, and 46 percent of American Indian students will not graduate on time with a regular diploma, compared to 17 percent of Asian students and 22 percent of white students (AEE, 2011).

These “dropout factories” are estimated to produce 81 perecnt of Native American, 73 percent of African American, 66 percent of Latino, and 34 percent of White dropouts respectively (Balfanz, 2007). 

Ethnic minority students who are fortunate enough to attend middle class or affluent high schools are promoted to the 12th grade at similar rates as their White peers (Balfanz & Letgers, 2006).

  • However, nearly half of the nation’s African American and Latino students attend high schools in low-income areas with dropout rates that hover in the 40-50 percent range (Balfanz & Letgers, 2006; Children’s Defense Fund, 2004).

Research is discovering that dropouts arise from an accumulation of various risk factors throughout children’s schooling that peak once in high school. It is increasingly evident that school dropout prevention must begin as early as possible. Some researchers have identified early predictors of dropout in children before they are enrolled in kindergarten (Hammond, Linton, Smink & Drew, 2007).

Early childhood lays the foundation upon which to build future academic success. It provides a critical window for optimal brain development; 90 percent of brain development is estimated to occur before age five (Jensen, 1998).

Early childhood is also a period when children are most vulnerable to environmental risk factors such as poverty, malnutrition, trauma/abuse, or maternal depression (National Center for Children in Poverty, 1999).

Recipients of high quality early childhood education (i.e., consisting of a holistic, nurturing, consistent, and stimulating curriculum) exhibit lower rates of grade retention, higher levels of academic achievement, fewer special education services, and a stronger commitment to graduate from high school (Stegelin, 2004).

Early literacy development is also vital to later academic success. Children with poor reading skills are more likely to repeat a grade setting the stage for a pattern of failure in school. The fundamentals for being a good reader (i.e., cognitive and language skills) are learned before children reach school age (National Dropout Prevention Center/Network, 2009).

Interventions targeted at children during the birth-to-three, preschool, and kindergarten stages can prepare them to enter elementary school with good language development, cognitive skills, and self concept regardless of their family backgrounds or personal characteristics (National Dropout Prevention Center/Network, 2009).

As children progress through school, their failure to meet certain milestones is highly predictive of later dropout. Parents and educators should be particularly vigilant regarding each child's academic performance. Recognizing the warning signs promptly is crucial to early and effective intervention.

By the third grade, it is very important for children to have mastered how to read since it underpins future learning in the upper elementary grades where more complex reading skills are required. They should have transitioned from "learning to read to reading to learn" (Annie E. Casey Foundation, 2010).

As children progress through the sixth and eighth grades, poor academic performance in math and English, low reading scores, absenteeism, and disengagement from school become very reliable predictors of whether they will later drop out of high school (Kennelly & Monrad, 2007).

On the individual level, it is also important to consider children's beliefs in their own competence and motivation to succeed academically. Research seems to indicate that children's beliefs in their abilities tend to become increasingly negative as they grow older, at least through early adolescence. When children believe they are less competent in certain academic activities, they tend to value them less which has negative implications for the effort they will put into school work (Wigfield & Eccles, 2000).

Student effort (i.e., the level of school attachment, involvement, and commitment) is highly correlated with more positive academic outcomes (Stewart, 2008).

Peer associations also have an important effect on academic outcomes. Peer relationships can create a set of norms and values that either promote or undermine academic achievement. Meaningful (or positive) relationships with peers that promote psychological and life skills may promote academic achievement and motivation, however, negative peer pressure or social disapproval toward school work might lead some students to drop out of school (Stewart, 2008; Nicholas & White 2001).

The transition into ninth grade can also be particularly difficult for many youth. At this stage, many students move from middle schools into high schools where they are likely to feel lost and where academic rigor increases substantially (Balfanz, 2007).

Many students are held back in the ninth grade and subsequently do not get promoted to or drop out in the tenth grade creating the "ninth grade bulge" and "tenth grade dip" in school enrollments. The ninth grade attrition rate is exacerbated by poverty; 40 percent of dropouts in low income schools leave after ninth grade compared to 27 percent of dropouts in low poverty districts (National High School Center, 2007).

Poor grades, poor attendance, and disengagement from school become particularly threatening to the completion of high school at this stage and four major high school dropout categories begin to emerge (Balfanz, 2007):

  • Life events – dropout is prompted by something that happens to the student outside of school, e.g., teen pregnancy, foster care placement, high school mobility.
  • Fade outs – dropout is prompted by frustration and boredom with school even though the student has not repeated or failed any grades.
  • Push outs – dropouts are subtly or explicitly encouraged to withdraw or transfer away from school because they are perceived to be difficult or detrimental to the success of the school.
  • Failure to succeed – dropouts leave school after a history of academic failure, absenteeism, or lack of engagement.
  • In addition to improving the quality of the school environment, students benefit from prevention programs that enhance their social and emotional assets (e.g., managing emotions and interpersonal situations effectively, establishing positive goals, enhancing feelings of competence) (Greenberg et al., 2003).
  • Partnership between schools and families to encourage learning
  • Safe and orderly school and classroom environments
  • Caring relationships between students and teachers
  • Cooperative learning and proactive classroom management
  • High academic expectations of youth from both adults and peers.

It is evident from the statistics above that a disproportionate number of ethnic minority students drop out of high school. These disparities are particularly pronounced for African American, American Indian/Alaska Native, and Latino youth.

The predictors of dropout (i.e., delayed reading skills, grade retention, absenteeism, and school disengagement) are significantly higher for students of color, which can be linked primarily to higher rates of poverty, less access to high quality early childhood education, and higher representation in "dropout factories".

For Latino youth in particular, a significant number are recent immigrants who are English- language learners, i.e., not fully fluent in English and speak another language at home, which exacerbates their risk of dropping out or not completing high school on time (Fry, 2003).

Recent encouraging research has found that young Latino children in low-income areas show strong social skills in the classroom due to good parenting practices that facilitate learning in elementary school. However, these gains are undermined by mediocre schools as they grow older (Fuller & Coll, 2010).

Several risk factors affect children born at the intersection of race and poverty throughout their development predicting school failure or dropout and entry into the juvenile justice system. Children of color struggling academically or acting out are often met with police intervention, suspensions, or expulsions instead of appropriate academic intervention in schools of poor quality (Children's Defense Fund, 2007).

African American students in particular are disciplined or suspended at disproportionate rates for reasons that include lack of teacher training (in classroom management or culturally competent practices) and racial stereotypes only contributing further to disengagement and later dropout from school (APA, 2008).

Risk of falling into the school to prison pipeline is particularly pronounced for boys of color with approximately 1 in 3 African American boys and 1 in 6 Latino boys projected to become incarcerated at least once in their lifetimes (Children's Defense Fund, 2007).

  • intensive instruction (longer school hours and Saturday school),
  • monitoring and encouragement of attendance,
  • student mentoring,
  • after-school and extra-curricular programs,
  • high expectations of students from adults and peers,
  • engagement and involvement of parents, families, and communities have demonstrated positive results in academic achievement and dropout prevention for students of color (APA, 2008; Balfanz & Legters, 2004; Toldson, 2008; U.S. Department of Education, 2006).

For dropout prevention to be successful for low-income minority students in many of our nation's schools, attention must be paid to social and emotional factors that support academic achievement i.e., academic and school attachment, teacher support, peer values and overall mental health and wellbeing (Becker & Luthar, 2002).

Precise statistics on dropout rates among lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender students (LGBT) are difficult to find, although some have estimated that almost a third of LGBT students drop out of high school, more than triple the national rate (Bart, 1998).

The main cause of dropout among LGBT high school students appears to be the hostile school climate created by continual bullying and harassment from peers due to their sexual orientation. Nearly nine out of 10 LGBT students (86.2 percent) experienced harassment at school in the past year, three-fifths (60.8 percent) felt unsafe at school because of their sexual orientation, and about a third (32.7 percent) skipped a day of school in the past month due to feeling unsafe (Kosciw, Diaz & Greytak, 2008).

A national survey data found that LGBT students fared worse on many measures of academic achievement and school engagement than their peers (i.e., having a lower GPA, higher likelihood of failing a class, and less positive feelings towards teachers or school in general) (Pearson, Muller & Wilkinson, 2007).

LGBT students stand to benefit from school policies that counteract bullying and harassment; support the coming out process, and reaffirm the dignity and rights of all students (APA, 2008; U.S. Department of Education, 2007).

NCES reports that in 2009, the event dropout rate for students with disabilities was not significantly different from dropout rate for students without disabilities. From 1996–1997 through 2005–2006, the percentage of students who exited special education and school (dropped out) decreased from 45.9 percent to 26.2 percent (U.S. Department of Education, 2011).

More still, U.S. Department of Education data from 2005-2006 shows that students with disabilities who do not complete high school had emotional disturbance (44.9 percent); , speech or language impairments (22.7 percent), and specific learning disabilities (25.1 percent); intellectual disabilities (22.3 percent), and other health impairments (23.4 percent). On a positive note, during the same period 56.5 percent of students with disabilities graduated with a high school diploma.

Although there are fewer data available, students with disabilities, especially those with emotional and behavioral disorders, appear to be suspended and expelled at rates disproportionate to their representation in the population (APA, 2008).

In addition, arrest rates are relatively high for students with disabilities who drop out. Approximately one-third of students with disabilities who drop out of high school have spent a night in jail; triple the rate of students with disabilities who have completed high school (Wagner, Newman, Cameto, Levine & Garza, 2006).

One dropout prevention program that has been successful with students with disabilities uses consistent monitoring of students at risk of dropout (e.g., course failures, tardiness, missed classes, absenteeism, detention and suspension) and then connecting with them through academic support, in-depth problem solving, and coordination with community services (U.S. Department of Education, 2006).

The societal and economic costs of a high dropout rate for the U.S. are gigantic. It is estimated that approximately 12 million students will dropout over the next decade or so costing the U.S. about $3 trillion (AEE, 2007). Dropouts are far more likely to experience reduced job and income opportunities, chronic unemployment, incarceration, or require government assistance than the rest of the population.

In 2009, the average annual income for a high school dropout was $19,540, compared to $27,380 for a high school graduate.

High school dropouts are bearing the brunt of the ongoing recession more than the rest of the population. While the national unemployment rate as of January 2012 is 8.3 percent, for individuals without a high school diploma it is 13.1 percent compared to 8.4 percent for high school and 4.2 percent for college graduates (U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2012).

The risk of incarceration (jails, prisons, juvenile detention centers) for male dropouts is significant. In 2007, male dropouts aged 16-24 were 6.3 times more likely to be institutionalized than high school graduates and when compared with those with a bachelor degree or higher, their risk skyrocketed to 63 times more likely, according to the Center for Labor Market Studies (2009).

On a global scale, the U.S. is underperforming its competitors. The U.S. ranks eighth from the bottom in a comparison of high school graduation rates among the 30 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD, 2009).

It has been estimated that if dropouts from the Class of 2009 had graduated, the nation’s economy would benefit from nearly $335 billion in additional income over the course of their lifetimes (AEE, 2010).

Just halving the Class of 2008 dropout rate in the nation’s largest cities has been estimated to bring several billion additional dollars in economic benefits including increased earnings, home and auto sales, jobs, tax revenue, spending and investment, and long term economic growth (AEE, 2010).

Dropping out of high school severely limits the chances of future success for far too many children. It deepens and continues the cycle of poverty into future generations. Receiving a good education is the lifeline by which many youth can lift themselves out of poverty. Facing the high school dropout dilemma will require commitment and investment in high quality early childhood education, attention to social and emotional learning, continual monitoring of student attendance and academic progress, intensive instruction for those falling behind, using alternatives to school push-out, fostering of a positive school climate, and engagement with parents, families, and communities. America’s future depends on the delivery of a high quality education to all children regardless of race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, sexual orientation, or disability so they may develop to their fullest potential.

APA Center for Psychology in Schools and Education

Alliance for Excellent Education

America’s Promise Alliance

Collaborative for Academic, Social, and Emotional Learning

Children’s Defense Fund

National Center for Education Statistics

National Dropout Prevention Center/Network

National Dropout Prevention Center for Students with Disabilities

What Works Clearinghouse (Institute for Education Sciences)

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American Psychological Association (2008). Just the facts about sexual orientation & youth: A primer for principals, educators, & school personnel .

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Bart, M. (1998, September). Creating a safer school for gay students. Counseling Today, 26 , 36- 39.

Becker, B. & Luthar, S. (2002). Social-emotional factors affecting achievement outcomes among disadvantaged students: Closing the achievement gap. Educational Psychologist, 37 (4), 197-214.

Center for Labor Market Studies (2009, October 1). The consequences of dropping out of high school: Joblessness and jailing for high school dropouts and the high cost for taxpayers . (PDF, 83KB)

Center for Mental Health in Schools at UCLA. (2011, October). Dropout prevention . (PDF, 155KB) Los Angeles, CA.

Children’s Defense Fund (2007). America’s cradle to prison pipeline . (PDF, 212MB) (updated 04/20/12). 

Children’s Defense Fund (2004, June). The road to dropping out: Minority students and academic factors correlated with failure to complete high school . (PDF, 162KB)

Fry, R. (2003). Hispanic youth dropping out of U.S. schools: Measuring the challenge. (PDF, 224KB) 

Fuller, B. & Coll, C. G. (2010). Learning from Latinos: Contexts, families, and child development in motion: Introduction to the special section. Developmental Psychology, 46 (3), 559–565.

Gleason, P. & Dynarski, M. (2002). Do we know whom to serve? Issues in using risk factors to identify dropouts. Jou rnal of Education for Students Placed at Risk, 7 , 25–41.

Greenberg, M., Weissberg, R., O’Brien, M., Zins, J., Fredericks, L., Resnik, H., & Elias, M. (2003). Enhancing school-based prevention and youth development through coordinated social, emotional, and academic learning. American Psychologist, 58 (6/7), 466-474.

Hammond, C., Linton, D., Smink, J., & Drew, S. (2007). Dropout risk factors and exemplary programs . (PDF, 2MB) 

Jensen, E. (1998). Teaching with the brain in mind . Alexandria, VA: Association for Supervision and Curriculum Development.

Kennelly, L. & Monrad, M. (2007). Approaches to dropout prevention: Heeding early warning signs with appropriate interventions . (PDF, 1.5MB) Washington, D.C.: National HIgh School at the American Institutes for Research.

Kosciw, J. G., Diaz, E. M., & Greytak, E. A. (2008). 2007 national school climate survey: The experiences of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender youth in our nation’s schools . (PDF, 1.2MB)   

National Dropout Prevention Center/Network (2012). Early Literacy Development . 

National Dropout Prevention Center/Network (2009). Effective strategies – Early childhood education .

National High School Center (2007). The first year of high school: A quick stats fact sheet . (PDF, 275KB) Washington, D.C.: National High School Center at the American Institutes for Research.

National Center for Children in Poverty (1999). Poverty and brain development in early childhood . Washington, D.C.: Author.

Nichols, J. D., & White, J. (2001). Impact of peer networks on achievement of high school Algebra students. Journal of Educational Research, 94 (5), 267-273.

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Pearson, J., Muller, C., & Wilkinson, L. (2007). Adolescent same-sex attraction and academic outcomes: The role of school attachment and engagement . Social Problems, 54(4), 523– 542.

Stewart, E. B. (2008). School structural characteristics, student effort, peer associations, and parental involvement: The influence of school- and individual-level factors on academic achievement. Education and Urban Society, 40 (2), 179-204.

Stegelin, D. (2004). Early childhood education. In F. P. Schargel & J. Smink (Eds.) Helping students graduate: A strategic approach to dropout prevention, 115-123. Larchmont, NY: Eye on Education.

Toldson, I. (2008). Breaking barriers: Plotting the path to academic success for school age African American male s.  (PDF, 3.5MB) 

U.S. Department of Education (2011, October). Trends in High School Dropout and Completion Rates in the United States: 1972–2009 . (PDF, 1.4MB) Compendium Report. 

U.S. Department of Education (2007). 28th annual report to Congress on the implementation of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act, 2006: Vol. 1 . ( PDF, 2.5MB)

U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences (2011, October). Intervention report: Check and connect.  (PDF, 293KB)

U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences (2006). What Works Clearinghouse. Intervention report: Achievement for Latinos through academic success (ALAS) . (PDF, 126KB)

Wagner, M., Newman, L., Cameto, R., Levine, P., & Garza, N. (2006, August). An overview of findings from wave 2 of the National Longitudinal Transition Study-2 (NLTS2) . (PDF, 406KB)

Wigfield, A., & Eccles, J. S. (2000). Expectancy value theory of achievement motivation. Contemporary Educational Psychology, 25 , 68-81.

Zins, J. E., Weissberg, R. P., Wang, M. C., & Walberg, H. J. (2004). Building academic success on social and emotional learning: What does the research say? New York, NY: Teachers College Press.

Related Reading

APA Resolution on School Dropout Prevention (PDF, 24KB)

Small Classes in the Early Grades, Academic Achievement, and Graduating From High School (PDF, 160KB)

Fact Sheet: Education & Socioeconomic Status

Children, Youth and Families Publications and Resources

Psychology Topics

Contact the office on children, youth, and families.

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Sponsored by Columbia Southern University

‘I’m Not the Success Story People Expected’: Former Air Force Senior Enlisted Leader Goes from High School Dropout to Education Leader

Todd Simmons

Growing up in a small town in Jasper County, South Carolina, Todd Simmons struggled through elementary school. Knowing now that he had some undiagnosed learning difficulties, he explained that he failed the fourth and ninth grades -- and even dropped out of high school for a few months. Simmons said his French teacher and the Air Force recruiter changed his life and turned him into the advocate he is for the importance of education in the lives of ordinary people.

Simmons is now Director of the Military Pathways and Family Programs at Columbia Southern University (CSU), a private for-profit online university in Orange Beach, Alabama, and discusses his thoughts on the importance of education for military members and the College of Military Studies and Leadership at CSU.

Can you share some of your educational background and how you overcame any obstacles that stood in your way?

“When I decided to get out of the small town, my recruiter studied with me, and I got a 33 on the ASVAB (after failing to initially meet minimum requirements). My first assignment in my Air Force career was a roller-coaster of emotions. I had trouble adjusting, I wasn’t learning, I had suicidal ideations, and I was failing exams. That first duty station was Air University at 18 years old. Twenty-two years later, I returned as the senior enlisted leader and retired from there.

“I then headed overseas to RAF Lakenheath, England, and my flight chief had a bachelor’s in English. He marked my reports up so much, and then he started teaching me the basics and how to write. He assigned me a three-page report where I could not use the word ‘that’; it was the best writing “class” I ever had.

“The first time I tried college, it didn’t go well; I failed an English class once and college algebra three times. But then I took a criminal justice class because it sounded fun, and that’s when I decided to keep going. After six years, I had my bachelor’s degree. I signed up for my master’s program the next day. Then I started teaching college as an E-6 technical sergeant and taught for 17 years on active duty.”

Why is education important to service members and veterans?

“In most of the stories I heard about education, the common thread was that the Air Force offered an opportunity that would only be available to some of the population. We saw so many first-generation college graduates, which was powerful. Just as I was the first one in my immediate family to go to college, so were many of these service members.

“Graduating with the first degree, whether an associate’s or a bachelor’s, starts a legacy for their family and a desire to continue in education. And as their children reach high school and begin thinking about college, the post-9/11 GI Bill helps them pass that legacy to the next generation.

“The military isn’t just a place to learn a skill; it is a generational transformational opportunity for their family. They can normalize something to change the future of their family.”

What are some differences in educational opportunities available for service members now compared to 20 or 30 years ago?

“One of the most significant differences is that in 1994, most enlistees had no post-high school education. Today, it’s not uncommon to see people join [who] have a degree or even a master’s degree.

“Educational options in the 1990s were limited to whatever was available on base, especially when living overseas. Class times were limited to lunch and at night. There were limited options for classes to take, and there was no online option. With the operational tempo, family and shift work, it took a lot of dedication and time to finish an undergraduate degree. Most people averaged 8-10 years for completion.

“Online education has changed everything, and each of the branches took a different approach to educational requirements. Today, education is considered essential in the profession of arms, in leadership, technical and lethality. In the ’90s, training was the dominant way, but now we talk about education and experience.”

What is the new College of Military Studies and Leadership at CSU, and what are the benefits for the military community?

“The College of Military Studies and Leadership at Columbia Southern University is another step forward in making educational options fit with what we see our service members need. We know how technical and proficient they are and how they closely align with their civilian counterparts, so CSU offers many degree programs . They have stringent academic standards and give credit for military jobs. All the degrees are aligned with industry standards, so a degree in military studies, criminology or cybersecurity can help with future career plans.

“The leadership side talks about organizational design and culture, which is important to bring into today’s military. CSU offers certifications to show the breadth of experience a military-connected student has.”

Why did you choose to work with CSU on this new program?

“I took a break from teaching when stationed at Air University, and after retirement, I contacted CSU to start teaching as an adjunct [professor] again. Then I sat down with leadership, and we talked about vision and if I’d like to be involved with carrying out that vision. I immediately saw this school meant what they said about caring for military families. They offer scholarships to service members and their families. CSU wants education to be accessible to everyone. I joined the team because if I believe it, I’m in it.”

Education is important for everyone at every stage. Learning doesn’t end, and neither does your involvement in education. Everyone’s educational journey will look different. “I’m not the success story people expected,” Simmons said. And your success is waiting for you.

To learn more about the College of Military Studies and Leadership at CSU, visit their website.

Rebecca Alwine

Rebecca Alwine

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High School Dropout, Graduation, and Completion Rates: Better Data, Better Measures, Better Decisions

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High School Dropout, Graduation, and Completion Rates

Better data, better measures, better decisions.

High school graduation and dropout rates have long been used as indicators of educational system productivity and effectiveness and of social and economic well being. While determining these rates may seem like a straightforward task, their calculation is in fact quite complicated. How does one count a student who leaves a regular high school but later completes a GED? How does one count a student who spends most of his/her high school years at one school and then transfers to another? If the student graduates, which school should receive credit? If the student drops out, which school should take responsibility?

High School Dropout, Graduation, and Completion Rates addresses these issues and to examine (1) the strengths, limitations, accuracy, and utility of the available dropout and completion measures; (2) the state of the art with respect to longitudinal data systems; and (3) ways that dropout and completion rates can be used to improve policy and practice.

  • Education — K-12 Education
  • Education — Policy, Reviews and Evaluations

Suggested Citation

National Research Council. 2011. High School Dropout, Graduation, and Completion Rates: Better Data, Better Measures, Better Decisions . Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/13035. Import this citation to: Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager

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COMMENTS

  1. Understanding Why Students Drop Out of High School, According to Their

    Research on school dropout extends from early 20th-century pioneers until now, marking trends of causes and prevention. However, specific dropout causes reported by students from several nationally representative studies have never been examined together, which, if done, could lead to a better understanding of the dropout problem.

  2. PDF Trends in High School Dropout and Completion Rates in the United States

    • The status dropout rate is the percentage of 16- to 24-year-olds who are not enrolled in school and have not earned a high school credential. In 2017, the ACS status dropout rate for all 16- to 24-year-olds was 5.4 percent (figure 2.1 and table 2.1). • Based on data from ACS, the 2013-2017 5-year-average status dropout rate2 for Hispanic 1

  3. PDF Trends in High School Dropout and Completion Rates in the United States

    school without obtaining a high school credential. These event dropouts accounted for 4.8 percent of the 11.2 million 15- to 24-year-olds enrolled in grades 10 through 12 in 2016 (figure 1.1 and table 1.1). • In 2016, the event dropout rate for 15- to 24-year-olds from families in the lowest income quarter 1

  4. Why Students Drop Out

    Why Students Drop Out Even though school completion rates have continually grown during much of past 100 years, dropping out of school persists as a problem that interferes with educational system efficiency and the most straightforward and satisfying route to individual educational goals for young people. Doll, Eslami, and Walters (2013) present data from seven

  5. Trends in High School Dropout and Completion Rates in the United States

    Dropout Report index. 1 See Digest of Education Statistics 2018, table 502.30. 2 See Digest of Education Statistics 2018, table 501.80. 3 See discussion in Indicator 2 for more details. 4 Levin and Belfield estimate costs at $209,000 as of 2004. The estimate here is adjusted for inflation between March 2004 and March 2017 using March 2004 and March 2017 consumer price index adjustments.

  6. Giving up on high school: How income inequality affects drop-out rates

    Learn more about the research by reading the full paper, "Income inequality, social mobility, and the decision to drop out of high school," or exploring the interactive data below. More On ...

  7. High School Dropouts After They Exit School: Challenges and Directions

    In this article, I first provide a brief review of sociological research on high school dropouts, emphasizing the demographics of dropouts and reasons for dropping out. I then discuss the possible role of human capital differences, signaling theory, and social closure in creating worse outcomes for high school dropouts and outline the empirical ...

  8. 8 Summary of Recommendations

    High School Dropout, Graduation, and Completion Rates addresses these issues and to examine (1) the strengths, limitations, accuracy, and utility of the available dropout and completion measures; (2) the state of the art with respect to longitudinal data systems; and (3) ways that dropout and completion rates can be used to improve policy and ...

  9. PDF Dropping Out of High School: Prevalence, Risk Factors, and ...

    A Bleak Prospect. High school dropouts earn $9,200 less per year on average than those who graduate. Over the course of their lifetimes, they will earn an average of $375,000 less than high school graduates, and roughly $1 million less than college graduates (Center for Labor Market Studies, 2007).

  10. Read "Understanding Dropouts: Statistics, Strategies, and High-Stakes

    1 Background and Context. F ailure to complete high school has been recognized as a social problem in the United States for decades and, as discussed below, the individual and social costs of dropping out are considerable. Social scientists, policy makers, journalists, and the public have pondered questions about why students drop out, how many drop out, what happens to dropouts, and how young ...

  11. High school dropouts: Interactions between social context, self

    Research suggests that contextual, self-system, and school engagement variables influence dropping out from school. However, it is not clear how different types of contextual and self-system variables interact to affect students' engagement or contribute to decisions to dropout from high school.

  12. 5 Early Warning Indicators

    Other research has identified school-related factors associated with lower dropout rates, including high schools with smaller enrollments, more supportive teachers, positive relationships among students and school staff, and a more rigorous curriculum (Croninger and Lee, 2001; Lee and Burkham, 2000; McPartland and Jordan, 2001).

  13. Dropouts in America: How severe is the problem? What do we know about

    IMPORTANT: These research papers are not final versions; please do not quote or cite without the permission of the The Civil Rights Project. The following papers were presented during the conference Dropouts in America held on January 13, 2001, in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and co-sponsored with Achieve, Inc. "Easing the Transition to High School: An Investigation of Reform Practices to Promote ...

  14. Fast Facts: Dropout rates (16)

    Dropout rates. Question: What are the dropout rates of high school students? Response: The status dropout rate 1 represents the percentage of 16- to 24-year-olds who are not enrolled in school and have not earned a high school credential (either a diploma or an equivalency credential such as a GED certificate). In 2022, there were 2.1 million status dropouts between the ages of 16 and 24. 2 ...

  15. High School Dropouts: A Review of Issues and Evidence

    The problem of high school dropouts has generated increased interest among researchers, policymakers, and educators in recent years. This paper examines the many issues involved in trying to understand and solve this complex social and educational problem. The issues are grouped into four areas covering the incidence, causes, consequences, and ...

  16. A Public Health Perspective on School Dropout and Adult Outcomes: A

    National estimates suggest that each high school dropout costs the United States economy at least $250,000 over the course of his or her lifetime because of greater reliance on welfare and Medicaid, more criminal activity, poorer health, and lower tax contributions [].On average, the annual median income of a high school dropout is $25,000, compared to $46,000 for an individual with a high ...

  17. High school dropouts in the United States

    Research has shown that poor academic achievement is one of the strongest predictors of high school dropout. [6] This theory examines the mediation effect of poor academic achievement on other factors, such as deviant affiliation, personal deviance, family socialization and structural strains, associated with school dropout. [6] Essentially, it looks at how poor academic achievement interacts ...

  18. Helping High School Dropouts Improve Their Prospects

    Based on Census Bureau data (from 1965 to 2005), figure 1 compares the median family income of adults who dropped out of high school with that of adults who completed various levels of education ...

  19. 1 Introduction

    High school graduation and dropout rates have long been used as a central indicator of education system productivity and effectiveness and of social and economic well-being.Today, interest in the accuracy and usefulness of these statistics is particularly acute owing to a confluence of circumstances, including changing demographics, new legislative mandates, and heightened political pressures ...

  20. Trends in High School Dropout and Completion Rates in the United States

    Title: Trends in High School Dropout and Completion Rates in the United States: 2019. Description: The report draws on a wide array of surveys and administrative datasets to present statistics on high school dropout and completion rates at the state and national levels. The report includes estimates of the percentage of students who drop out in ...

  21. Facing the School Dropout Dilemma

    The fact that so many students never complete high school has a deep and wide-ranging impact on the U.S.'s long-term economic outlook. The U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) (2011) reports that the median income of persons ages 18 through 67 who had not completed high school was roughly $25,000 in 2009.

  22. Perspectives on the Factors Affecting Students' Dropout Rate During

    Different research studies conducted on the dropout rate in high schools have taken it as a complex process, resulting from several alterable and unalterable factors, responsible for influencing the students to leave the institution before graduation (Christenson et al., 2001).

  23. 'I'm Not the Success Story People Expected ...

    Knowing now that he had some undiagnosed learning difficulties, he explained that he failed the fourth and ninth grades -- and even dropped out of high school for a few months.

  24. High School Dropout, Graduation, and Completion Rates

    High school graduation and dropout rates have long been used as indicators of educational system productivity and effectiveness and of social and economic well being. While determining these rates may seem like a straightforward task, their calculation is in fact quite complicated. ... National Research Council. 2011. High School Dropout ...

  25. Jared Isaacman, the high-school dropout behind historic spacewalk

    Jared Isaacman, the high-school dropout behind historic spacewalk. ... At the age of 15, he dropped out of high school and later took a GED (a high-school equivalency exam), according to the ...